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Heat pumps are the future of district heating

In the near future wind and solar will take over the electricity market. As a result the thermal power and district heating plants will close down faster than the Danish Energy Agency projects.

In this analysis for Dansk Fjernvarme, Energy Modelling Lab has dived into the details of the future of district heating in Denmark, to explore where the heat will come from, and if our energy system will get too vulnerable without the thermal powerplants.

Key findings

In the future district heating will primarily come from large scale heat pumps and surplus heat from PtX-plants and data centers.

The thermal power and heat plants are being phased out faster than the Danish Energy Agency projects.

An energy system with a low diversity comes with an increased risk of failure.

Read the full analysis here (in Danish):

Analysis: Development in thermal power and heat capacity Download
Building DK-BioRes

MODELLING
Energy Modelling Lab has updated the Danish TIMES model (TIMES-DK) to include 23 individual district heating areas and four aggregated areas.

SCENARIO ANALYSIS
Energy Modelling Lab has investigated the consequences of an upper limit in biomass used for power and heat and an upper limit in the number of PtX-plants.

REPORT
All results and scenarios are collected in the report above.

Year: 2022

EML Team: Mikkel Bosack Simonsen, Ida Græsted Jensen, Alexandra O’Sullivan Freltoft

Client: Dansk Fjernvarme

Model: TIMES-DK

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A mosaic of district heating

The climate agenda, new technologies, and geopolitical uncertainties all affect the energy system. District heating is a hot topic, and energy planners around the world are looking to Denmark for inspiration.

Local heat resources

In the future our homes are heated from a variety of sources. It can be excess heat from data centers, Power-to-X, or Carbon Capture plants. Or the heat source can be local sewage or waste from agriculture.

We help cities and district heating providers plan for the future of district heating.

Building DK-BioRes

MODELLING
We gather information about the current heating system and the local resources when we model a district heating area. Based on that we create a local optimization module within one of our national models.

SCENARIO ANALYSIS
In a collaboration between the client and the modelling team we identify a series of potential paths to a sustainable district heating system.

A COLLECTION OF PATHS
The investment paths are gathered in a final report, which gives the client an overview of the different options.

Energy Modelling Lab Contact: Kenneth Karlsson

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Energy strategy in Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan means the land of fire and energy resources as natural gas simply sets the country on fire. As the country moves forward new investments in energy and infrastructure is needed.

To ensure an informed decision process Energy Modelling Lab has supported the Government of Azerbaijan in developing and implementing a long-term energy strategy.

Building DK-BioRes

MODELLING
Energy Modelling Lab has developed and implemented a full energy model (TIMES-AZ) for Azerbaijan, connecting all relevant sectors from energy and heating to transport and industry.

SCENARIO ANALYSIS
The model is used for long term energy system and climate policy planning.

TRAINING
Energy Modelling Lab is supporting the Government of Azerbaijan with training in the use of the energy system model.

Duration: November 2020 – November 2021

Team: Kenneth Karlsson, Mikkel Bosack Simonsen, Till ben Brahim & Andrea Marin Radoszynski

Client: Government of Azerbaijan

Model: TIMES-AZ

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Danish Bioresource Model

What is needed for the Danish agriculture and forestry to become climate neutral?
How should the limited Danish area be distributed in the future?
How can we utilize the available Danish biomass resources?

These are some of the tricky questions the Danish bio-resource model (DK-BioRes) can help answering.

If you want to create your own scenarios, the model is available open source in our GitHub repository.

Building DK-BioRes

MODELLING

Energy Modelling Lab has developed the flow-based model DK-BioRes containing all Danish biomass resources from both agriculture, forestry and aquaculture.

The model serves as a foundation for political decisions towards reaching the national climate goals.

The model can be connected to the full national energy model, DK-TIMES.

TRAINING THE USERS

A crucial part of the project is training the analysts from the Danish Energy Agency in using the DK-BioRes model.

Through the series of courses Energy Modelling Lab has been training both regular and super users.

Duration: October 2020 – June 2021

EML team: Ida Græsted Jensen & Alexandra O’Sullivan Freltoft

Client: Danish Energy Agency

Model: The Danish Bioressource Model (DK-BioRes)

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Nordic Clean Energy Scenarios

The project Nordic Clean Energy Scenarios aims at identifying technological solutions to a fully carbon neutral Nordic region. It further aims at developing energy scenarios for the Nordic energy sector enabling the Nordic commitment to reach carbon neutrality.

Collaborating on finding the right solutions

NCES2020 brings together nine teams from four Nordic countries, with complementing modelling and analytical skills. Combined with use of open access energy system models and data, this strengthens Nordic cooperation and expertise in energy modelling.

The path to neutrality

If you are curious to know more about the results, you can find the five solution tracks here. You can also listen to the podcast, read the full report, or dive straight into the results data.

Building DK-BioRes

MODELLING
Energy Modelling Lab has developed an open source energy model for the Nordic region (ON-TIMES).

The model covers Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Finland and Iceland.

SCENARIO ANALYSIS
The model is used to identify paths to a fully carbon neutral Nordic region.

Find the scenario results here.

REPORT
The results are collected in the Nordic Clean Energy Scenarios report.

Duration: March 2020 – April 2021.

Project: Nordic Clean Energy Scenarios

Energy Modelling Lab Contact: Kenneth Karlsson

Client: Energiforsk

Model: Open Nordic TIMES model (ON-TIMES)