Low Carbon Solutions for Azerbaijan

Skyline of Baku from seaside

We are contributing to a project designating low-carbon solutions for Azerbaijan. The project result should be a Roadmap recommending relevant policies and technologies. The full title is “Low-Carbon Solutions in the Electric Power Sector of Azerbaijan Technical Assistance Project”.

Azerbaijan relies heavily on oil and gas, which has brought significant economic growth over the years. Oil, gas, and related petroleum products accounted for 91 percent of Azerbaijan’s total exports in 2022 and almost 48 percent of its GDP.  Likewise, in 2021, natural gas dominated the electricity generation mix (94 percent). It was followed by hydropower (4.6 percent), waste and biomass incineration (0.7 percent), and solar and wind (0.5 percent).

Meanwhile, there is a vast potential for solar and wind power that investors have already begun to develop.

TIMES-Azerbaijan

Energy Modelling Lab carries out part of the energy systems modelling work for the project. Subsequently, we are updating and tailoring the TIMES-Azerbaijan model we have developed for the EU Commission in 2021. We are using the model to create three scenarios:

  • A Business As Usual (BAU) scenario reflects current and planned policies concerning low carbon penetration.
  • One scenario assumes high economic growth and targets carbon neutrality by 2050.
  • One scenario assumes low economic growth and targeting carbon neutrality by 2050.

Stakeholder engagement

We have also been assigned to design and take charge of stakeholder engagement, consultation, and communications. The aim is to foster an understanding of the modelling approaches. The key stakeholders should reach and maintain agreement on scenario assumptions, and we should obtain the necessary feedback. The overall objective is to ensure the full capacity of ownership of the key stakeholders. Additionally, the Roadmap should be credible, robust, and functional.


Energy Modelling Lab has been subcontracted for the project by Tetra Tech. The project is implemented within the Memorandum of Understanding between the Ministry of Energy of Azerbaijan and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development EBRD on technical support related to the development of the electric power sector of the Republic of Azerbaijan.

Icon of modelling

Modelling

We are updating and tailoring the TIMES-Azerbaijan model using the TIMES energy systems modelling framework.

Icon of scenario analysis

Scenarios

We are creating a business as usual (BAU) scenario and two scenarios targeting net zero for the energy sector by 2050.

course on energy modelling

Stakeholder engagement

We are taking charge of designing the consultation and communications to ensure the full ownership of key stakeholders.

Client: Tetra Tech

Donor: European Bank of Reconstruction and Development (EBRD)

EML Team: Kenneth Karlsson, Till ben Brahim, Andrea Radoszynski, Pernille Bramming

Duration: 2024-25

Budget: EURO 52,400

Developing scenarios for CONCITO

We have contributed to developing scenarios for CONCITO, a major Danish green think tank. CONCITO has analyzed the scenarios in the report The Importance of Agriculture for Future Land Use (Jordbrugets Betydning for Fremtidens Arealanvendelse), published in May 2024.

The scenarios represent different visions of land use in Denmark. The scenarios consider major concerns regarding sustainability, climate neutrality, and natural resources. 

Consequently, the scenarios explore the potential of a substantial increase in plant-based food production and a corresponding livestock decrease. The impact of such measures on the economy and the well-being of the Danish population has also been explored. 

The set target for the scenarios is to keep contributing to global food production on the present scale. To keep up with global population growth, Denmark should thus increase food production by 50 pct. over the coming decades. The set target amounts to producing about 22 trillion kilojoules, feeding about 22 million people by 2050. 

Bio-Resources of Denmark 

We used the model for Denmark’s bioresources, DK-BioRes. Energy Modelling Lab developed this model for the Danish Energy Agency in 2021. We have updated and tailored the model to meet the needs of CONCITO. The model contains data on Denmark’s bioresources, i.e., agricultural land, forests, natural areas, and aquaculture. 

The model and the data sources used are available on GitHub

Based on the input on crop distribution, livestock, land distribution, and desired applied technologies that the model receives, it can analyze how biomass flows through a network of processes. The results include the final production, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions. 

Potential pathways 

The model can generate scenarios showing the pathway to a specific target. For the CONCITO scenarios, the set target is that the Danish agricultural sector keeps contributing to global food production on the present scale relative to the global population growth.

The scenarios generated show which kind and quantities of crops and livestock production could meet the target. They also show the land use needed. The non-edible bi-products such as straw are also included in the calculations of final material production. 

In general, the focus of CONCITO in transforming the food system is to ensure sufficient healthy food in the least space possible with the least greenhouse gas emissions and negative impact on nature, the environment, and animal welfare. 

During 2024, CONCITO is running the project Rethink Denmark with a special focus on land use.

Open-access model 

The DK-BioRes model was developed under the program of the Bioenergy Taskforce. The model is calibrated to use 2019 as the base year. The data used are from Statistics Denmark. For the CONCITO scenarios, data on calories for edible products have been added to the model. 

The DK-BioRes is built in Excel and is an open-access and open-source model. The model and the data sources used are available on GitHub

Energy Model Lab has also developed a new and updated version of the DK-BioRes model, tailored to meet requirements from the Climate Council. We handed the model over to the Climate Council in March 2024. 

Overview of the DK-BioRes model:

 

Documentation report

The documentation report on the scenarios, “The Danish Bio Ressource”, is available in Danish only.

Client: CONCITO 

Budget: DKK 160.000,00 

EML-team: Ida Græsted 

Duration: Spring 2024 

Newsletter Winter 2024

View of Turin

The past year has been very active and productive as we show in our Newsletter Winter 2024. We have created the TIMES-KUWAIT model and further developed the TIMES-Vietnam, TIMES-Jordan, and TIMES-NEU models. The latter covers Northern Europe. We have also embarked on several research projects. One focuses on PtX, another on modelling the AFOLU sector. A third project is focusing on supporting local authorities to speed up the green transition.

Inspired by community

We were pleased to attend the Semi-annual ETSAP meeting in Turin in November. Our consultant Till Ben Brahim made a presentation on the possibility for the Nordic countries, especially Denmark, to become a green hub for the export of green hydrogen and electricity to Europe. He showed scenarios generated by the TIMES-NEU model that we have used to analyze future energy markets in the Nordics.

Furthermore, we had the opportunity to network and agree with colleagues from Italy, Belgium, and the Nordic countries to team up regularly and share results from our work.

View of Turin
Kuwait City skyline
Creating the TIMES-KUWAIT model

We have contributed to the first steps of strategic energy planning in Kuwait as consultants on the project Developing Kuwait’s Long-Term Climate Pathways. In the first place, we developed a database for energy and GHG emissions. Next, we created the TIMES-KUWAIT model and generated different scenarios including rapid expansion of the renewable fuel market and reduced exports.

The government of Kuwait has pledged to reach net-zero emissions in the oil and gas sector by 2050 and by 2060 for the whole country.

Best location of PtXplants

As part of MissionGreenFuels, EML is collaborating with 13 partners on the PtX Sector Coupling and Life Cycle Assessment Project. The expected result is to create better ways to determine optimal ways of integrating PtX into the green transition. To this end, we are developing and updating the TIMES-NEU model.

Iconic portray of PtX

Please find the Newsletter 2024 below.

Hydrogen fuel cells in shipping

It’s necessary to ban the use of fossil fuels to complete the green transition in shipping. To put it short, this is the main finding of our research study: “Hydrogen fuel cells in shipping: A policy case study of Denmark, Norway, and Sweden”. The study resulted from a collaboration with colleagues in Iceland. It was published in the leading journal Marine Policy (May 2024).

The study aims to identify the policy instruments needed to accelerate the uptake of hydrogen fuel cells for the shipping industries in Denmark, Norway, and Sweden.

Hydrogen fuel cells are promising for reducing emissions from shipping. However, their adoption is limited by high costs, lack of regulations, and lack of infrastructure. This is why there is a need for policies that spur investments in hydrogen fuel cells.

The three policy packages

Together with our fellow researchers, we tested three policy packages with different degrees of ambition (low, medium, and high). Our findings indicated that the proposed taxes on CO2 emissions and fossil fuels can help drive the transition away from fossil fuels. Meanwhile, the complete transition requires a ban on the use of fossil fuels.

The three policy packages were formulated based on discussions during workshops with key stakeholders from Nordic Shipping. During the workshops, we also learned that the participants are paying high attention to a “chicken and egg” paradox: Without the demand for green hydrogen, no supply, and vice versa. This has not been reflected in previous studies.

Correspondingly, a coordinated regional approach and cross-sector and cross-industry collaboration are needed. Otherwise, we cannot overcome the paradox and help balance the supply and demand for Nordic shipping

Modelling

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MODEL

We used the TIMES-NEU model, an economic model generator for energy systems, to evaluate the three different policy packages. EML has developed the TIMES-NEU model.

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SCENARIOS

Estimated total fuel consumption in PJ/year; CO2 emissions by fuel in thousand tons of CO2 emissions/year; revenue from the tax on fossil fuels in million Euros/year; ferry segment fuel consumption in PJ/year.

RESULTS

The main finding was that policies are needed to spur investments. Meanwhile, it’s necessary to ban fossil fuels to complete the green transition of shipping.

Other scenarios included in the study show estimated CAPEX and OPEX in million Euros/year, estimated CAPEX and OPEX for the ferry segment in million, and estimated CAPEX and OPEX of the mandate of ferries to use hydrogen in comparison to the policy packages in million Euros/year.

The research study is part of the HOPE Project: The authors of the article are:
Mauricio Latapí, Brynhildur DavidsdottirDavid Cook, Lara Johannsdottir, MBA, Ph.D., Andrea Marin Radoszynski, and Kenneth Karlsson.

We are grateful for the financial support towards the HOPE project provided by the following organizations: the Nordic Energy Research, the Norwegian Research Council, the Swedish Transport Administration, the Icelandic Centre for Research, Business Finland, the Danish Energy Agency, Stena Rederi AB, and PowerCell Sweden AB.

Production of green fuels for shipping

Ane Mærsk running on green fuel
Ane Mærsk running on green fuel

The television program 21 Sunday focused on the production of green fuels for shipping in the edition broadcasted on DR on 11 February. Energy Modeling Lab has made the calculations on which DR bases the main point of the broadcast: It is a huge challenge to build up the production of green fuels and establish the supply lines for green shipping.

DR used Ane Mærsk as an example. It is a brand-new container ship that can sail on green methanol. To make enough green methanol for Ane Mærsk to sail for a year, electricity must be used from a solar park the size of the one in Kassø in Southern Jutland. This is what our calculations show. The solar park in Kassø is the largest in Northern Europe.

Maersk’s goal is that 25 percent of the company’s fleet must sail on green fuels in 2030. If it sails on green methanol, and the power is to be supplied from solar parks in Denmark, it will require approximately 120 parks of the same size as Kassø.

We have used the Danish Energy Agency’s technology catalog as the basis for our calculations. The catalog shows how much power different technologies can be assumed to produce calculated on average.

All our calculations

All our calculations can be studied closely in the Excel sheet

Calculations-of-Area-Use-for-Green-Fuels-for-Shipping

We have calculated the needed area use for six different types of green fuel production:

  • First generation biofuel
  • Second generation biofue
  • A mixture of first- and second-generation biofuel
  • Solar plants in Denmark
  • Solar plants in Morocco
  • Wind farms in the North Sea

We show the needed area use as percentages of the following areas:

Denmark, Falster, Langeland, Horns Rev3, Morocco, Denmark’s agricultural area, Bhadla Solar Park (one of the world’s largest solar parks located in India), the Amazon, and soccer fields.

We have calculated the needed area use to produce green fuel for Ane Mærsk, 25 percent of Maersk’s fleet, 100 percent of Maersk’s fleet, and 100 percent of international shipping.

Solar parks in Morocco

We do not expect that large-scale production of green methanol on solar energy will be built up in Denmark. Solar parks are more efficient further south. Therefore, we have also calculated how large an area would be required if solar parks were to be built in Morocco: In Morocco, a 254-hectare solar park would be needed to produce enough electricity for Ane Mærsk. The facility in Kassø occupies 326 hectares.

To supply 25 percent of Mærsk’s fleet with green methanol, solar parks must be built in Morocco, corresponding to 60 percent of Falster’s area. It is Maersk’s goal that the company’s entire fleet sail on green fuels by 2040. This will require solar parks in an area equivalent to two and a half times Falster’s (247 percent) if they are indeed built in Morocco.

If we take the area of ​​one of the world’s largest solar parks, namely Bhadla Solar Park in India, Maersk will need the production of electricity from 22 parks of Bhadla’s size. Bhadla Solar Park covers an area of ​​5700 hectares.

If all international shipping is to sail on green methanol, electricity equivalent to the output of almost 740 solar parks of Bhadla’s size must be produced.

Supply from offshore wind turbines

If all international shipping is to sail on green methanol, it will require as much power as approximately 3290 offshore wind farms can produce. This calculation assumes that the offshore wind farm has the same size and performance as Horns Rev3 in the North Sea. We have chosen to use Horns Rev3 in the North Sea as an example because it is one of the world’s most efficient wind farms.

Green methanol from biofuels

Until now, green fuels have primarily been produced from plants such as corn, soybeans, and rapeseed. It is called first-generation biofuel. Maersk opts out of using that type of fuel. If all international shipping were to sail on first-generation biofuel produced from soybeans, an area the size of more than half of the Amazon would have to be harvested every year.

It is also possible to use residual products such as soy straw to make biofuel. It is referred to as second-generation biofuel.

If Maersk’s entire fleet were to sail on second-generation biofuel produced from soy straw, an area equivalent to more than twice the area of ​​Denmark would have to be harvested every year. If the entire world’s fleet were to sail on this type of biofuel, an area equivalent to almost 74 times the area of ​​Denmark would have to be harvested.

Related video and articles on DR’s website


Nu kommer Mærsks grønnere skibe sejlende

Søfarten omstiller sig i sneglefart

Video explainer: Så meget plads kræver fremtidens grønne skibe

Our calculations

Calculations-of-Area-Use-for-Green-Fuels-for-Shipping

Duration: February 2024

EML team: Kenneth Karlsson and Ida Græsted Jensen

Den grønne skibsfarts behov for brændstof

Ane Mærsk running on green fuel
Ane Mærsk running on green fuel

DR’s 21 søndag satte fokus på den grønne skibsfarts behov for brændstof i udsendelsen bragt den 11. februar. Energy Modelling Lab har lavet de beregninger, som DR bygger udsendelsens hovedpointe på: Det er en kæmpe udfordring at opbygge produktionen af grønne brændstoffer og etablere forsyningslinjerne til den grønne skibsfart.

DR brugte Ane Mærsk som eksempel. Det er et spritnyt containerskib, der kan sejle på grøn metanol. For at lave grøn metanol nok til, at Ane Mærsk kan sejle i et år, skal der bruges strøm fra en solcellepark på størrelse med den i Kassø i Sønderjylland. Det viser vores beregninger. Solcelleparken i Kassø er Nordeuropas største.

Mærsk har som mål, at 25 pct. af virksomhedens flåde skal sejle på grønt brændstof i 2030. Hvis den sejler på grøn metanol, og strømmen skal leveres fra solcelleparker i Danmark, vil det kræve omtrent 120 parker af samme størrelse som Kassø.

Vi har anvendt Energistyrelsens teknologi katalog som grundlag for vores beregninger. Kataloget viser, hvor meget strøm forskellige teknologier kan antages at producere beregnet ud fra gennemsnit.

Alle vores beregninger

Alle vores beregninger kan nærstuderes i Excel arket:

Vi har beregnet areal-forbruget for seks forskellige former for produktion af grønt brændstof:

  • Første generation biobrændstof
  • Anden generation biobrændstof
  • Blanding af første og anden generation biobrændstof
  • Solcelleanlæg i Danmark
  • Solcelleanlæg i Marokko
  • Vindmølleparker i Nordsøen

Vi viser areal-forbruget som procentdele af følgende arealer:

Danmark, Falster, Langeland, Horns Rev3, Marokko, Danmarks landbrugsareal, Bhadla Solar Park (en af verdens største solcelleparker, som ligger i Indien), Amazonas og fodboldbaner.

Vi har beregnet areal-forbruget til produktion af grønt brændstof for henholdsvis Ane Mærsk, 25 pct. af Mærsk’ flåde, 100 pct. af Mærsk’ flåde og 100 pct. af den internationale skibsfart.

Solcelleparker i Marokko

I virkelighedens verden bliver det ikke i Danmark, at man opfører solcelleparker i stor skala til produktion af grøn metanol. Solcelleparker er mere effektive længere syd på. Derfor har vi også beregnet hvor stort et areal, der vil kræves, hvis man opfører solcelleparker i Marokko: I Marokko skal man bruge en 254 hektar stor solcellepark til at producere nok strøm til Ane Mærsk. Anlægget i Kassø fylder 326 hektar.

Til at forsyne 25 pct. af Mærsk’ flåde med grøn metanol, skal man opføre solcelleparker i Marokko, der svarer til 60 procent af Falsters areal. Det er målet for Mærsk, at hele virksomhedens flåde sejler på grønne brændstoffer i 2040. Det vil kræve solcelleparker på et areal svarende til to og en halv gang Falsters (247 pct.), hvis de vel og mærke opføres i Marokko.

Hvis vi tager arealet på en af verdens største solcelle-parker, nemlig Bhadla Solar Park i Indien, så får Mærsk brug for produktionen af strøm fra 22 parker af Bhadla’s størrelse. Bhadla Solar Park dækker et areal på 5700 hektar.

Hvis hele den internationale skibsfart skal sejle på grøn metanol, skal der produceres strøm svarende til knap 740 solcelleparker af Bhadla’s størrelse.

Forsyning fra havvindmøller

Hvis hele den internationale skibsfart skal sejle på grøn metanol, vil det kræve lige så meget strøm, som omtrent 3290 havvindmølleparker kan producere. Denne beregning har som forudsætning, at havvindmølleparken har samme størrelse og ydeevne som Horns Rev3 i Nordsøen. Vi har valgt at bruge Horns Rev3 i Nordsøen, fordi det er en af verdens mest effektive vindmølleparker.

Grøn metanol fra biobrændstoffer

Hidtil har grønne brændstoffer primært være produceret på planter som majs, sojabønner og raps. Det kaldes for første generation biobrændstof. Mærsk fravælger at bruge den type brændstof. Hvis hele den internationale skibsfart skulle sejle på første generation biobrændstof fremstillet på sojabønner, skulle man hvert år høste et areal på størrelse med mere end halvdelen af Amazonas.

Det er også muligt at bruge restprodukter som sojahalm til at lave biobrændstof. Det betegnes som anden generation biobrændstof.

Hvis hele Mærsk’ flåde skulle sejle på anden generations biobrændstof fremstillet på sojahalm, skulle man hvert år høste fra et areal svarende til mere end det dobbelte af Danmarks areal. Hvis hele verdens flåde skulle sejle på denne type biobrændstof, skulle man høste på et areal svarende til næsten 74 gange Danmarks areal.

Relateret video og artikler på DRs hjemmeside

Nu kommer Mærsks grønnere skibe sejlende

Søfarten omstiller sig i sneglefart

Video explainer: Så meget plads kræver fremtidens grønne skibe

Beregningerne

Duration: February 2024

EML Team: Ida Græsted and Kenneth Karlsson

Partnership model for municipalities

Kenneth Karlsson make a presentation
Kenneth Karlsson make a presentation

How can local authorities mitigate resistance from citizens to new renewable energy plants and facilities? In a new report, a partnership model for municipalities is presented as a solution. The model is the result of a two-year project, The Future Green Energy and the Citizens, launched by the Danish Board of Technology and Deltager Danmark (Participation Denmark).

The model divides the process of developing partnerships into five phases. The centerpiece is to establish a local dialogue forum with representatives of all local stakeholders. When organized and tailored to the local community culture, a process of dialogue can ensure local ownership and legitimacy. Correspondingly, such a process has the merit of contributing to more informed and better decisions, efficient use of resources, and innovative solutions. Most importantly, it saves time because the stakeholders have opportunities to iron out misunderstandings and conflicts.

Citizen summits

The project took place in the municipalities of Kalundborg, Vordingborg, and Holbæk. The local citizens have been engaging in meetings such as “citizen summits”. We contributed as independent experts in energy planning. We have presented possible scenarios of the green transition of the local energy supply.

To give the participants a better sense of the implications, we have presented more detailed charts. One chart showed the land use needed to produce 1 million MWh by energy production facilities using respectively solar, wind, and biomass. Others explained the estimated increase in demand for electricity and the needed increase in production.

The title of the report means From Resistance to Tailwind

Project: Fremtidens Grønne Energi og Borgerne (“Future Green Energy and the Citizens”)

Duration: 2022-2023

ClientThe Danish Board of Technology

Budget: DKK 100,000

Contact person: Niels-Kristian Tjelle Holm

EML Team: Ida Græsted Jensen and Kenneth Karlsson

Speeding up Nordic Green Transition

Windmills on Bornholm
Windmills on Bornholm

We will be collaborating with Danish, Swedish, Norwegian, and Finnish partners on a major research project entitled SpeedLocal. The aim is to speeding up the Nordic green transition. Together we will develop guidance tools for addressing the “not in my backyard” complexities and the challenges of integrating energy planning on the national level with implementation on the local level.

The research project is a transdisciplinary initiative. It engages experts in stakeholder engagement, policy analysis, landscape analysis, participatory processes, and energy system modelling. The final guidance tools will also reflect the results from three case studies: the Norwegian municipality of Trondelag, the Swedish municipality of Skaraborg, and the Danish municipality of Bornholm.

Emphasis on local values

In these places, the local authorities are in the process of implementing national energy policies. EML will focus on adapting the TIMES-Nordic energy system model to work on municipality levels. Also, we will work on the case study of Bornholm. Working closely together with Bornholm municipality, we will identify the barriers to green transition and strategies to overcome them.

An important dimension of the project is the emphasis on the values of local nature and landscapes. An overarching aim is thus to find ways to integrate local insights and considerations into the broader national and Nordic energy planning analyses. By doing so, the legitimacy and policy relevance could improve.

Icon of modelling

Modelling

The TIMES-Nordic model will be adapted for local cases and integrate specific constraints

Icon of scenario analysis

Analysis

The analysis of the results will be translated into a Strategy Kit that contains instructions and guidance.

Icon of report/results

Results

The Strategy Kit can be utilized to formulate evidence-based policy recommendations.

Project: SpeedLocal

Duration: 2024-2026

Client: Nordic Energy Research

Programme: Nordic Grand Solutions Programme

Total budget: NOK 25 mio.

Project owner: Energiforsk AB

Reference: Lise Nielson, senior advisor, Nordic Energy Research

Partners: IVL, Institute for Energy Technology, LabLab, Luleå University of Technology,

VTT, Technical University of Denmark, Bornholm municipality, Skaraborg municipality, Vara municipality, Trondelag municipality

EML team:  Andrea Radoszynski, Ida Græsted Jensen and Till ben Brahim

Model: TIMES-Nordic

Agricultural and forestry sectors’ emissions

cows in a row

At present, the agricultural and forestry sectors’ emissions account for almost 20% of the total global emissions. Even so, these two sectors are largely neglected in the existing energy system modelling frameworks. There is simply no available data module to enable analyses. Meanwhile, we expect that our new research project will remedy this.

The research project is named Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use Sector Modeling in TIMES (AFOLU). The result should be a demo model of a new data module. The demo model will be standardized and flexible. Thus, it will enable energy system modellers to properly model factors such as the forest capacity of CO2 uptake. Other important factors could be the consequences of replacing crops for biofuel production or optimizing irrigation systems for instance.

Energy Modelling Lab will carry out the research project together with four partners: E4SMA, the Institute for Energy Technology (IFE), University College Cork (UCC), and VITO. We expect to finalize the new module in 2025. We are receiving funding from The Energy Technology Systems Analysis Program, IEA-ETSAP.

Transformative step

Our project builds on ongoing work by Energy Modelling Lab and E4SMA to develop a demo version of the AFOLU module. The primary objective is to consolidate knowledge from various partners and create a standardized, flexible AFOLU module that can seamlessly integrate with any TIMES model.

The new module will enable the ETSAP community to conduct a more integrated, holistic scenario analysis. It will be possible to consider the dynamic interactions between energy systems and the AFOLU sector. Moreover, we see it as a transformative step toward enabling energy system modellers to address climate change impacts and designate pathways to sustainable, net-zero economies.

Duration: 2023-2025

Client: The Energy Technology Systems Analysis Program, IEA-ETSAP

Budget: Euro 68,000

Reference: Kathleen Vaillancourt

Partners: E4SMA, the Institute for Energy Technology (IFE), University College Cork (UCC), and VITO

EML team: Kenneth Karlsson and Ida Græsted Jensen

Model: TIMES

Supporting District Energy Decarbonization

Photo of Copenhill thermal power plant with visible smoke

Energy Modelling Lab has joined TEN21, a collaboration platform supporting district energy decarbonization. We are organized by the Swedish Environmental Research Institute (IVL) as a collaboration between experts across the district energy value chain. The name reflects our focus: Thermal Energy Networks for 21 Degrees of Indoor Comfort, TEN21.

Heating and cooling of buildings make up for a substantial part of energy consumption and total CO2 emissions. So far, only 20% of the heating and cooling provided to buildings in the European Union is produced by using green energy. In comparison, research has shown that 35% of the heating and cooling demand in the EU could be met by using waste heat, an asset with limited use today.

Advancing and supporting district energy decarbonization is therefore of great importance for reaching the goal of net-zero emissions.

Services

The team of TEN21 has the experience, network, and expertise to deliver the services of

  • Committing local authorities and stakeholders
  • Provide a holistic analysis of local district energy systems and resources
  • Identify least-cost and emission solutions using the most feasible technologies
  • Design roadmaps and identify replicable and bankable investment projects (we identify what to invest in, how large the installation should be, when in time it should be realized, and when existing assets should be retired)
  • Develop models for business and finance

Approach

We tailor the energy system model TIMES to analyze city-level district energy systems. Using the model enables us to process all data on energy production, consumption, and resources as well as data on buildings, industries, transportation, land use, and other of the studied locations. Based on the analysis, we study different scenarios and identify the optimal solutions.

Duration: April 2021 – ongoing

ProjectTEN21

PartnersSweedish Environmental Research InstituteResourceful FuturesEURAC ResearchNODA Intelligent SystemsREWARDHeat

Energy Modelling Lab ContactKenneth Karlsson and Ida Græsted Jensen