We are experts on using advanced mathematical modelling frameworks, especially the TIMES energy system model generator and the heat and power model Balmorel.
We have developed the Danish Bioresource model (DK-BioRes) that features a compilation of data on all biomass resources available in the agriculture, aquaculture, and forestry sectors of Denmark.
When relevant, we use tools such as CGE modelling, Spreadsheet models, Land-use, and air pollution health impact analysis. We have developed a special tool for dividing global CO2 between countries, the carbon budget tool, and for looking at tradeoffs between economic and technical development, IPAT(D).
The TIMES model framework
The TIMES model is internationally recognized and developed under The Energy Technology Systems Analysis Program (ETSAP). ETSAP is one of the longest-running Technology Collaboration Programme of the International Energy Agency (IEA). ETSAP currently has as contracting parties 21 countries, and one private sector sponsor.
The IEA-ETSAP community leads a major initiative for open-source solutions for energy scenario modelling needs. The staff of Energy Modelling Lab is actively involved in the ETSAP Community. We participate in the international collaboration on continuously improving the TIMES model and are committed to documenting innovations and sharing knowledge.
The TIMES energy system model offers solutions for the compilation of long-term energy scenarios and in-depth national, multi-country, and global energy and environmental analyses. It can assist in the design of least-cost pathways for sustainable energy systems. It is ideally suited for the preparation of Long-Term Energy Strategies (LTES), Low-Emissions Development Strategies (LEDS), and Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) as well as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) roadmaps. The model has been used as a starting point in several countries to underpin their NDC analyses.
Top down or bottom up?
We use the model in two ways. In the top-down approach, the model designates the optimal path to a certain goal. For example, net zero emissions in 2050 on country level. In the bottom-up approach, the model is used to test the impact of new policies such as a CO2 tax or obligatory installation of solar panels.
Tailored and updated TIMES Models
TIMES-DK has been used to analyze the future of district heating, evaluate the health impact of the green transition, and test the climate policies of all Danish political parties.
TIMES-VNM is being used by the government to develop and implement a long-term energy strategy for the Vietnamese government to reach net-zero emissions by 2050.
TIMES-AZ is used to support the local government in developing and implementing a long-term energy strategy.
TIMES-Ukraine supports the government in Ukraine in planning for its future green energy system.
The Danish Bioresource model (DK-BioRes)
The bioresource model can be used to evaluate the consequences of different political means. In the model a range of parameters can be adjusted such as the area distribution or animal production, and then the model will show the consequences for both climate and the available biomass.
The model is flow-based and tracks the biomass resources throughout the agriculture and forestry sector.
If you want to create your own scenarios, the model is available open source in our GitHub repository.
MODELLING DANISH AGRICULTURE
The model is built as part of a project for the Danish Energy Agency.
CLIMATE NEUTRAL AGRIGULTURE
The model has been used in a study showing two paths to a climate-neutral agriculture and forestry sector in Denmark.
Balmorel is a flexible power and district heating model that – with the right data – can cover any region or country. Balmorel is used for analyzing more detailed within the power system and can be used for both long and shorter-term analysis.
The model was originally developed to model the region around the Baltic Sea but has been applied throughout the world.
Carbon budget tool
The carbon budget tool can be used to divide the remaining global CO2 budget as stated in the IPCC reports. Different parameters can be used as weights like population, GDP, and emission.
IPAT(D) is meant to give an illustrative visualization of the impact of population size, affluence, and technological development on climate and Ecological Footprint.