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Enhancing energy planning in Viet Nam

Energy Modelling Lab is enhancing energy planning in Viet Nam

Viet Nam is a regional manufactural hub and one of the most dynamic countries in East Asia, with the GDP annual growth rate averaging 6.2 per cent from 2000 until 2023. According to the analysis in the Viet Nam Energy Outlook Report 2021, electricity consumption will more than double in 2050 compared to 2020.

Viet Nam has pledged to reach the target of net-zero emissions by 2050. This means that the power system must meet more than 70 per cent of the total final energy demand with renewable energy-based electricity.

Energy Modelling Lab supports the endeavours to enhance energy planning in Viet Nam. We assist the Vietnamese authorities by building up their planning capacities concerning scenario-based, long-term modelling of the Vietnamese energy system. To this end, we are integrating an updated technology catalogue in the present energy system model and have included electricity storage solutions, P2X, nuclear technologies, optimal use of biomass, and carbon capture and storage.

Building DK-BioRes

MODELLING

Energy Modelling Lab updates the technology catalogue that is integrated into the present energy system model.

The catalogue includes decarbonisation technologies that are not yet being used and describes costs and relevant technical parameters.

ANALYSIS

The catalogue contributes to fostering data-driven discussions and understanding of the potential of decarbonization technologies.

The expected outcome of this process is a broader consensus on the potential.

RESULTS

The results will be integrated into the existing energy system model and can create first insights into cost-optimal applications of these technologies.

The results will contribute to making the Viet Nam Energy Outlook Report 2023 more comprehensive and enable decision-making on investments.

Duration: November 2022 – August 2023

EML Team: Kenneth Karlsson, Ida Græsted Jensen &Till ben Brahim

Client: UNOPS

Budget: DKK 93.438

Reference: Maurizio Gargiulo, Director of E4SMA

Collaborators: Electricity and Renewable Energy Authority (EREA, Vietnam), Danish Energy Agency (DEA) and E4SMA

Model: TIMES-VNM

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Net-zero emissions in Kuwait

Kuwait City skyline
Energy Modelling Lab helps reaching net-zero emissions in Kuwait

Kuwait is becoming one of the hottest countries on the planet and faces profound social and ecological challenges from continued global warming and the transition from fossil fuels. The government has pledged to reach net-zero emissions in the oil and gas sector by 2050 and by 2060 for the whole country.

At present, oil accounts for 90 % of the national revenue and more than half of GDP, and renewable energy for less than 1 % of demand. Kuwait thus needs clever and comprehensive solutions. With abundant wind and solar resources, the potential is at hand.

Energy Modelling Lab supports steps to reach net-zero emissions in Kuwait by 2060. We are developing an energy systems model, the TIMES-KUWIAT, that allows us to identify the least-cost and most feasible green energy systems. Based on these results we can designate pathways to integrate the new solutions across five key sectors: Energy, Industry, Agriculture, land use, and Waste.

Building DK-BioRes

MODELLING

Energy Modelling Lab develops a database for energy and GHG emissions, builds consensus on ambitions, and shortlists decarbonization options.

We develop the TIMES-KUWAIT model featuring different scenarios including rapid expansion of the renewable fuel market and reduced exports.

SCENARIO ANALYSIS

Analyzing the different scenarios allows for informed decision-making on the optimal solutions integrated across sectors.

Socioeconomic and environmental impacts and co-benefits such as improved health are identified and considered.

RESULTS

Results are presented in a website format with open access and all key results are shared in Excel sheets.

Users can move between scenarios and study results like emissions and energy consumption by sector and costs.

Duration: August 2022 – June 2024

External experts from EML : Mikkel Bosack Simonsen and Ida Græsted Jensen

Client: UNEP

Total budget: USD 64.920

Reference: Sarah Carmen Fiedler, associate expert, UNEP

Collaborators: SDA Sustainable Development Advisors

Model: TIMES

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Low emission strategy in Jordan

Solar energy in Jordan. Energy Modelling Lab is assisting to develop a low emission strategy for Jordan.

Jordan is considered to be among the world’s most vulnerable to drought as a result of climate change. Major challenges are aridity, water scarcity, heavy reliance on fossil energy imports and rapid growth in population and urbanization.

The government is now addressing the need for a transition to a greener and more resilient economy. One important step is developing a National Long-Term Low Emission Strategy and Options Report 2050.

Energy Modelling Lab is contributing to developing a low-emission strategy in Jordan. We are creating a central modelling framework representing eight key sectors and their interconnections. By embedding baseline scenarios, we can estimate the impact of different options for decarbonization. We then create a shortlist of the least cost and most feasible options and are able to designate the optimal pathways.

Building DK-BioRes

MODELLING
Energy Modelling Lab shortlists decarbonization options, identifies cross-sector synergies and develops an integrated model.

The model includes a full investment catalogue for the entire energy sector and shows the economically optimal pathways through the jungle of technological solutions.

SCENARIO ANALYSIS
Through a series of scenarios, we can investigate the consequences of different climate scenarios and consider prioritized mitigation actions.

We also identify and consider socioeconomic and environmental impacts and co-benefits such as improved health and energy savings.

REPORT
The final report proposes optimal decarbonization pathways and provides policy recommendations that are validated through workshops with key stakeholders.

The Jordanian Government will have a solid basis for a continuously informed decision process as we will build up local partner capacity to use and update the model.

Duration: August 2022 – June 2024

EML Team: Kenneth Karlsson, Mikkel Bosack Simonsen, Ida Græsted Jensen 

Client: The World Bank

Budget: DKK 679,250

Reference: Karsten Holm, Danish Energy Management

Collaborators: Danish Energy Management (DEM) and the Water, Energy and Environment

Center (WEEC) of the University of Jordan

Model: TIMES-JO

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Net zero by 2050 in Vietnam

The Vietnamese economy is growing, and so is the demand for energy. As the country moves forward new investments in clean energy and infrastructure are highly needed. Energy Modelling Lab has developed scenarios to reach the target of net zero by 2050 in Vietnam.

The power generation and storage capacity should be 30 times higher than the current capacity.

Electricity should primarily come from solar power combined with batteries.

Power transmission should be increased by 40% compared to the present capacity.

The Vietnamese economy and energy consumption is growing.

Download the Energy Outlook Report 2021 for Vietnam

The report is written by the Electricity and Renewable Energy Authority in Vietnam (EREA) along with the Danish Energy Agency. Energy Modelling Lab has contributed to both the analysis and the report.

Vietnam Energy Outlook Report 2021Download

Duration: 2020 – 2022

EML Team: Ida Græsted Jensen, Till ben Brahim and Kenneth Karlsson

Client: This project is part of the Framework contracts with Global Cooperation at the Danish Energy Agency

Budget: DKK 410,373

Reference: Ole Emmik Søresen, Head of Divison Corporation the Danish Energy Agency

Collaborators: Ea Energy Analyses, Institute of Energy, E4SMA, Aarhus University

Model: TIMES

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The role of fossil gas in the Nordics

We participated in a research project exploring the role of fossil gas in the Nordics. The challenge of reducing the dependency on fossil gas differs between the Nordic countries. Therefore each country has its own set of challenges to solve.

Norway exports while Sweden and Finland import gas

Denmark is connected to central Europe and receives the gas mix in the grid from both Russia and Norway. (The Danish gas production is temporarily low due to maintenance of the Tyra Field).

Finland gets gas directly from Russia and through Estonia.

Norway exports a large amount of gas mainly to central Europe and partly to the Danish grid.

Sweden gets gas from the European grid through Denmark.

The import and export of fossil gas in the Nordic countries (2020). Source: Eurostat
Fossil gas use differs between the nordic countries

In Denmark around 350,000 buildings are heated by gas, and switching to district heating or heat pumps is a major task in the years to come.

Finland primarily uses gas for electricity and heat production and industry, especially pulp and paper and iron, and steel production consumes large amounts of gas. Switching to green energy sources in these processes is the primary task for Finland.

Norway does not have a high domestic gas use in the society as such, but fossil fuel extraction uses a large amount of gas today. Electrification of energy production can reduce fossil gas consumption substantially.

Sweden mainly uses gas for non-energy purposes such as fertilizer and plastics, but also for process heat in iron and steel production, chemical industry, and pulp and paper production.

The use of fossil gas differs between the Nordic countries. Source: Eurostat

If you want to dive into more details on the role of fossil gas in the Nordic countries, you can find the full analysis here. The analysis is made in collaboration with IVL and Energiforsk.

The role of fossil gas in the NordicsDownload

Duration: 2022

EML team: Kenneth Karlsson

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Data Center Waste Heat

In the future, Dublin will be heated by recycling thermal energy. Photo: Salim Darwiche (Wikipedia Commons)

In the Tallaght area of Dublin, there is a data center that needs cooling. At the same time, the surrounding households need heating. This is a perfect case for a mutually beneficial thermal energy network.  

It is also a perfect project for TEN21, a collaboration that Energy Modelling Lab is a partner of. In Dublin, the TEN21 toolbox has been used to support local officials on how to expand the district heating network to utilize waste heat from the data center. We have built an energy system model to find an efficient expansion strategy from a techno-economic perspective. In addition, we created a strategy for commercializing the district heating activity on a cost-recovery basis.  

All of this has been done in close dialogue with South Dublin County Council and Dublin’s Energy Agency to ensure that the work will have a real-world impact. 

The TEN21 project is assisting cities all over Europe to deliver climate-friendly thermal energy.

Sewage as part of the future heating and cooling

If you want to learn more about recycling heat from for example sewage, metros, and datacenters, then go to TEN21.eu.

This is an example of a thermal energy network. Here, waste from several sources is recycled as heating for public buildings. You can read more at TEN21.eu.
Building DK-BioRes

MODELLING DUBLIN

We developed an optimization model within the TIMES framework.

It first and foremost covers the heat and power sector in Dublin. But this model has an especially high level of detail.

NEUTRAL SCENARIOS

Energy Modelling Lab developed a series of CO2-neutral scenarios for cooling and heating in Dublin.

In this way, we can identify the perfect fit for each district.

Duration: April 2021

Project: TEN21

Partners: South Dublin County Council, Dublin’s Energy Agency (CODEMA)

Energy Modelling Lab Contact: We participated in a research project exploring the role of fossil gas in the N Ida Græsted Jensen and Andrea Marin Radoszynski

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Clean Nordic shipping

With a combined coastline of 43.000 km trading and traveling by sea is essential in the Nordic countries. At present, the maritime industry is facing a challenging green transition, diverting away from fossil fuels towards renewable energy sources. Probing the possibilities for clean Nordic shipping is more relevant than ever.

There are many possible paths to a sustainable Nordic shipping industry. Energy Modelling Lab is involved in the HOPE project, launched by Nordic Energy Research. The full name of the project is Hydrogen Fuel Cells Solutions in shipping in relation to other low-carbon options – a Nordic perspective.

HOPE analyses alternatives for CO2-neutral marine fuels and propulsion technologies from a Nordic point of view, by assessing the role of hydrogen and fuel cell solutions in relation to other low or zero-carbon fuel options.

SCENARIO ANALYSIS
Through a series of scenario studies, the Nordic energy model (ON-TIMES) is used to find the optimal paths to a fossil-free shipping industry.

TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT
The project has a special focus on hydrogen and fuel cells in relation to the other low-carbon options.

Duration: November 2021 – February 2023

EML team: Kenneth Karlsson, Andrea Marin Radoszynski & Alexandra O’Sullivan Freltoft

Partners: IVL – Svenska Miljöinstitutet

Client: Nordic Energy Research

Budget: DKK 148,000

Reference: Julie Hansson, Senior Project Manager

Model: The Open Nordic TIMES model (ON-TIMES) can be found open source in our GitHub repository.

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Energy strategy in Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan means the land of fire and energy resources as natural gas simply sets the country on fire. As the country moves forward new investments in energy and infrastructure are needed.

To ensure an informed decision process Energy Modelling Lab has supported the Government of Azerbaijan in developing and implementing a long-term energy strategy.

Building DK-BioRes

MODELLING
Energy Modelling Lab has developed and implemented a full energy model (TIMES-AZ) for Azerbaijan, connecting all relevant sectors from energy and heating to transport and industry.

SCENARIO ANALYSIS
The model is used for long-term energy systems and climate policy planning.

TRAINING
Energy Modelling Lab is supporting the Government of Azerbaijan with training in the use of the energy system model.

Duration: November 2020 – November 2021

External experts from the EML Team: Kenneth Karlsson, Mikkel Bosack Simonsen, Till ben Brahim & Andrea Marin Radoszynski

Client: Government of Azerbaijan

Consortium: Rambøll, NIRAS, Equinoccio

Reference: Angel Diez, Managing Partner, Equinoccio

Donor: The EU Commission

Budget: DKK 644,425

Model: TIMES-AZ

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Climate neutral agriculture in Denmark

The Danish agricultural sector is facing the green transition and many ideas have been proposed to reach climate-neutral agriculture in Denmark by 2050. In this brief, we suggest two pathways to climate neutrality to follow the general goals of a 70% reduction in 2030 and a 100% reduction in 2050.

70% greenhouse gas reduction by 2030

100% greenhouse gas neutral by 2050

No animal feed import by 2050

Technology-optimistic or technology-independent

The first scenario is a technology-optimistic scenario, while the second scenario to a larger extent can reach the goals without technological development. In both scenarios, a large increase in the forest areas is necessary such that the forest area in 2050 is approximately double the area of today.

In the technology-optimistic scenario, the amount of farm animals can be kept at the same level as today because the biogas and pyrolysis plants can reduce part of the emissions and the forests compensate for the rest of the emissions. In the technology-independent scenario, it is necessary to reduce the amount of farm animals to reach the climate targets.

Key figures

FOREST
1.000.000 ha, roughly 23% of the Danish land mass, must be covered in forest by 2050.

The forestation should happen sooner rather than later so 160.000 – 200.000 ha should be converted into forest already by 2030.

LOW LAND AREAS
100.000 ha of carbon-rich lowland soil should be converted into natural areas by 2030.

All 178.700 ha low land soil must be converted into nature by 2050.

ANIMALS
In a technology-optimistic scenario, with a sharp increase in forest area, animal production can remain the same size as today.

In a technology-independent scenario a 15% reduction in animal production by 2030, and a 30% reduction in 2050 relative to today is necessary.

If the steep forest area does not happen, a further reduction in animal production is necessary.

Read the full analysis

Klimaneutralt dansk landbrug (2021)Download

The model is open-sourced

Make scenarios yourself. Download the full model used for the brief from our GitHub repository.

Duration: 2021

EML-Team: Kenneth Karlsson and Ida Græsted

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Vietnam’s long-term energy strategy

The Vietnamese economy is growing, and so is the energy demand. As the country moves forward new investments in clean energy and infrastructure are highly needed.

Energy Modelling Lab supports the Vietnamese government in developing and implementing a long-term energy strategy.

Building DK-BioRes

MODELLING
Energy Modelling Lab has further developed the transport sector in the energy systems model for Vietnam.

The model connects all relevant sectors from energy and heating to transport, industry, and health.

SCENARIO ANALYSIS
The model is used for long-term energy systems and climate policy planning. The scenarios show different paths to reach the Vietnamese government’s climate targets.

REPORT
The scenario results serve as a foundation for the development of the Vietnam Energy Outlook report, showing the path ahead for the Vietnamese energy system.

Duration: 2020 – 2022

EML Team: Ida Græsted Jensen, Till ben Brahim and Kenneth Karlsson

Client: This project is part of the Framework contracts with Global Cooperation at the Danish Energy Agency

Collaborators: Ea Energy Analyses, Institute of Energy, E4SMA, Aarhus University

Model: TIMES