Frontpage projects Archives - Energy System Modelling & Planning

7th April 20257th April 2025

Danish Investment Options for Hydrogen

Photoshopped illustration of Danish investments options for Hydrogen

The overall goal of the PtX Infrastructure project is to evaluate Danish investment options for hydrogen and CO₂ infrastructure. The results should support Danish green fuel production in the context of an integrated, sector-coupled European energy system.

The project is a research project carried out by eight partners. EML contributes to the project with our advanced energy systems modelling expertise. We will use the energy systems model TIMES-NEU to generate scenarios for detailed analyses.

The expected results are forecasts and estimates of the following:

Hydrogen demand evolution in each region, including hydrogen as a feedstock for e-fuels production (e-methanol, ammonia).
Size of Danish H2 export market and potential countries to export to.
Electricity demand in Denmark, Sweden, Norway, Germany, and Poland at sector level.
CO2 trajectory for Power and Heat sector.
CO2 use and storage.

Identified research gaps

Currently, the number of analyses of feasible CO₂ infrastructures and H₂ and CO₂ storage is limited. Furthermore, the partners in the project are addressing another three research gaps that have been identified:

Silo thinking when optimising energy infrastructures.
National foci when developing PtX plans.
Poor representation of uncertainty and robustness in investment planning.

To bridge the gaps, the project partners will apply and further develop three state-of-the-art energy system models to encompass a holistic energy system perspective. The three models in question are Balmorel, PyPSA-Eur-Sec, and TIMES.

The partners design common scenarios and explore the results to understand differences, enhancing the robustness of the results. An essential part of the project is carrying out a detailed uncertainty analysis.

Advantages of the TIMES-NEU model

When using the TIMES-NEU model, the Danish energy system is analysed within the framework of the European energy system.

The TIMES-NEU model represents the entire energy system of Norway (NO), Denmark (DK), Sweden (SE), Germany (DE), and Poland (PL), covering all sectors to assess future hydrogen and electrofuel demand. Furthermore, it has data on the Netherlands, Belgium, and the UK.

It includes key hydrogen and CO₂ infrastructure and detailed sectoral modelling for aviation and shipping, incorporating technology developments for electro fuel adoption. Additionally, the model provides an in-depth analysis of iron, steel, and other industries, evaluating the competition between hydrogen and electrification pathways.

With 56 time slices per year, the model captures seasonal and intra-annual variations, while global market trade with 40 energy carriers ensures a comprehensive representation of international energy flows.

EML developed the TIMES-NEU model in 2022 using the TIMES energy systems modelling framework. TIMES is internationally recognized and developed under the Energy Technology Systems Analysis Program (ETSAP).

MissionGreenFuels partnership

The PtX Infrastructure project is implemented under the aegis of the MissionGreenFuels partnership, which is one of the four Innomissions launched by the Danish Innovation Fund. Innomission is funded by a 700 million DKK grant from the Danish government and funds from the NextGenerationEU program. The second phase of the project started in 2025.

The Advisory Board has representatives from the Danish TSO Energinet, the Danish Energy Agency, Mærsk, Technische Universität Berlin, and VTT.

Duration: 2025-2026

Client: Danish Innovation Fund

Reference: Professor Marie Münster, Danish Technical University

Collaborators: DTU MAN, DTU Compute, Aalborg University PLAN, EA Energy Analysis, Evida, GSD, PlanEnergi

EML team: Kenneth Karlsson and Andrea Marin Radoszynski

Model: TIMES-NEU

10th March 202521st March 2025

Recommendations for Investments in New Technologies

Photo of Arlington illustrating the TIMES-Arlington model that Brightcore can use to make recommendations for investments in new technologies.

The American company Brightcore Energy has assigned EML to build a tailored energy systems model, the TIMES-Arlington model. The company can use the model to make recommendations for investments in new technologies regarding renewing and optimizing energy supply.

The model represents a school’s heating and cooling systems and an adjacent neighborhood in Arlington, Massachusetts. At the outset, the systems are supplied by only natural gas (main source) and some electricity. The buildings have individual AC units.

EML has considered local resources such as river and sewage water. In numerous scenarios, we have tested production, storage, and grid capacities, and space heat, space cooling, and hot water production in different combinations of technologies.

Our initial analysis has shown that a mix of geothermal and air-source pumps is the most feasible and lowest-cost solution for a future system.

Total discounted costs of systems

The analysis included the costs of grid expansion and the building of new pipes. Furthermore, we tested the optimal percentage of residential houses to be connected to the different kinds of pumps. We could demonstrate significant differences in total discounted costs of systems between tested mixes.

In addition to total system costs for different technology mixes, our analysis included CapEx breakdowns and estimates of primary energy supply and final energy consumption.

The TIMES-Arlington model is set to optimize the system for the milestone years 2024, 2030, 2040, and 2050.

Load profiles and accurate system sizing

To ensure accurate system sizing according to the load demands and to reflect peaks, we selected eight representative weeks based on load profiles. Each selected week captures the load behavior of a specific season. The resulting time series distinguishes between weekdays and non-weekdays and represents 24 hours per day. This method also minimizes computational time.

MODELLING

The TIMES-Arlington model is developed using the TIMES energy systems modelling framework. It represents a school’s heating and cooling systems and an adjacent neighbourhood in Arlington, US.

SCENARIOS

We have tested production, storage, and grid capacities, and space heat, space cooling, and hot water production in scenarios with different combinations of technologies.

REPORT

In addition to total discounted system costs of different technology mixes, our analysis included CapEx breakdowns and estimates of primary energy supply and final energy consumption.

Client: Brightcore Energy

EML-team: Ida Græsted Jensen, Andrea Marian Radozynski, and Till ben Brahim

Duration: October 2024 – January 2025

4th March 202519th March 2025

Developing District Heating in Trollhättan

Trollhättan Energi is developing district heating in Trollhättan and has assigned EML to develop a customized energy systems model, the TIMES-TE model. The model is used as a tool to analyze existing district heating operations, explore options for new technologies, and identify cost-optimal solutions.

Consequently, EML has generated about 30 scenarios, allowing for an in-depth analysis and testing of multiple options. The model data spans the period 2027- 2040.

Among the results of the scenario analysis were recommendations for phasing out some existing plants over time, investing in heat pump technology, and not reinvesting in certain plants.

Furthermore, we estimated the payback time for recommended investments in heat pump technology.

Identifying waste heat potential

Trollhättan Energi provides heating to 18,000 homes and 300 companies in the Swedish city of Trollhättan. The Company has set a strategic aim that its energy production should be fossil-free by 2030.

The TIMES-TE model has a representation of available energy resources, including not yet exploited sources such as wastewater. Waste heat potential in Trollhättan was identified using registers of all municipal activities and mapping through GIS modelling.

The TIMES-TE model can be regularly updated and used as a tool for continuous strategic energy planning, dovetailing system developments, and financial planning.

Icon of Energy System Model used for developing district heating in Trollhättan

MODELLING

EML used the TIMES energy systems modelling framework to develop a customized model of the district heating network in Trollhättan, the TIMES-TE model.

Icon of scenario analysis made for developing district heating in Trollhättan

SCENARIOS

An analysis of about 30 scenarios testing different assumptions, technology options, and targets was accomplished.

Icon of report making recommendations for developing district heating in Trollhättan

REPORTING

We produced a comprehensive report of the results that supported the decision-making of the management of Trollhättan Energi.

Client: Trollhättan Energi

Partner and project lead: Swedish Environmental Research Institute (IVL) / Kristina Lygnerud

EML Team: Kenneth Karlsson, Till ben Brahim, Andrea Radoszynski

Duration: April – October 2024

26th February 202526th February 2025

Innovating Energy Planning in Ukraine

Vinnytsia municipality has engaged in a project to develop a comprehensive district heating investment roadmap, innovating energy planning in Ukraine. As part of the project, the Energy Modelling Lab is building the TIMES-Vinnytsia energy systems model.

The model enables energy planners to identify the most cost-effective and sustainable solutions to modernize the district heating system. It covers the period 2025-2050. Subsequently, Vinnytsia’s energy planners can adopt a long-term strategic approach, allowing for informed decisions on priority investment projects.

Building the TIMES-Vinnytsia model entails mapping available local energy resources such as river water, wind, waste energy, geothermal, and solar. Furthermore, we will assess the feasibility of using these sources in the local district heating system. Likewise, we will analyze current assets to determine which ones should be replaced or retrofitted and identify opportunities for system expansion.

20-30 scenarios for modernizing the district heating system

We expect to develop and analyze 20-30 scenarios for modernizing the district heating system. The scenarios will show the impact of factors such as energy taxation policies, choice of energy resources, alignment with EU legislation (e.g., EU Taxonomy), the resilience of the energy system (technology combinations, storage solutions), the marginal cost of production, potential grid expansion, and energy efficiency investments in buildings.

The analysis of the scenarios will result in a roadmap for 2025-2050 outlining recommended investments, timing, and costs.

The TIMES-Vinnytsia will have a representation of the heat supply balance including storages and demands and showing centralized and individual options.

Vinnytsia first in Ukraine to announce the Green Deal

Vinnytsia has 370.000 inhabitants. It is located on the banks of the Southern Bug and is a prominent industrial city. Vinnytsia City Territorial Community was the first in Ukraine to announce the Green Deal following the example of the European Green Deal.

The district heating systems in Ukraine supply about 40 pct. of the residents during the heating season. The National Renewable Energy Action Plan (NREAP) has set ambitious targets to increase the share of renewable energy in heating and cooling from 20.8% to 32.5% by 2030.

MODELLING

Building the TIMES-Vinnytsia model. We use the TIMES energy systems modelling framework. It was developed as a methodology for energy scenarios to conduct in-depth energy and environmental analyses by ETSAP, a technology collaboration program under the IEA.

SCENARIO ANALYSIS

Generating and analyzing 20-30 scenarios of modernizing the Vinnytsia district heating system considering the impact on demand and production by factors such as energy taxation policies, choice of energy resources, alignment with EU taxonomy, and energy system resilience.

ROADMAP

Developing a Roadmap 2025-2050 detailing recommended priority investment projects, timeline, and costs. The Roadmap will support the energy planners of Vinnytsia Municipality in making informed choices and enable long-term strategic planning.

Client: IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute

Donor: Nordic Environment Finance Corporation (NEFCO)

EML Team: Ida Græsted Jensen, Till ben Brahim, and Andrea Radoszynski

Duration: January 2025 – August 2025

23rd October 202421st March 2025

Modelling Gothenburg City energy system

Cities account for about 66 pct. of the total final energy consumption and more than 75pct. of global CO2 emissions. Subsequently, the green transition of city energy systems is key to reaching climate targets. We are supervising a PhD project focusing on city energy planning and modelling the Gothenburg city energy system as a case study.

The PhD is entitled “Policy-driven long-term development of city energy systems” and written by Kushagra Gupta at Chalmers University of Technology, Sweden.

The objectives of the research

To investigate how the city’s energy plans drive the long-term development of the city’s energy system.

To explore how the city energy plans coordinate with the national climate targets from a long-term perspective.

To identify optimal pathways for allocating resources to competing sectors during the transition.

Methodology

We have built a tailored energy systems model, the TIMES-NE city model. The model allows us to investigate the impact of the city energy plan on the long-term energy systems development.

The model represents a Northern European city setting. It’s based on the TIMES modeling framework developed and maintained by the IEA-ETSAP (International Energy Agency – The Energy Technology Systems Analysis Program).

The model has a representation of developments in the supply and demand side of the heating, electricity, and transportation sectors. The time horizon is from 2018-2050. The temporal resolution of the model is 12*24 to incorporate seasonal and hourly variations. The spatial boundary covers the area within the control of the municipal authorities. The city is further divided into multiple segments based on demographics.

Novelty of the study

The novelty of the study lies in adopting an integrated model approach. This approach allows for exploring intra- and inter-sectorial linkages.

Furthermore, this study explores the supply and demand side whereas most studies focus on either the supply or demand side. Subsequently, it enables us to account for the competition of resources among sectors.

Another important characteristic of this modelling study is the inclusion of customer perspective in investment decisions.

Scenarios

We are developing four scenarios for our analysis:

1) The reference scenario (REF) extends the base year model over the modelling time horizon. Already adopted national policy instruments such as energy and carbon tax, reduction obligations for the transport sector are included in the reference scenario. No additional policy measures or system improvements take place. Historical trends are projected into the future to evaluate the demands and shape a reference energy system.

2) The City Energy Plan scenario (CEP), in which the main goals identified under the Gothenburg Energy Plan 2021-2030 are applied and tested.

3) Integrated National Energy and Climate Plan (INEP), in which the national climate targets for Sweden are translated into targets for the city.

4) EU-Effort Sharing regulation (EU-ESR), Similar to INEP, in this scenario, Sweden’s commitment to EU-ESR is translated into climate targets for the city.

Gothenburg Energy Plan

The purpose of the energy plan is to promote the implementation of measures that lead to the city of Gothenburg reaching the environmental goal for the climate in the City’s Environmental and Climate Program 2021-2030.

The environmental and climate program 2021-2030 is the starting point for the energy plan. The plan describes how the City of Gothenburg will work to achieve the energy-related goals in the program.

Within the Gothenburg energy plan, the city has interim goals for the climate:

· The city of Gothenburg reduces energy use in homes and premises.

· The City of Gothenburg only produces energy from renewable sources.

· The city of Gothenburg reduces the climate impact of transport.

· The City of Gothenburg reduces the climate impact of purchasing.

The plans cover the energy produced or used within the municipal geographic area, the energy produced by the city of Gothenburg, and the energy used by municipality employees when traveling outside.

Institution: Chalmers University of Technology, Sweden

University Supervisor: Professor Erik Ahlgren, Department of Space, Earth and Environment

PhD student: Kushagra Gupta EML-team: Kenneth Karlsson

Duration: 2021-2026

Model: TIMES-NE city model

25th September 202426th September 2024

Improving the competitiveness of district energy

We have made a quantitative impact assessment related to load distribution for Varmelast. The impact assessment is part of the project Load Distribution based on Contract Prices. The aim of the project is improving the competitiveness of district heating.

Varmelast handles load dispatching of heat production in the greater Copenhagen area. Varmelast is organized as a cooperation between the three largest municipally owned heating companies in the Copenhagen metropolitan area: CTR, VEKS, and HOFOR.

Varmelast has published the EML report on Varmelast.dk.

One fundamental way of improving the competitiveness of district heating is to reform the load distribution system to ensure the lowest possible heating prices. Our analysis focused on the pricing of load distribution, comparing the advantages of different pricing systems.

Comparing load distribution systems

We based the assessment on the model TIMES-Varmelast. TIMES-Varmelast is an optimization model we built and tailored based on the internationally recognized TIMES modelling framework.

In the model, a load distribution system based on the contract prices is tested and compared with the existing system load distribution system based on minimizing the total costs of running the plants (e.g., fuel costs and revenue from the sale of electricity which are not part of the heating contract).

The analysis examines the total variable heat payment in 2030 under the two load distribution systems. The purpose was to contribute to understanding how changes in load distribution, and design of future contracts can affect the future heat price and production. Likewise, we also wished to gain insights into how electricity price assumptions and fuel price assumptions can affect future heat prices and production.

The TIMES-Varmelast model

The TIMES-Varmelast model is solved on an hourly level (8760 hours). We equipped it with a detailed representation of the greater Copenhagen district heating area. The model features 98 regions representing relevant district heating supply, transmission, and demand areas.

TIMES-Varmelast was developed from scratch within a few weeks by EML. The successful result has demonstrated the strength and flexibility of the TIMES modelling framework. Furthermore, we confirmed our ability to apply the TIMES framework quickly to any complex energy system case.

Key takeaways

Adopting the format of price-based contracts for load distribution results in substantial reductions in the costs and lower prices of district heating compared to cost-based load distribution.
Operating the format of price-based contracts for load distribution results in using the cheapest production plant at any given time.
Using the format of price-based contracts for load distribution results in considerable change in the district heating production. The impact includes decreased production from thermal plants while production from heat pumps and electric boilers increases.
The format of price-based contracts for load distribution is more robust to changes in electricity prices.

Modelling

We used the TIMES modelling framework to build the TIMES-Varmelast model for load distribution with different pricing systems, hourly time resolution, and detailed representation of the Greater Copenhagen district heating area.

Scenarios

We developed scenarios comparing price-based contracts for load distribution to the existing load distribution system (based on total costs) and ran sensitivity analyses.

Reporting

We produced the report “Contract Price-based Load Distribution. Analysis of the economic implication of load distribution based on contract prices.”

Client: Varmelast

Reference: Peter Folke

EML Team: Ida Græsted Jensen, Kristoffer Steen Andersen, Julius Lindberg Steensberg

Duration: June-September, 2024

14th August 202414th August 2024

Denmark’s Climate Targets 2050

We have supported the Report, Denmark’s Climate Targets 2050, published by the Danish Climate Council in August 2024. The Report contains an analysis of four scenarios for the future of Denmark. The scenarios have been generated using the DK-BioRes model as one of the tools.

Energy Modelling Lab developed the DK-BioRes model in 2021 as a project under the Danish Energy Agency. We have updated the model and integrated new technologies. We have also built up the capacity of the experts of the Danish Climate Council to use the model.

Climate target 110 percent reduction

The analysis of the Report shows that there are different pathways towards reaching a climate target of 110 percent reduction of climate gasses. The analysis designates two strategies for implementing the transition. The designated strategies are intended to illustrate the possibilities and dilemmas of the transition. Subsequently, the analysis highlights the magnitude of the task of the green transition.

The DK-BioRes model enables scenario analyses, which show the impacts of various options for the production of biological resources and mitigation measures of greenhouse gas emissions from land, forests, and agriculture in Denmark. The model calculates in physical units, e.g. tonnes and PJ, while financial conditions are not included. The DK-BioRes model has a representation of Denmark’s entire area divided into agriculture, forest, wetlands, built-up areas, etc.

The report: Danmarks Klimamål 2050

Documentation Report 1 about scenarios, models, and assumptions

Documentation Report 2 about the DK-BioRes model

EML Project Supporting the Danish Climate Council

EML-team: Ida Græsted Jensen and Kenneth Karlsson

Danmarks klimamål i 2050 Download

26th June 202413th August 2024

Planning the optimal energy island

We have developed an innovative model enabling the planning of an optimal energy island. The model makes it possible to generate scenarios and explore how to plan for the maximum economic returns for investors and developers. By analyzing various scenarios we can assess how differing conditions might affect the island’s operations, capacity, investment, and profitability.

Correspondingly, the model can generate scenarios showing the optimal scale of production of various e-fuels such as hydrogen, ammonia, methanol, and kerosene. Likewise, we can probe the most cost-efficient solutions for the management of electricity transmission.

The model is the result of a master’s thesis that we have supervised. It’s developed using the TIMES modelling framework and diverges from the prevalent demand-driven approach by adopting a price-driven strategy.

North Sea Energy Island

As a case study, the master’s thesis explores the strategic development and optimization of a North Sea Energy Island. The Danish government is planning for several energy islands in the North Sea. The Energy Island project directly addresses the European Union’s imperative to boost energy security and diminish its dependence on
fossil fuel imports amidst evolving geopolitical and energy market dynamics.

The model employs an hourly resolution. It thus provides a detailed understanding of the island’s configuration and operations, enhancing the reliability of the results.

The developed model tool has proven reliable although some simplifications concerning the electricity market and transport operations were necessary. It can be integrated with other demand-driven studies to determine optimal operational strategies and future projections.

Results

The findings indicate that Germany and Denmark are the most viable markets for exporting the island’s electricity. However, producing hydrogen for export to the Netherlands and Belgium appears to be the most lucrative option, given the high industrial demand and pricing in these regions.

The study also notes that producing other e-fuels on the island would be economically feasible only under specific conditions with sufficiently high prices. These results suggest that the island’s most effective role may be as a hydrogen hub.

Furthermore, using an hourly resolution has proven instrumental in understanding storage operations on the island and achieving more dependable outcomes.

Modelling

We have developed a model of a North Sea energy island using the TIMES modelling framework.

Scenarios

We have generated various scenarios and assessed how differing conditions might affect the island’s operations, capacity, investment, and profitability.

Publication

The research is part of a master’s thesis at Danish Technical University.

Institution: Danish Technical University, supervisor Kenneth Karlsson

MSc student: Francisco González Beltrán

EML-team: Kenneth Karlsson, and Till ben Brahim

Duration: 2023-2024

10th June 202413th August 2024

Phasing out the Use of Biomass

The Danish District Heating Association has assigned us to analyze the impact of phasing out the use of biomass in district heating. We have explored three scenarios of phasing out, all by 2035. In the first scenario, a 50 percent reduction is implemented. In the second scenario, a 75 percent reduction is implemented. In the third scenario, the phasing out of the use of biomass is 100 percent complete.

The use of biomass is set to be replaced by heat pumps and electric boilers, fueled by electricity from solar and wind parks. Consequently, the electricity demand is set to increase. Simultaneously, the electricity production from the thermal plants is set to decrease. Therefore, the capacity of onshore wind and solar parks needs to increase correspondingly.

Our analysis focuses on answering three questions:

1. How big is the need for new capacities of heat pumps, electric boilers, and onshore wind and solar parks?

2. How big are the changes in yearly costs and what are the investment and sunk costs for the phase-out?

3. What will the phasing out mean for land use?

Cost-benefit

A key factor is the replacement of costly biomass with sun and wind. Also, the life expectancy of the technologies has an important impact on the results. Solar and wind parks have a life expectancy of 35 years while thermal plants have 25 years. Boilers and heat pumps have a life expectancy of 20 years.

Meanwhile, the electricity production of solar and wind parks is less efficient. Consequently, the capacity needs to be higher than the capacity of thermal plants. Yet, the operational costs of solar and wind parks, boilers, and heat pumps are significantly lower than those of thermal plants.

The land use differs considerably. Phasing out the use of biomass could lead to a reduction of more than 90 pct. Land prices thus have a considerable impact on the bottom line.

Client: Danish District Heating

EML Team: Ida Græsted Jensen, Julius Lindberg Steensberg

Duration: April-June, 2024

Budget: DKK 126,000

10th June 202413th August 2024

Modelling the Water-energy-food Nexus

photo of a sunflower field by small river

We are hosting and supervising PhD student Daniele Mosso for one year. Daniele Mosso is doing his PhD at Politecnico di Torino. He is focusing on developing tools to modelling the water-energy-food nexus. The objective is to answer the following question: To what extent can energy be produced without significantly harming natural resources and related sectors?

Daniele Mosso spent the initial period of his PhD examining the major factors affecting the sustainability of energy systems. He concluded that land use, or the consumption of natural resources, is a major issue.

Limitations of existing models

Meanwhile, the existing Energy System Optimization Models (ESOMs) have limitations concerning sustainability and environmental aspects. The limitations can be overcome in several ways. Based on his initial research, Daniele Mosso opted to develop a tool to represent the sectors of agriculture, forestry, and land use (AFOLU) in an ESOM. The tool should make it possible to account for land and water consumption and related emissions.

Subsequently, the research of Daniele Mosso is in line with a new research project Energy Modelling Lab launched recently. The aim is to develop a prototype module representing the AFOLU sector for the TIMES modelling framework. The TIMES model is an energy system optimization model.

Exploring a soft-linking methodology

Furthermore, Daniele Mosso plans to devote the last part of his PhD to exploring a soft-linking methodology. One possibility is direct coupling with an integrated assessment model (IAM) representing natural resources.

At Politecnico di Torino, Daniele Mosso is a member of the MAHTEP Group (Modeling of Advanced Heat Transfer and Energy Problems). It’s a research team established at the end of 2019.

Modelling

We will develop a prototype module representing the AFOLU sector for the TIMES modelling framework.

Scenarios

We will test scenarios of the impacts of energy consumption of the AFOLU sector.

Publication

The research is part of a PhD to be finalized in 2026.

Institution: Politecnico di Torino, Professor Laura Savoldi

EML-team: Daniele Mosso, Ida Græsted Jensen

Duration: 2024-2025