In the near future wind and solar will take over the electricity market. As a result the thermal power and district heating plants will close down faster than the Danish Energy Agency projects.
In this analysis for Dansk Fjernvarme, Energy Modelling Lab has dived into the details of the future of district heating in Denmark, to explore where the heat will come from, and if our energy system will get too vulnerable without the thermal powerplants.
In the future district heating will primarily come from large scale heat pumps and surplus heat from PtX-plants and data centers.
The thermal power and heat plants are being phased out faster than the Danish Energy Agency projects.
An energy system with a low diversity comes with an increased risk of failure.
The climate agenda, new technologies, and geopolitical uncertainties all affect the energy system. District heating is a hot topic, and energy planners around the world are looking to Denmark for inspiration.
Local heat resources
In the future our homes are heated from a variety of sources. It can be excess heat from data centers, Power-to-X, or Carbon Capture plants. Or the heat source can be local sewage or waste from agriculture.
We help cities and district heating providers plan for the future of district heating.
MODELLING We gather information about the current heating system and the local resources when we model a district heating area. Based on that we create a local optimization module within one of our national models.
SCENARIO ANALYSIS In a collaboration between the client and the modelling team we identify a series of potential paths to a sustainable district heating system.
A COLLECTION OF PATHS The investment paths are gathered in a final report, which gives the client an overview of the different options.
What is needed for the Danish agriculture and forestry to become climate neutral? How should the limited Danish area be distributed in the future? How can we utilize the available Danish biomass resources?
These are some of the tricky questions the Danish bio-resource model (DK-BioRes) can help answering.
If you want to create your own scenarios, the model is available open source in our GitHub repository.
Energy Modelling Lab has developed the flow-based model DK-BioRes containing all Danish biomass resources from both agriculture, forestry and aquaculture.
The model serves as a foundation for political decisions towards reaching the national climate goals.
The model can be connected to the full national energy model, DK-TIMES.
TRAINING THE USERS
A crucial part of the project is training the analysts from the Danish Energy Agency in using the DK-BioRes model.
Through the series of courses Energy Modelling Lab has been training both regular and super users.
The project Nordic Clean Energy Scenarios aims at identifying technological solutions to a fully carbon neutral Nordic region. It further aims at developing energy scenarios for the Nordic energy sector enabling the Nordic commitment to reach carbon neutrality.
Collaborating on finding the right solutions
NCES2020 brings together nine teams from four Nordic countries, with complementing modelling and analytical skills. Combined with use of open access energy system models and data, this strengthens Nordic cooperation and expertise in energy modelling.