Frontpage projects Archives - Page 2 of 3 - Energy System Modelling & Planning

12th February 202413th August 2024

Den grønne skibsfarts behov for brændstof

DR’s program 21 Søndag satte fokus på den grønne skibsfarts behov for brændstof i udsendelsen bragt den 11. februar. Energy Modelling Lab har udarbejdet de beregninger, som DR bygger udsendelsens hovedpointe på: Det er en kæmpe udfordring at opbygge produktionen af grønne brændstoffer og etablere forsyningslinjerne til den grønne skibsfart.

DR brugte Ane Mærsk som eksempel. Det er et spritnyt containerskib, der kan sejle på grøn metanol. For at lave grøn metanol nok til, at Ane Mærsk kan sejle i et år, skal der bruges strøm fra en solcellepark på størrelse med den i Kassø i Sønderjylland. Det viser vores beregninger. Solcelleparken i Kassø er Nordeuropas største.

Mærsk har som mål, at 25 pct. af virksomhedens flåde skal sejle på grønt brændstof i 2030. Hvis den sejler på grøn metanol, og strømmen skal leveres fra solcelleparker i Danmark, vil det kræve omtrent 120 parker af samme størrelse som Kassø.

Vi har anvendt Energistyrelsens teknologi katalog som grundlag for vores beregninger. Kataloget viser, hvor meget strøm forskellige teknologier kan antages at producere beregnet ud fra gennemsnit.

Alle vores beregninger

Alle vores beregninger kan nærstuderes i Excel arket:

Calculations-of-Area-Use-for-Green-Fuels-for-Shipping-1 Download

Vi har beregnet areal-forbruget for seks forskellige former for produktion af grønt brændstof:

Første generation biobrændstof
Anden generation biobrændstof
Blanding af første og anden generation biobrændstof
Solcelleanlæg i Danmark
Solcelleanlæg i Marokko
Vindmølleparker i Nordsøen

Vi viser areal-forbruget som procentdele af følgende arealer:

Danmark, Falster, Langeland, Horns Rev3, Marokko, Danmarks landbrugsareal, Bhadla Solar Park (en af verdens største solcelleparker, som ligger i Indien), Amazonas og fodboldbaner.

Vi har beregnet areal-forbruget til produktion af grønt brændstof for henholdsvis Ane Mærsk, 25 pct. af Mærsk’ flåde, 100 pct. af Mærsk’ flåde og 100 pct. af den internationale skibsfart.

Solcelleparker i Marokko

I virkelighedens verden bliver det ikke i Danmark, at man opfører solcelleparker i stor skala til produktion af grøn metanol. Solcelleparker er mere effektive længere syd på. Derfor har vi også beregnet hvor stort et areal, der vil kræves, hvis man opfører solcelleparker i Marokko: I Marokko skal man bruge en 254 hektar stor solcellepark til at producere nok strøm til Ane Mærsk. Anlægget i Kassø fylder 326 hektar.

Til at forsyne 25 pct. af Mærsk’ flåde med grøn metanol, skal man opføre solcelleparker i Marokko, der svarer til 60 procent af Falsters areal. Det er målet for Mærsk, at hele virksomhedens flåde sejler på grønne brændstoffer i 2040. Det vil kræve solcelleparker på et areal svarende til to og en halv gang Falsters (247 pct.), hvis de vel og mærke opføres i Marokko.

Hvis vi tager arealet på en af verdens største solcelle-parker, nemlig Bhadla Solar Park i Indien, så får Mærsk brug for produktionen af strøm fra 22 parker af Bhadla’s størrelse. Bhadla Solar Park dækker et areal på 5700 hektar.

Hvis hele den internationale skibsfart skal sejle på grøn metanol, skal der produceres strøm svarende til knap 740 solcelleparker af Bhadla’s størrelse.

Forsyning fra havvindmøller

Hvis hele den internationale skibsfart skal sejle på grøn metanol, vil det kræve lige så meget strøm, som omtrent 3290 havvindmølleparker kan producere. Denne beregning har som forudsætning, at havvindmølleparken har samme størrelse og ydeevne som Horns Rev3 i Nordsøen. Vi har valgt at bruge Horns Rev3 i Nordsøen, fordi det er en af verdens mest effektive vindmølleparker.

Grøn metanol fra biobrændstoffer

Hidtil har grønne brændstoffer primært være produceret på planter som majs, sojabønner og raps. Det kaldes for første generation biobrændstof. Mærsk fravælger at bruge den type brændstof. Hvis hele den internationale skibsfart skulle sejle på første generation biobrændstof fremstillet på sojabønner, skulle man hvert år høste et areal på størrelse med mere end halvdelen af Amazonas.

Det er også muligt at bruge restprodukter som sojahalm til at lave biobrændstof. Det betegnes som anden generation biobrændstof.

Hvis hele Mærsk’ flåde skulle sejle på anden generations biobrændstof fremstillet på sojahalm, skulle man hvert år høste fra et areal svarende til mere end det dobbelte af Danmarks areal. Hvis hele verdens flåde skulle sejle på denne type biobrændstof, skulle man høste på et areal svarende til næsten 74 gange Danmarks areal.

Relateret video og artikler på DRs hjemmeside

Nu kommer Mærsks grønnere skibe sejlende

Søfarten omstiller sig i sneglefart

Video explainer: Så meget plads kræver fremtidens grønne skibe

Beregningerne

Calculations-of-Area-Use-for-Green-Fuels-for-Shipping-2 Download

Duration: February 2024

EML Team: Ida Græsted and Kenneth Karlsson

31st January 202413th August 2024

Partnership model for municipalities

How can local authorities mitigate resistance from citizens to new renewable energy plants and facilities? In a new report, a partnership model for municipalities is presented as a solution. The model is the result of a two-year project, The Future Green Energy and the Citizens, launched by the Danish Board of Technology and Deltager Danmark (Participation Denmark).

The model divides the process of developing partnerships into five phases. The centerpiece is to establish a local dialogue forum with representatives of all local stakeholders. When organized and tailored to the local community culture, a process of dialogue can ensure local ownership and legitimacy. Correspondingly, such a process has the merit of contributing to more informed and better decisions, efficient use of resources, and innovative solutions. Most importantly, it saves time because the stakeholders have opportunities to iron out misunderstandings and conflicts.

Citizen summits

The project took place in the municipalities of Kalundborg, Vordingborg, and Holbæk. The local citizens have been engaging in meetings such as “citizen summits”. We contributed as independent experts in energy planning. We have presented possible scenarios of the green transition of the local energy supply.

To give the participants a better sense of the implications, we have presented more detailed charts. One chart showed the land use needed to produce 1 million MWh by energy production facilities using respectively solar, wind, and biomass. Others explained the estimated increase in demand for electricity and the needed increase in production.

The title of the report means From Resistance to Tailwind

Fra Modstand til Medvind Download

Project: Fremtidens Grønne Energi og Borgerne (“Future Green Energy and the Citizens”)

Duration: 2022-2023

Client: The Danish Board of Technology

Budget: DKK 100,000

Contact person: Niels-Kristian Tjelle Holm

EML Team: Ida Græsted Jensen and Kenneth Karlsson

10th January 202413th August 2024

Speeding up Nordic Green Transition

We will be collaborating with Danish, Swedish, Norwegian, and Finnish partners on a major research project entitled SpeedLocal. The aim is to speeding up the Nordic green transition. Together we will develop guidance tools for addressing the “not in my backyard” complexities and the challenges of integrating energy planning on the national level with implementation on the local level.

The research project is a transdisciplinary initiative. It engages experts in stakeholder engagement, policy analysis, landscape analysis, participatory processes, and energy system modelling. The final guidance tools will also reflect the results from three case studies: the Norwegian municipality of Trondelag, the Swedish municipality of Skaraborg, and the Danish municipality of Bornholm.

Emphasis on local values

In these places, the local authorities are in the process of implementing national energy policies. EML will focus on adapting the TIMES-Nordic energy system model to work on municipality levels. Also, we will work on the case study of Bornholm. Working closely together with Bornholm municipality, we will identify the barriers to green transition and strategies to overcome them.

An important dimension of the project is the emphasis on the values of local nature and landscapes. An overarching aim is thus to find ways to integrate local insights and considerations into the broader national and Nordic energy planning analyses. By doing so, the legitimacy and policy relevance could improve.

Modelling

The TIMES-Nordic model will be adapted for local cases and integrate specific constraints

Analysis

The analysis of the results will be translated into a Strategy Kit that contains instructions and guidance.

Results

The Strategy Kit can be utilized to formulate evidence-based policy recommendations.

Project: SpeedLocal

Duration: 2024-2026

Client: Nordic Energy Research

Programme: Nordic Grand Solutions Programme

Total budget: NOK 25 mio.

Project owner: Energiforsk AB

Reference: Lise Nielson, senior advisor, Nordic Energy Research

Partners: IVL, Institute for Energy Technology, LabLab, Luleå University of Technology,

VTT, Technical University of Denmark, Bornholm municipality, Skaraborg municipality, Vara municipality, Trondelag municipality

EML team: Andrea Radoszynski, Ida Græsted Jensen and Till ben Brahim

Model: TIMES-Nordic

27th November 202313th August 2024

Agricultural and forestry sectors’ emissions

At present, the agricultural and forestry sectors’ emissions account for almost 20% of the total global emissions. Even so, these two sectors are largely neglected in the existing energy system modelling frameworks. There is simply no available data module to enable analyses. Meanwhile, we expect that our new research project will remedy this.

The research project is named Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use Sector Modeling in TIMES (AFOLU). The result should be a demo model of a new data module. The demo model will be standardized and flexible. Thus, it will enable energy system modellers to properly model factors such as the forest capacity of CO2 uptake. Other important factors could be the consequences of replacing crops for biofuel production or optimizing irrigation systems for instance.

Energy Modelling Lab will carry out the research project together with four partners: E4SMA, the Institute for Energy Technology (IFE), University College Cork (UCC), and VITO. We expect to finalize the new module in 2025. We are receiving funding from The Energy Technology Systems Analysis Program, IEA-ETSAP.

Transformative step

Our project builds on ongoing work by Energy Modelling Lab and E4SMA to develop a demo version of the AFOLU module. The primary objective is to consolidate knowledge from various partners and create a standardized, flexible AFOLU module that can seamlessly integrate with any TIMES model.

The new module will enable the ETSAP community to conduct a more integrated, holistic scenario analysis. It will be possible to consider the dynamic interactions between energy systems and the AFOLU sector. Moreover, we see it as a transformative step toward enabling energy system modellers to address climate change impacts and designate pathways to sustainable, net-zero economies.

Duration: 2023-2025

Client: The Energy Technology Systems Analysis Program, IEA-ETSAP

Budget: Euro 68,000

Reference: Kathleen Vaillancourt

Partners: E4SMA, the Institute for Energy Technology (IFE), University College Cork (UCC), and VITO

EML team: Kenneth Karlsson and Ida Græsted Jensen

Model: TIMES

21st September 202313th August 2024

Best locations of PtX plants

What could be the best locations for PtX plants in the Nordics? The answer to this question is one of the expected outcomes of the PtX Sector Coupling and LCA project. Energy Modelling Lab is collaborating with 13 partners. We are bringing our expertise in scenario analysis and advanced modelling to the project.

The PtX Sector Coupling and LCA project is part of the MissionGreenFuels partnership launched by the Danish Innovation Fund. The purpose of the project is twofold. The partners are working together on further developing existing energy systems and Life Cycle Assessment tools, methodologies, and models. The expected result is to create better ways to determine optimal ways of integrating PtX into the green transition.

Correspondingly, the partners are collaborating on using these models for assessments when it comes to defining the optimal locations of new PtX plants. This includes taking into consideration multiple factors such as grid capabilities, market forecasts, biomass, and carbon availability. Sector coupling and co-optimization of gas, electricity, hydrogen, and district heating are included as well. The models can generate different scenarios to be analyzed.

Our expertise

Energy Modelling Lab brings our expertise in using advanced mathematical models and modelling frameworks to the project, especially the use of the TIMES-NEU tool and model. Our assignment is to focus on describing sector coupling and potential synergies from the modelled scenarios. By analyzing the scenarios, we will clarify the optimal locations of PtX plants in Nordic countries in terms of cost-effectiveness.

Modelling

Developing and updating the TIMES-NEU model.

Scenario analyses

Analyze modelled scenarios to describe sector coupling and potential synergies.

Results

A portfolio of projects where cross-fertilization across the individual projects is a priority to secure knowledge sharing, learning, and development.

Mission and vision

The vision of the MissionGreenFuels partnership is to contribute substantially to the decarbonization of the transport, aviation, and shipping sectors and to support Danish research, innovation, growth, job creation, and export potential within the field of green fuels.

The MissionGreenFuels partnership is one of the four Innomissions launched by the Danish Innovation Fund. Innomission is funded by the Danish Innovation Fund by a 700 million DKK grant from the Danish government and funds from the NextGenerationEU program.

Duration: 2023-2024

Client: Danish Innovation Fund

Budget: DKK 180,000

Reference: Professor Marie Münster, Danish Technical University

Collaborators: DTU MAN, DTU Compute, Aalborg University PLAN, Southern Denmark University (SDU), Alexandra Institute, EA Energy Analysis, PlanEnergi, EMD Industry, Energinet, Danfoss, Grundfos, Vestas, CIP Fonden

EML team: Kenneth Karlsson

Model: TIMES-NEU

5th September 202313th August 2024

Analysis of future energy market

Mix of solar parks and wind parks to produce green hydrogen

Mix of green energy production from sun and wind used for producing hydrogen

Energy Modelling Lab has analyzed the future energy market in Northern Europe that will develop under the green transition. The analysis was an assignment from COWI. It has been used as a reference in the report Roadmap to a Future, Danish hydrogen infrastructure, published by the CIP Foundation in May 2023.

The analysis focuses on Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Germany, Poland, Holland, Belgium, and UK. It probes the potential future markets of energy and fuels including PtX fuels from now until 2050.

Based on data from the Danish Energy Agency, the Danish production of electricity is expected to increase by almost 900 % by 2050. The increase is primarily due to offshore wind parks. It’s assumed that the offshore wind parks will be established in connection with planned “energy islands”; two to three in the North Sea and one in the Baltic Sea. Also, there are plans to establish electrolysis facilities and we assume they will be established on the energy islands.

Domestic demand

Domestic electricity demand is expected to remain almost constant due to energy-saving measures. But the overall expected increase could be about sevenfold from now until 2050, due to the planned expansion of PtX facilities. The bulk of the potential electricity production would thus be used for the production of green hydrogen for export. Denmark could potentially produce one-third of the total green hydrogen produced in the area, that our analysis covers.

The demand for hydrogen in Northern Europe is estimated to grow dramatically. According to the prognosis in the analysis, Holland, Belgium, and Germany will be the main purchasers. The estimated value of the potential, Danish green hydrogen export is 100 billion DKK pr. year.

Germany or Sweden

The prognosis is based on the assumption, that Germany’s capacity for hydrogen production will remain rather limited. This assumption relies on calculations showing that Danish offshore wind parks will produce slightly cheaper electricity than German facilities. Meanwhile, the likelihood that Germany will establish a large-scale production remains high.

An alternative scenario not included in the published analysis showed that Sweden could become the main purchaser of Danish-produced hydrogen by 2050. This is mainly due to estimates showing that production costs in Sweden are higher than in Denmark.

Energy Modelling Labs has updated the TIMES energy system model for the analysis. We developed it further to cover Northern Europe which resulted in developing the TIMES-NEU. The TIMES model is internationally recognized and developed by an IEA working group.

MODELLING

Energy Modelling Lab has updated the Open Nordic TIMES model (ON-TIMES) and developed it further to the Northern Europe TIMES model (TIMES-NEU).

SCENARIO ANALYSIS

Energy Modelling Lab has probed on the future energy market that will develop under the Green Deal on climate neutrality by 2050.

RESULTS

Results and scenarios are collected in the report mentioned above.

Duration: 2022-2023

EML Team: Kenneth Karlsson, Ida Græsted Jensen and Andrea Marin Radoszynski

Client: COWI

Budget: DKK 450,00

Reference: Claus C. Rebien, Vice President, Cowi

Collaborators: Brinckmann

Model: TIMES-NEU

Report: Baggrundsnotat – Analyse af efterspørgsel efter PtX produkter

5th September 202313th August 2024

Local dialogue on green transition

The demand for green electricity is set to increase sharply in the coming decades. To meet the daily needs of the citizens as well as the industries, production capacity will have to rise accordingly. But which solutions are suitable and feasible on the municipal level? During 2023, Energy Modelling Lab is participating in a series of meetings to support local dialogue on green transition.

The meetings are organized by the Danish Board of Technology. Both citizens, representatives from the local industries, and decision-makers are participating. In many places, heads of the local industries and businesses are very keen on being at the forefront of the green transition. Also, experience shows that many citizens are knowledgeable and willing to engage. Dialogue can increase the support for the changes that the green transition entails.

Planning for PtX facility

During meetings in Vordingborg Municipality, we presented charts explaining the estimated increase in the demand for green electricity. Due to the planned installation of a PtX facility on the harbor, the demand is expected to rise by more than six times by 2050.

We showed that this demand could be met by a mix of new solar power facilities, wind farms, and other green energy sources. A number of on-shore and off-shore wind farms are currently being planned. If all of them are installed, they could meet even a 12-fold rise in demand. It is expected that access to green energy will attract new industrial facilities on the harbor.

In the Municipality of Kalundborg, we also presented charts explaining the land use needed to produce 1 million MWh by different kinds of green energy production facilities. The areas needed are presented in comparison to the total area of Kalundborg:

Chart explaining the land-use needed to produce 1 MWh by different kinds of green energy production facilities. The areas needed are presented in comparison to the total area of Kalundborg

We also showed the estimated energy generated, if solar panels were installed on the roofs of all buildings larger than 500 m2: It would amount to 200.000 MWh or enough to meet 20% of the estimated demand in 2030.

A common obstacle to the installation of solar power facilities and wind farms is the lack of support by local landowners and future neighbors. Insights into the actual land use needed can help set realistic goals when planning for future energy facilities.

Project: ”Fremtidens Grønne Energi og Borgerne” (“Future Green Energy and the Citizens”)

Duration: 2023

Client: The Danish Board of Technology

Budget: DKK 100,000

Reference: Niels-Kristian Tjelle Holm

EML Team: Ida Græsted Jensen and Kenneth Karlsson

16th August 202314th August 2024

Supporting the Council on Climate Change

Energy Modelling Lab is updating and handing over the Danish Bioresource Model

Energy Modelling Lab is supporting the Danish Council on Climate Change. We are updating and handing over the Danish Biomass Resource Model, DK-BioRes, that we developed a few years ago. DK-BioRes is a flow-based model and contains all Danish biomass resources from agriculture, forestry, and aquaculture. The updated model will feature several technologies for reducing carbon emissions and nitrification. As part of the project, we are building up the capacities of the staff at the Council so that they can use the model themselves.

With the DK-BioRes model at hand, The Danish Council on Climate Change can develop comprehensive scenarios of climate neutrality concerning land use, yield, and emissions from agriculture, aquaculture, and forestry. They can integrate the use of biomass and consumer behavior in the scenario. The project is thus enhancing the capacities of the Council to provide suggestions for cost-effective climate policy solutions.

The model is available on GitHub

MODELLING

Energy Modelling Lab is updating the flow-based model DK-BioRES that we have developed. The model features all Danish biomass resources from agriculture, forestry, and aquaculture.

The model can generate scenarios of the impact of different strategies and of increasing the use of technologies such as manure acidification and air cleaning to reduce carbon emissions.

CAPACITY BUILDING

Energy Modelling Lab trains the staff of the Danish Climate Council on updating and using the model to develop scenarios. We also include training on quality assurance of the scenarios.

By the end of the project, we are handing over the DK-BioRES Model to the Danish Climate Council assuring full ownership by the staff.

Duration: May – November 2023

EML Team: Ida Græsted Jensen and Kenneth Karlsson

Client: The Danish Council on Climate Change

Budget: DKK 320.000

Reference: Bodil Harder

Model: The Danish Bioressource Model – (DK-BioRes)

16th August 202313th August 2024

Viet Nam to reach net-zero emissions

Energy Modelling Lab is updating and redesigning the energy systems model we tailored for Viet Nam, the TIMES-Vietnam model. We are developing the scenarios that will be used for the analyses in the Energy Outlook Report 2023.

Viet Nam is already making headways in planning for the energy sector and is heading to reach net-zero emissions in 2050. Viet Nam Energy Outlook Report 2021 examined possible pathways for the development of the energy sector, and it featured a trajectory to reach the net-zero target for the first time.

One major finding of the Outlook Report 2021 was that a sustainable energy system will enable self-sufficiency. Another was that wind and solar energy are cheaper long-term solutions than coal and gas. At present, coal is the leading source of power.

The TIMES-Vietnam model supports strategic energy planning as it enables decision-makers to identify the most cost-effective and feasible pathways to achieve a sustainable green transition.

MODELLING

The first step is to meet with our Vietnamese partners and agree on the questions to address, relevant analyses to undertake, and scenarios to design.

Energy Modelling Lab then redesigns and updates the TIMES-Vietnam model. We strengthen the representation of new decarbonization technologies and integrate relevant constraints.

SCENARIO ANALYSIS

The core scenarios focus on the realization of the net-zero target. They allow for a comprehensive investigation of optimal solutions. The results are then reflected in recommendations for policymaking.

The process fosters a wide consensus and understanding of Viet Nam’s energy challenges and opportunities in the mid-to long term.

REPORT

The Viet Nam Energy Outlook Report 2023 identifies the cost-optimized solutions that support Viet Nam’s energy system to become sustainable.

The Report allows for decision-makers to explore the system-wide implications of fulfilling targets by 2050. It also shows how Viet Nam can contribute to fulfilling the Paris Agreement on climate change.

Duration: March- December 2023

EML Team: Kenneth Karlsson, Ida Græsted Jensen &Till ben Brahim

Client: Danish Energy Agency

Total budget: DKK 572.288

Reference: Giada Venturini, Danish Energy Agency

Collaborators: Electricity and Renewable Energy Authority (EREA, Vietnam), Hanoi University of Science and Technology, and E4SMA

Model: TIMES-VNM

16th August 202313th August 2024

Net-zero emissions in Kuwait

Kuwait is becoming one of the hottest countries on the planet and faces profound social and ecological challenges from continued global warming and the transition from fossil fuels. The government has pledged to reach net-zero emissions in the oil and gas sector by 2050 and by 2060 for the whole country.

At present, oil accounts for 90 % of the national revenue and more than half of GDP, and renewable energy for less than 1 % of demand. Kuwait thus needs clever and comprehensive solutions. With abundant wind and solar resources, the potential is at hand.

Energy Modelling Lab supports steps to reach net-zero emissions in Kuwait by 2060. We are developing an energy systems model, the TIMES-KUWIAT, that allows us to identify the least-cost and most feasible green energy systems. Based on these results we can designate pathways to integrate the new solutions across five key sectors: Energy, Industry, Agriculture, land use, and Waste.

MODELLING

Energy Modelling Lab develops a database for energy and GHG emissions, builds consensus on ambitions, and shortlists decarbonization options.

We develop the TIMES-KUWAIT model featuring different scenarios including rapid expansion of the renewable fuel market and reduced exports.

SCENARIO ANALYSIS

Analyzing the different scenarios allows for informed decision-making on the optimal solutions integrated across sectors.

Socioeconomic and environmental impacts and co-benefits such as improved health are identified and considered.

RESULTS

Results are presented in a website format with open access and all key results are shared in Excel sheets.

Users can move between scenarios and study results like emissions and energy consumption by sector and costs.

Duration: August 2022 – June 2024

External experts from EML : Mikkel Bosack Simonsen and Ida Græsted Jensen

Client: UNEP

Total budget: USD 64.920

Reference: Sarah Carmen Fiedler, associate expert, UNEP

Collaborators: SDA Sustainable Development Advisors

Model: TIMES-Kuwait