Ending the use of fossil fuels is necessary to complete the green transition in shipping. That is the main finding of our study “Hydrogen fuel cells in shipping: A policy case study of Denmark, Norway, and Sweden”, carried out with colleagues in Iceland and published in the journal Marine Policy in May 2024.
The study set out to identify the policy instruments needed to accelerate the uptake of hydrogen fuel cells in the Danish, Norwegian and Swedish shipping industries. Hydrogen fuel cells are a promising way to cut emissions from shipping, but their adoption is held back by high costs, a lack of regulation and a lack of infrastructure, which is why policies that spur investment are needed.
Together with our fellow researchers, we tested three policy packages of different ambition, low, medium and high, formulated from discussions in workshops with key stakeholders from Nordic shipping. Taxes on CO2 emissions and fossil fuels can help drive the transition, but a complete shift away from fossil fuels needs an outright ban. The workshops also surfaced a “chicken and egg” paradox that earlier studies had missed: without demand for green hydrogen there is no supply, and without supply there is no demand, which is why a coordinated regional approach and cross-sector collaboration are needed to break the deadlock.
We used TIMES-NEU, an economic model generator for energy systems that EML has developed, to evaluate the three policy packages.
The scenarios estimate total fuel consumption, CO2 emissions by fuel, tax revenue from fossil fuels, and fuel consumption in the ferry segment specifically, alongside the CAPEX and OPEX of each policy package and of a mandate for ferries to use hydrogen.
The main finding is that policies are needed to spur investment in hydrogen fuel cells, but that completing the green transition of shipping ultimately requires a ban on fossil fuels.
Client: Not applicable (research study, part of the HOPE Project)
Reference: Published in Marine Policy, May 2024
Collaborators: University of Iceland; funded by Nordic Energy Research, the Norwegian Research Council, the Swedish Transport Administration, the Icelandic Centre for Research, Business Finland, the Danish Energy Agency, Stena Rederi AB and PowerCell Sweden AB
EML team: Andrea Marin Radoszynski, Kenneth Karlsson
Budget: Not stated on the existing page
Duration: Not stated on the existing page
Model: TIMES-NEU