Category: Frontpage projects

Kuwait is becoming one of the hottest countries on the planet and faces profound social and ecological challenges from continued global warming and the transition from fossil fuels. The government has pledged to reach net-zero emissions in the oil and gas sector by 2050 and by 2060 for the whole country.

At present, oil accounts for 90 % of the national revenue and more than half of GDP, and renewable energy for less than 1 % of demand. Kuwait thus needs clever and comprehensive solutions. With abundant wind and solar resources, the potential is at hand.

Energy Modelling Lab supports steps to reach net-zero emissions in Kuwait by 2060. We are developing an energy systems model, the TIMES-KUWIAT, that allows us to identify the least-cost and most feasible green energy systems. Based on these results we can designate pathways to integrate the new solutions across five key sectors: Energy, Industry, Agriculture, land use, and Waste.

MODELLING

Energy Modelling Lab develops a database for energy and GHG emissions, builds consensus on ambitions, and shortlists decarbonization options.

We develop the TIMES-KUWAIT model featuring different scenarios including rapid expansion of the renewable fuel market and reduced exports.

SCENARIO ANALYSIS

Analyzing the different scenarios allows for informed decision-making on the optimal solutions integrated across sectors.

Socioeconomic and environmental impacts and co-benefits such as improved health are identified and considered.

RESULTS

Results are presented in a website format with open access and all key results are shared in Excel sheets.

Users can move between scenarios and study results like emissions and energy consumption by sector and costs.

Duration: August 2022 – June 2024

External experts from EML : Mikkel Bosack Simonsen and Ida Græsted Jensen

Client: UNEP

Total budget: USD 64.920

Reference: Sarah Carmen Fiedler, associate expert, UNEP

Collaborators: SDA Sustainable Development Advisors

Model: TIMES

Jordan is considered to be among the world’s most vulnerable to drought as a result of climate change. Major challenges are aridity, water scarcity, heavy reliance on fossil energy imports and rapid growth in population and urbanization.

The government is now addressing the need for a transition to a greener and more resilient economy. One important step is developing a National Long-Term Low Emission Strategy and Options Report 2050.

Energy Modelling Lab is contributing to developing a low-emission strategy in Jordan. We are creating a central modelling framework representing eight key sectors and their interconnections. By embedding baseline scenarios, we can estimate the impact of different options for decarbonization. We then create a shortlist of the least cost and most feasible options and are able to designate the optimal pathways.

MODELLING
Energy Modelling Lab shortlists decarbonization options, identifies cross-sector synergies and develops an integrated model.

The model includes a full investment catalogue for the entire energy sector and shows the economically optimal pathways through the jungle of technological solutions.

SCENARIO ANALYSIS
Through a series of scenarios, we can investigate the consequences of different climate scenarios and consider prioritized mitigation actions.

We also identify and consider socioeconomic and environmental impacts and co-benefits such as improved health and energy savings.

REPORT
The final report proposes optimal decarbonization pathways and provides policy recommendations that are validated through workshops with key stakeholders.

The Jordanian Government will have a solid basis for a continuously informed decision process as we will build up local partner capacity to use and update the model.

Duration: August 2022 – June 2024

EML Team: Kenneth Karlsson, Mikkel Bosack Simonsen, Ida Græsted Jensen 

Client: The World Bank

Budget: DKK 679,250

Reference: Karsten Holm, Danish Energy Management

Collaborators: Danish Energy Management (DEM) and the Water, Energy and Environment

Center (WEEC) of the University of Jordan

Model: TIMES-JO