I Kalundborg Kommune forventes forbruget af grøn strøm at stige voldsomt i de kommende år. Der kan blive tale om mere end en fordobling frem til 2050. Hvor skal strømmen så komme fra? Energy Modelling Lab har deltaget i en grøn dialog i Kalundborg I Vordingborg forventes efterspørgslen på grøn strøm at stige i de kommende år. Det drejer sig dels om grøn strøm til at dække det almindelige forbrug til husholdninger, transport og erhverv, dels til det planlagte PtX-anlæg på erhvervshavnen. Hvor skal strømmen komme fra? Energy Modelling Lab har deltaget i en grøn dialog i Vordingborg på et borgermøde, organiseret af Teknologirådet.
Forbrug af arealer
Det er især de store industrivirksomheder, der får brug for store mængder grøn strøm. Det gælder blandt andre Gyproc, Novo Nordisk, Novozymes og Kalundborg Refinery. Der er mange spørgsmål at tage stilling til. Et af dem er, om Kalundborg Kommune skal gå efter at blive selvforsynende med grøn strøm eller satse på at få strøm udefra.
Et vigtigt grundvilkår er hvilke arealer, der kan benyttes. Grøn energiproduktion kræver forholdsvis store arealer. Energy Modelling Lab har udarbejdet et eksempel på, hvordan der kan produceres 1 million MWh om året i Kommunen. Kalundborg får muligvis brug for omkring 1,5 million MWh eller mere i 2050.
Vi præsenterede eksemplet på et borgermøde arrangeret af Teknologirådet. Vi viste blandt andet hvor mange hektar, de forskellige teknologier skal bruge for at producere 1 million MWh om året:
I eksemplet mixer vi, så 35 % af strømmen kommer fra havvind, 35 % fra landvind, 20 procent fra sol og de resterende 10 % fra træ og biogas. Der bliver der anvendt 9000 hektar i alt, heraf 1300 hektar til havvindmøller. Eksemplet indebærer, at der er produktion af grøn energi på omtrent 13 procent af Kalundborg Kommunes areal.
Præsentationen gav de fremmødte Kalundborg-borgere et godt grundlag for en dialog om grøn energi. En række fremtrædende, lokale erhvervsledere er på forkant med den grønne omstilling, og mange borgere er både engageret og vidende. Erfaringen viser, at dialog kan bane vejen for øget opbakning til de forandringer, omstillingen til grøn energi indebærer.
What would be the impact on carbon emissions if a country replaced 50% of coal-based energy production with solar solutions? Or increase wind energy production to meet growing demand instead of increasing gas-based energy production? We can obtain the answers to such questions by running simulations or creating scenarios in advanced mathematical models.
For several years now, Ida Græsted Jensen, PhD, and partner in Energy Modelling Lab, has been teaching how to understand and use energy system modelling. One of the courses is organized by DANIDA Fellowship Centre. It is focusing on the Balmorel Model and is taking place at the Technical University of Denmark.
The participants learn to construct a Balmorel Model tailored to their own country. The purpose is to find the optimal future investments in energy systems. They will be able to understand large-scale energy system analyses and analyze energy systems. Additionally, critical thinking on results, use, and key assumptions plays an important part in the course.
The course targets professionals, who are either new to modelling in Balmorel or need to refresh their skills. Participants must have basic knowledge of energy systems.
Energy Modelling Lab is supporting the Danish Council on Climate Change. We are updating and handing over the Danish Biomass Resource Model, DK-BioRes, that we developed a few years ago. DK-BioRes is a flow-based model and contains all Danish biomass resources from agriculture, forestry, and aquaculture. The updated model will feature several technologies for reducing carbon emissions and nitrification. As part of the project, we are building up the capacities of the staff at the Council so that they can use the model themselves.
With the DK-BioRes model at hand, The Danish Council on Climate Change can develop comprehensive scenarios of climate neutrality concerning land use, yield, and emissions from agriculture, aquaculture, and forestry. They can integrate the use of biomass and consumer behavior in the scenario. The project is thus enhancing the capacities of the Council to provide suggestions for cost-effective climate policy solutions.
Energy Modelling Lab is updating the flow-based model DK-BioRES that we have developed. The model features all Danish biomass resources from agriculture, forestry, and aquaculture.
The model can generate scenarios of the impact of different strategies and of increasing the use of technologies such as manure acidification and air cleaning to reduce carbon emissions.
CAPACITY BUILDING
Energy Modelling Lab trains the staff of the Danish Climate Council on updating and using the model to develop scenarios. We also include training on quality assurance of the scenarios.
By the end of the project, we are handing over the DK-BioRES Model to the Danish Climate Council assuring full ownership by the staff.
Energy Modelling Lab is updating and redesigning the energy systems model we tailored for Viet Nam, the TIMES-Vietnam model. We are developing the scenarios that will be used for the analyses in the Energy Outlook Report 2023.
Viet Nam is already making headways in planning for the energy sector and is heading to reach net-zero emissions in 2050. Viet Nam Energy Outlook Report 2021 examined possible pathways for the development of the energy sector, and it featured a trajectory to reach the net-zero target for the first time.
One major finding of the Outlook Report 2021 was that a sustainable energy system will enable self-sufficiency. Another was that wind and solar energy are cheaper long-term solutions than coal and gas. At present, coal is the leading source of power.
The TIMES-Vietnam model supports strategic energy planning as it enables decision-makers to identify the most cost-effective and feasible pathways to achieve a sustainable green transition.
MODELLING
The first step is to meet with our Vietnamese partners and agree on the questions to address, relevant analyses to undertake, and scenarios to design.
Energy Modelling Lab then redesigns and updates the TIMES-Vietnam model. We strengthen the representation of new decarbonization technologies and integrate relevant constraints.
SCENARIO ANALYSIS
The core scenarios focus on the realization of the net-zero target. They allow for a comprehensive investigation of optimal solutions. The results are then reflected in recommendations for policymaking.
The process fosters a wide consensus and understanding of Viet Nam’s energy challenges and opportunities in the mid-to long term.
REPORT
The Viet Nam Energy Outlook Report 2023 identifies the cost-optimized solutions that support Viet Nam’s energy system to become sustainable.
The Report allows for decision-makers to explore the system-wide implications of fulfilling targets by 2050. It also shows how Viet Nam can contribute to fulfilling the Paris Agreement on climate change.
Viet Nam is a regional manufactural hub and one of the most dynamic countries in East Asia, with the GDP annual growth rate averaging 6.2 percent from 2000 until 2023. According to the analysis in the Viet Nam Energy Outlook Report 2021, electricity consumption will more than double in 2050 compared to 2020.
Viet Nam has pledged to reach the target of net-zero emissions by 2050. This means the power system must meet more than 70 percent of the total final energy demand with renewable energy-based electricity.
Energy Modelling Lab supports the endeavors to enhance energy planning in Viet Nam. We assist the Vietnamese authorities by building up their planning capacities concerning scenario-based, long-term modelling of the Vietnamese energy system. To this end, we are integrating an updated technology catalog in the present energy system model. We have included electricity storage solutions, P2X, nuclear technologies, optimal use of biomass, and carbon capture and storage in the catalog.
MODELLING
Energy Modelling Lab updates the technology catalog that is integrated into the present energy system model.
The catalog includes decarbonization technologies that are not yet being used and describes costs and relevant technical parameters.
ANALYSIS
The catalog contributes to fostering data-driven discussions and understanding of the potential of decarbonization technologies.
The expected outcome of this process is a broader consensus on the potential.
RESULTS
The results will be integrated into the existing energy system model and can create first insights into cost-optimal applications of these technologies.
The results will contribute to making the Viet Nam Energy Outlook Report 2023 more comprehensive and enable decision-making on investments.
Kuwait is becoming one of the hottest countries on the planet and faces profound social and ecological challenges from continued global warming and the transition from fossil fuels. The government has pledged to reach net-zero emissions in the oil and gas sector by 2050 and by 2060 for the whole country.
At present, oil accounts for 90 % of the national revenue and more than half of GDP, and renewable energy for less than 1 % of demand. Kuwait thus needs clever and comprehensive solutions. With abundant wind and solar resources, the potential is at hand.
Energy Modelling Lab supports steps to reach net-zero emissions in Kuwait by 2060. We are developing an energy systems model, the TIMES-KUWIAT, that allows us to identify the least-cost and most feasible green energy systems. Based on these results we can designate pathways to integrate the new solutions across five key sectors: Energy, Industry, Agriculture, land use, and Waste.
MODELLING
Energy Modelling Lab develops a database for energy and GHG emissions, builds consensus on ambitions, and shortlists decarbonization options.
We develop the TIMES-KUWAIT model featuring different scenarios including rapid expansion of the renewable fuel market and reduced exports.
SCENARIO ANALYSIS
Analyzing the different scenarios allows for informed decision-making on the optimal solutions integrated across sectors.
Socioeconomic and environmental impacts and co-benefits such as improved health are identified and considered.
RESULTS
Results are presented in a website format with open access and all key results are shared in Excel sheets.
Users can move between scenarios and study results like emissions and energy consumption by sector and costs.
Jordan is considered to be among the world’s most vulnerable to drought as a result of climate change. Major challenges are aridity, water scarcity, heavy reliance on fossil energy imports, rapid population growth, and urbanization.
The government is now addressing the need to transition to a greener and more resilient economy. One important step is developing a National Long-Term Low Emission Strategy and Options Report 2050.
Energy Modelling Lab is contributing to developing a low-emission strategy in Jordan. We are creating a tailored energy systems model, the TIMES-Jordan model. This modelling framework represents eight key sectors and their interconnections. By embedding baseline scenarios, we can estimate the impact of different options for decarbonization. We then create a shortlist of the least cost and most feasible options and designate the optimal pathways.
MODELLING We have built a tailored energy systems model, the TIMES-Jordan, using the TIMES energy systems modelling framework developed under IEA.
The model includes a full investment catalog for the entire energy sector and shows the economically optimal pathways through the jungle of technological solutions.
SCENARIO ANALYSIS Through a series of scenarios, we can investigate the consequences of different climate scenarios and consider prioritized mitigation actions.
We also identify and consider socioeconomic and environmental impacts and co-benefits such as improved health and energy savings.
REPORT The final report proposes optimal decarbonization pathways and provides policy recommendations that are validated through workshops with key stakeholders.
The Jordanian Government will have a solid basis for a continuously informed decision process as we will build local partner capacity to use and update the model.
The Korea New Green Deal highlights that a total of $15.3 billion is invested, in Zero Energy Public Buildings by 2025. The focus on Zero Energy Buildings has a specific target on schools including remodeling old school buildings. The aim is to make them energy-efficient and run on solar power.
In this study, the Energy Modeling Lab analyses the impacts of changing the energy supply in South Korea’s school buildings. The three focus areas are greenhouse gasses, air pollution, and health, and economic consequences.
IEA (International Energy Agency) Technology Collaboration Programme ETSAP (Energy Technology Systems Analysis Program) – iea-etsap.org
EML is an active member of the ETSAP community. EML has and continues to contribute to the ETSAP community in 2020 and 2021. We continue the Danish collaboration and participation at the IEA-ETSAP, Annex X to XIV under the new Annex XV. Our partners and consultants are actively developing TIMES models in several projects, regularly attend ETSAP’s biannual workshops and webinars, took VEDA-TIMES training, were and will continue teaching energy systems analysis courses at the post-graduate level by deploying the TIMES framework, develop auxiliary tools to improve pre-and post-processing tasks and successfully migrated from VEDA1 to VEDA2 during ongoing projects.
The work builds on the NETP projects by complementing the cost-effective pathways with a deeper analysis of uncertainty and alternative socio-technical framework conditions. This includes policy, technology shifts, economic outlook, developments in other countries and other societal changes that have an impact on the Nordic region – DK, FI ,IS ,NO and SE.
This project develops an independent study of the Ukrainian energy system, which analyses development scenarios for input to national energy strategy documents and provides policy recommendations to achieve national energy and climate goals. Furthermore, the modelling results of this project can also be used to contribute to the National Energy and Climate Change Plan for the period 2021-2030 (NECP).
The objective of the project is that Vietnam’s energy system becomes more sustainable through the implementation of cost-optimized policy and planning by assisting MOIT and EREA to commission, develop, and analyze comprehensive long-term energy scenarios.
This technical assistance tackles the needs of Azerbaijan to review and update the Long-Term Energy Strategy (LTES) in light of the recent situation in AZ. Another important focus in this technical assistance is to build up capacity in Azerbaijan to continue the work with LTES and in general to work with energy system analysis as a method for planning future investments and points of focus.
Meetings
Biannual workshops
The biannual workshops focus on the practice of modelling and use of ETSAP tools e.g. MARKAL/TIMES modelling frameworks, participation in training activities, and collaboration in projects related to the improvement of ETSAP tools. In general, the contribution to these workshops shall be based on current and future projects, particularly within EU, Nordic, and Danish research programs – by involving PhD students from Danish universities.
Our director and partners participated in several IEA-ETSAP semi-annual meetings over the last years:
For all past and coming workshops please see here.
Webinars
Members of EML attended several ETSAP webinars:
2020-11-26: How to build a TIMES model from scratch
2020-12-10: Modelling clean energy transitions: approaches and tools for the World Energy Outlook and the Energy Technology Perspectives
2021-01-21: Developing and using TIMES models with git, GitHub, and VEDA
2021-02-23: ETSAP webinar: High temporal and spatial resolution modelling in TIMES models
2021-03-30: Stochastic Modelling of VRES in TIMES and Modelling high VRES with hourly TS resolution, unit commitment, dispatch, and capacity expansion in TIMES
Training
Ida participated in the 3 day ETSAP VEDA-Times web training.
2020-12-09 to 2020-12-11: Basic Training Course on VEDA-TIMES, Web Training by Maurizio Gargiulo from E4SMA
EML is teaching energy system modelling on the basis of the TIMES modelling framework. In the current term, Mikkel and Kenneth are offering the course TIMES-DK modelling to graduate students at SDU. The duration is approx. 20 weeks from February to June 2021.
Background
The students are given insights into the TIMES modelling framework and will deploy the Danish model TIMES-DK to assess the Danish energy systems within the scope of their assignments.
Objectives
The course aims to provide the students with knowledge and abilities to work in the TIMES framework, which includes but is not limited to the following topics:
Sector coupling of the full energy system
Time aspect in the making of energy system assessment
Resource barriers such as bioenergy, wind, solar, and fossil potentials
Carbon budgets and national GHG targets
Method
Weekly lectures combined with practical assignments and project work in groups. The results of case works are an integrated part of the teaching and will be presented and evaluated during the course.
Auxilliary tools
At EML we develop several auxiliary tools. Currently, we are working on two tools, one to include biomass potentials for energy use in our analysis and the other to seamlessly aggregate and transmit data from a VEDA batch export Excel file to our websites hosted by Tokni:
A biomass model – for more information contact Ida
Within the Nordic Clean Energy Scenarios (NCES2020) project EML migrated the development of the open-source Nordic TIMES model (ON-TIMES) from VEDA1 to VEDA2. It includes all of the 5 Nordic countries, i.e. Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden and serves the purpose of informing decision-makers and supporting the common Nordic commitment to carbon neutrality through strong, collaborative Nordic research and analysis.
