We are contributing to the “Low-Carbon Solutions in the Electric Power Sector of Azerbaijan Technical Assistance Project”, which is producing a roadmap that recommends the policies and technologies Azerbaijan needs to decarbonise its power sector.
Azerbaijan relies heavily on oil and gas, which accounted for 91 percent of its total exports and almost 48 percent of GDP in 2022. In 2021, natural gas dominated electricity generation at 94 percent, followed by hydropower at 4.6 percent and solar and wind at just 0.5 percent, even though the country has considerable solar and wind potential that investors have already begun to develop.
We are updating and tailoring TIMES-Azerbaijan, a model we originally developed for the European Commission in 2021, to build three scenarios: a business as usual case reflecting current and planned low-carbon policies, a high economic growth scenario targeting carbon neutrality by 2050, and a low economic growth scenario with the same carbon neutrality target.
We are updating and tailoring the TIMES-Azerbaijan model, built on the TIMES energy systems modelling framework, to reflect current data and policy for Azerbaijan’s power sector.
We are creating a business as usual scenario and two scenarios targeting net zero for the energy sector by 2050, testing how different rates of economic growth affect the pathway to carbon neutrality.
We are also designing and leading the stakeholder engagement, consultation and communications, so that key stakeholders understand the modelling approach, agree on the scenario assumptions and take full ownership of a roadmap that is credible, robust and workable.
Client: Tetra Tech
Reference: Memorandum of Understanding between the Ministry of Energy of Azerbaijan and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD)
Collaborators: Not stated on the existing page
EML team: Kenneth Karlsson, Till ben Brahim, Andrea Radoszynski, Pernille Bramming
Budget: EURO 52,400
Duration: 2024 to 2025
Model: TIMES-Azerbaijan