Viet Nam Energy Outlook Report 2023 shows that the country is working steadfastly to reach net zero by 2050 while facing the challenge of a fast-growing economy and a huge increase in electricity demand.
Some of the key takeaways of the Viet Nam Energy Outlook Report are
• The green energy transition is cost-efficient for Viet Nam • A steady increase in renewable energy investments is required from today • Energy efficiency is a cost-effective option to reach the net-zero target
One of the keys to this successful development is strategic energy planning. The Vietnamese government uses advanced energy system models, the TIMES-Vietnam and the Balmorel-Vietnam, for decision-making.
We have supported the development of the TIMES-Vietnam model for almost 10 years through our engagements in the Partnership Programme between Viet Nam and Denmark, headed by the Danish Energy Agency.
We have developed an innovative model enabling the planning of an optimal energy island. The model makes it possible to generate scenarios and explore how to plan for the maximum economic returns for investors and developers. By analyzing various scenarios we can assess how differing conditions might affect the island’s operations, capacity, investment, and profitability.
Correspondingly, the model can generate scenarios showing the optimal scale of production of various e-fuels such as hydrogen, ammonia, methanol, and kerosene. Likewise, we can probe the most cost-efficient solutions for the management of electricity transmission.
The model is the result of a master’s thesis that we have supervised. It’s developed using the TIMES modelling framework and diverges from the prevalent demand-driven approach by adopting a price-driven strategy.
North Sea Energy Island
As a case study, the master’s thesis explores the strategic development and optimization of a North Sea Energy Island. The Danish government is planning for several energy islands in the North Sea. The Energy Island project directly addresses the European Union’s imperative to boost energy security and diminish its dependence on fossil fuel imports amidst evolving geopolitical and energy market dynamics.
The model employs an hourly resolution. It thus provides a detailed understanding of the island’s configuration and operations, enhancing the reliability of the results.
The developed model tool has proven reliable although some simplifications concerning the electricity market and transport operations were necessary. It can be integrated with other demand-driven studies to determine optimal operational strategies and future projections.
Results
The findings indicate that Germany and Denmark are the most viable markets for exporting the island’s electricity. However, producing hydrogen for export to the Netherlands and Belgium appears to be the most lucrative option, given the high industrial demand and pricing in these regions.
The study also notes that producing other e-fuels on the island would be economically feasible only under specific conditions with sufficiently high prices. These results suggest that the island’s most effective role may be as a hydrogen hub.
Furthermore, using an hourly resolution has proven instrumental in understanding storage operations on the island and achieving more dependable outcomes.
Modelling
We have developed a model of a North Sea energy island using the TIMES modelling framework.
Scenarios
We have generated various scenarios and assessed how differing conditions might affect the island’s operations, capacity, investment, and profitability.
Publication
The research is part of a master’s thesis at Danish Technical University.
We are hosting and supervising PhD student Daniele Mosso for one year. Daniele Mosso is doing his PhD at Politecnico di Torino. He is focusing on developing tools to modelling the water-energy-food nexus. The objective is to answer the following question: To what extent can energy be produced without significantly harming natural resources and related sectors?
Daniele Mosso spent the initial period of his PhD examining the major factors affecting the sustainability of energy systems. He concluded that land use, or the consumption of natural resources, is a major issue.
Limitations of existing models
Meanwhile, the existing Energy System Optimization Models (ESOMs) have limitations concerning sustainability and environmental aspects. The limitations can be overcome in several ways. Based on his initial research, Daniele Mosso opted to develop a tool to represent the sectors of agriculture, forestry, and land use (AFOLU) in an ESOM. The tool should make it possible to account for land and water consumption and related emissions.
Subsequently, the research of Daniele Mosso is in line with a new research project Energy Modelling Lab launched recently. The aim is to develop a prototype module representing the AFOLU sector for the TIMES modelling framework. The TIMES model is an energy system optimization model.
Exploring a soft-linking methodology
Furthermore, Daniele Mosso plans to devote the last part of his PhD to exploring a soft-linking methodology. One possibility is direct coupling with an integrated assessment model (IAM) representing natural resources.
At Politecnico di Torino, Daniele Mosso is a member of the MAHTEP Group (Modeling of Advanced Heat Transfer and Energy Problems). It’s a research team established at the end of 2019.
Modelling
We will develop a prototype module representing the AFOLU sector for the TIMES modelling framework.
Scenarios
We will test scenarios of the impacts of the energy consumption of the AFOLU sector.
Publication
The research is part of a PhD to be finalized in 2026.
We are contributing to a project designating low-carbon solutions for Azerbaijan. The project result should be a Roadmap recommending relevant policies and technologies. The full title is “Low-Carbon Solutions in the Electric Power Sector of Azerbaijan Technical Assistance Project”.
Azerbaijan relies heavily on oil and gas, which has brought significant economic growth over the years. Oil, gas, and related petroleum products accounted for 91 percent of Azerbaijan’s total exports in 2022 and almost 48 percent of its GDP. Likewise, in 2021, natural gas dominated the electricity generation mix (94 percent). It was followed by hydropower (4.6 percent), waste and biomass incineration (0.7 percent), and solar and wind (0.5 percent).
Meanwhile, there is a vast potential for solar and wind power that investors have already begun to develop.
TIMES-Azerbaijan
Energy Modelling Lab carries out part of the energy systems modelling work for the project. Subsequently, we are updating and tailoring the TIMES-Azerbaijan model we have developed for the EU Commission in 2021. We are using the model to create three scenarios:
A Business As Usual (BAU) scenario reflects current and planned policies concerning low carbon penetration.
One scenario assumes high economic growth and targets carbon neutrality by 2050.
One scenario assumes low economic growth and targets carbon neutrality by 2050.
Stakeholder engagement
We have also been assigned to design and take charge of stakeholder engagement, consultation, and communications. The aim is to foster an understanding of the modelling approaches. The key stakeholders should reach and maintain agreement on scenario assumptions, and we should obtain the necessary feedback. The overall objective is to ensure the full capacity of ownership of the key stakeholders. Additionally, the Roadmap should be credible, robust, and functional.
Energy Modelling Lab has been subcontracted for the project by Tetra Tech. The project is implemented within the Memorandum of Understanding between the Ministry of Energy of Azerbaijan and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development EBRD on technical support related to the development of the electric power sector of the Republic of Azerbaijan.
Modelling
We are updating and tailoring the TIMES-Azerbaijan model using the TIMES energy systems modelling framework.
Scenarios
We are creating a business as usual (BAU) scenario and two scenarios targeting net zero for the energy sector by 2050.
Stakeholder engagement
We are taking charge of designing the consultation and communications to ensure the full ownership of key stakeholders.
The study aims to identify the policy instruments needed to accelerate the uptake of hydrogen fuel cells for the shipping industries in Denmark, Norway, and Sweden.
Hydrogen fuel cells are promising for reducing emissions from shipping. However, their adoption is limited by high costs, lack of regulations, and lack of infrastructure. This is why there is a need for policies that spur investments in hydrogen fuel cells.
The three policy packages
Together with our fellow researchers, we tested three policy packages with different degrees of ambition (low, medium, and high). Our findings indicated that the proposed taxes on CO2 emissions and fossil fuels can help drive the transition away from fossil fuels. Meanwhile, the complete transition requires a ban on the use of fossil fuels.
The three policy packages were formulated based on discussions during workshops with key stakeholders from Nordic Shipping. During the workshops, we also learned that the participants are paying high attention to a “chicken and egg” paradox: Without the demand for green hydrogen, no supply, and vice versa. This has not been reflected in previous studies.
Correspondingly, a coordinated regional approach and cross-sector and cross-industry collaboration are needed. Otherwise, we cannot overcome the paradox and help balance the supply and demand for Nordic shipping
Modelling
MODEL
We used the TIMES-NEU model, an economic model generator for energy systems, to evaluate the three different policy packages. EML has developed the TIMES-NEU model.
SCENARIOS
Estimated total fuel consumption in PJ/year; CO2 emissions by fuel in thousand tons of CO2 emissions/year; revenue from the tax on fossil fuels in million Euros/year; ferry segment fuel consumption in PJ/year.
RESULTS
The main finding was that policies are needed to spur investments. Meanwhile, it’s necessary to ban fossil fuels to complete the green transition of shipping.
Other scenarios included in the study show estimated CAPEX and OPEX in million Euros/year, estimated CAPEX and OPEX for the ferry segment in million, and estimated CAPEX and OPEX of the mandate of ferries to use hydrogen in comparison to the policy packages in million Euros/year.
We will be collaborating with Danish, Swedish, Norwegian, and Finnish partners on a major research project entitled SpeedLocal. The aim is to speeding up the Nordic green transition. Together we will develop guidance tools for addressing the “not in my backyard” complexities and the challenges of integrating energy planning on the national level with implementation on the local level.
The research project is a transdisciplinary initiative. It engages experts in stakeholder engagement, policy analysis, landscape analysis, participatory processes, and energy system modelling. The final guidance tools will also reflect the results from three case studies: the Norwegian municipality of Trondelag, the Swedish municipality of Skaraborg, and the Danish municipality of Bornholm.
Emphasis on local values
In these places, the local authorities are in the process of implementing national energy policies. EML will focus on adapting the TIMES-Nordic energy system model to work on municipality levels. Also, we will work on the case study of Bornholm. Working closely together with Bornholm municipality, we will identify the barriers to green transition and strategies to overcome them.
An important dimension of the project is the emphasis on the values of local nature and landscapes. An overarching aim is thus to find ways to integrate local insights and considerations into the broader national and Nordic energy planning analyses. By doing so, the legitimacy and policy relevance could improve.
Modelling
The TIMES-Nordic model will be adapted for local cases and integrate specific constraints
Analysis
The analysis of the results will be translated into a Strategy Kit that contains instructions and guidance.
Results
The Strategy Kit can be utilized to formulate evidence-based policy recommendations.
At present, the agricultural and forestry sectors’ emissions account for almost 20% of the total global emissions. Even so, these two sectors are largely neglected in the existing energy system modelling frameworks. There is simply no available data module to enable analyses. Meanwhile, we expect that our new research project will remedy this.
The research project is named Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use Sector Modeling in TIMES (AFOLU). The result should be a demo model of a new data module. The demo model will be standardized and flexible. Thus, it will enable energy system modellers to properly model factors such as the forest capacity of CO2 uptake. Other important factors could be the consequences of replacing crops for biofuel production or optimizing irrigation systems for instance.
Energy Modelling Lab will carry out the research project together with four partners: E4SMA, the Institute for Energy Technology (IFE), University College Cork (UCC), and VITO. We expect to finalize the new module in 2025. We are receiving funding from The Energy Technology Systems Analysis Program, IEA-ETSAP.
Transformative step
Our project builds on ongoing work by Energy Modelling Lab and E4SMA to develop a demo version of the AFOLU module. The primary objective is to consolidate knowledge from various partners and create a standardized, flexible AFOLU module that can seamlessly integrate with any TIMES model.
The new module will enable the ETSAP community to conduct a more integrated, holistic scenario analysis. It will be possible to consider the dynamic interactions between energy systems and the AFOLU sector. Moreover, we see it as a transformative step toward enabling energy system modellers to address climate change impacts and designate pathways to sustainable, net-zero economies.
Duration: 2023-2025
Client: The Energy Technology Systems Analysis Program, IEA-ETSAP
We have been assigned by the Danish company Hybrid Greentech to develop a long-term forecast of ancillary services costs in Sweden. The forecast spans until 2050. At present, the electrification drive is inevitably leading to a surge in power demand. Consequently, a fundamental reconfiguration of our energy infrastructure is taking place. It must incorporate both intermittent renewables, flexible electricity demand, and the provision of ancillary services.
So far, ancillary services have often been the unsung heroes of the power sector as these essential support systems ensure grid reliability. To make the forecast, we integrated and updated previous investigations into power production and demand.
Potential innovative technologies
We took into consideration the production of green hydrogen in the Nordics. The flexibility of hydrogen production in the Nordics could be an important factor in the ancillary services market since a reduction of this production would most likely result in wider use of battery technologies.
Potential innovative technologies could also have a high impact on the market for ancillary services. For example, the increasing number of electric vehicles means a large increase in power consumption. This increase, if managed flexibly, could potentially contain a total battery capacity of 250 GWh with a charging capacity of 50 GW. Such a capacity could support all the balancing requirements in all of Sweden if the potential is fully utilized.
Electricity prices
A long-term forecast of electricity production, consumption, and prices in Sweden was part of the analysis. In general, from 2020 to 2030 Sweden is expected to be a net exporter of electricity and from 2035 and onwards to be a net importer. Concerning consumption, an increase of about 80% in consumption from industry from 2020 to 2050 is expected.
According to modelling results, the present price difference between the two Northern and the two Southern regions will decrease over time.
Modelling
We based our forecast of ancillary services costs on a qualitative assessment of research projects made by EML, assessing ancillary services markets in the TIMES models and other international research studies on the topic.
Analysis
We analyzed future power demand, the flexibility of electricity-demanding technologies in the power spot market, and the development of renewable intermittent technologies based on the integrated assessment model TIMES-NEU, a comprehensive energy system model covering the entire Northern European energy system.
Results
All results and calculations were presented in a comprehensive report to Hybrid Greentech.
What could be the best locations for PtX plants in the Nordics? The answer to this question is one of the expected outcomes of the PtX Sector Coupling and LCA project. Energy Modelling Lab is collaborating with 13 partners. We are bringing our expertise in scenario analysis and advanced modelling to the project.
The PtX Sector Coupling and LCA project is part of the MissionGreenFuels partnership launched by the Danish Innovation Fund. The purpose of the project is twofold. The partners are working together on further developing existing energy systems and Life Cycle Assessment tools, methodologies, and models. The expected result is to create better ways to determine optimal ways of integrating PtX into the green transition.
Correspondingly, the partners are collaborating on using these models for assessments when it comes to defining the optimal locations of new PtX plants. This includes taking into consideration multiple factors such as grid capabilities, market forecasts, biomass, and carbon availability. Sector coupling and co-optimization of gas, electricity, hydrogen, and district heating are included as well. The models can generate different scenarios to be analyzed.
Our expertise
Energy Modelling Lab brings our expertise in using advanced mathematical models and modelling frameworks to the project, especially the use of the TIMES-NEU tool and model. Our assignment is to focus on describing sector coupling and potential synergies from the modelled scenarios. By analyzing the scenarios, we will clarify the optimal locations of PtX plants in Nordic countries in terms of cost-effectiveness.
Modelling
Developing and updating the TIMES-NEU model.
Scenario analyses
Analyze modelled scenarios to describe sector coupling and potential synergies.
Results
A portfolio of projects where cross-fertilization across the individual projects is a priority to secure knowledge sharing, learning, and development.
Mission and vision
The vision of the MissionGreenFuels partnership is to contribute substantially to the decarbonization of the transport, aviation, and shipping sectors and to support Danish research, innovation, growth, job creation, and export potential within the field of green fuels.
The MissionGreenFuels partnership is one of the four Innomissions launched by the Danish Innovation Fund. Innomission is funded by the Danish Innovation Fund by a 700 million DKK grant from the Danish government and funds from the NextGenerationEU program.
Energy Modelling Lab has analyzed the future energy market in Northern Europe that will develop under the green transition. The analysis was an assignment from COWI. It has been used as a reference in the report Roadmap to a Future, Danish hydrogen infrastructure, published by the CIP Foundation in May 2023.
The analysis focuses on Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Germany, Poland, Holland, Belgium, and UK. It probes the potential future markets of energy and fuels including PtX fuels from now on and until 2050.
Based on data from the Danish Energy Agency, the Danish production of electricity is expected to increase by almost 900 % by 2050. The increase is primarily due to offshore wind parks. It’s assumed that the offshore wind parks will be established in connection with planned “energy islands”; two to three in the North Sea and one in the Baltic Sea. Also, there are plans to establish electrolysis facilities and we assume they will be established on the energy islands.
Domestic demand
Domestic electricity demand is expected to remain almost constant due to energy-saving measures. But the overall expected increase could be about sevenfold from now on and until 2050, due to the planned expansion of PtX facilities. The bulk of the potential electricity production would thus be used for the production of green hydrogen for export. Denmark could potentially produce one-third of the total green hydrogen produced in the area, that our analysis covers.
The demand for hydrogen in Northern Europe is estimated to grow dramatically. According to the prognosis in the analysis, Holland, Belgium, and Germany will be the main purchasers. The estimated value of the potential, Danish green hydrogen export is 100 billion DKK pr. year.
Germany or Sweden
The prognosis is based on the assumption, that Germany’s capacity for hydrogen production will remain rather limited. This assumption relies on calculations showing that Danish offshore wind parks will produce slightly cheaper electricity than German facilities. Meanwhile, the likelihood that Germany will establish a large-scale production remains high.
An alternative scenario not included in the published analysis showed that Sweden could become the main purchaser of Danish-produced hydrogen by 2050. This is mainly due to estimates showing that production costs in Sweden are higher than in Denmark.
Energy Modelling Labs has updated the TIMES energy system model for the analysis. We developed it further to cover Northern Europe which resulted in developing the TIMES-NEU. The TIMES model is internationally recognized and developed by an IEA working group.
MODELLING
Energy Modelling Lab has updated the Open Nordic TIMES model (ON-TIMES) and developed it further to the Northern Europe TIMES model (TIMES-NEU).
SCENARIO ANALYSIS
Energy Modelling Lab has probed on the future energy market that will develop under the Green Deal on climate neutrality by 2050.
RESULTS
Results and scenarios are collected in the report mentioned above.
