Agricultural and forestry sectors’ emissions

At present, the agricultural and forestry sectors’ emissions account for almost 20% of the total global emissions. Even so, these two sectors are largely neglected in the existing energy system modelling frameworks. There is simply no available data module to enable analyses. Meanwhile, we expect that our new research project will remedy this.

The research project is named Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use Sector Modeling in TIMES (AFOLU). The result should be a demo model of a new data module. The demo model will be standardized and flexible. Thus, it will enable energy system modellers to properly model factors such as the forest capacity of CO2 uptake. Other important factors could be the consequences of replacing crops for biofuel production or optimizing irrigation systems for instance.

Energy Modelling Lab will carry out the research project together with four partners: E4SMA, the Institute for Energy Technology (IFE), University College Cork (UCC), and VITO. We expect to finalize the new module in 2025. We are receiving funding from The Energy Technology Systems Analysis Program, IEA-ETSAP.

Transformative step

Our project builds on ongoing work by Energy Modelling Lab and E4SMA to develop a demo version of the AFOLU module. The primary objective is to consolidate knowledge from various partners and create a standardized, flexible AFOLU module that can seamlessly integrate with any TIMES model.

The new module will enable the ETSAP community to conduct a more integrated, holistic scenario analysis. It will be possible to consider the dynamic interactions between energy systems and the AFOLU sector. Moreover, we see it as a transformative step toward enabling energy system modellers to address climate change impacts and designate pathways to sustainable, net-zero economies.

Duration: 2023-2025

Client: The Energy Technology Systems Analysis Program, IEA-ETSAP

Budget: Euro 68,000

Reference: Kathleen Vaillancourt

Partners: E4SMA, the Institute for Energy Technology (IFE), University College Cork (UCC), and VITO

EML team: Kenneth Karlsson and Ida Græsted Jensen

Model: TIMES