Pernille, Author at Energy System Modelling & Planning | Energy Modelling Lab

21st September 202313th August 2024

Best locations of PtX plants

What could be the best locations for PtX plants in the Nordics? The answer to this question is one of the expected outcomes of the PtX Sector Coupling and LCA project. Energy Modelling Lab is collaborating with 13 partners. We are bringing our expertise in scenario analysis and advanced modelling to the project.

The PtX Sector Coupling and LCA project is part of the MissionGreenFuels partnership launched by the Danish Innovation Fund. The purpose of the project is twofold. The partners are working together on further developing existing energy systems and Life Cycle Assessment tools, methodologies, and models. The expected result is to create better ways to determine optimal ways of integrating PtX into the green transition.

Correspondingly, the partners are collaborating on using these models for assessments when it comes to defining the optimal locations of new PtX plants. This includes taking into consideration multiple factors such as grid capabilities, market forecasts, biomass, and carbon availability. Sector coupling and co-optimization of gas, electricity, hydrogen, and district heating are included as well. The models can generate different scenarios to be analyzed.

Our expertise

Energy Modelling Lab brings our expertise in using advanced mathematical models and modelling frameworks to the project, especially the use of the TIMES-NEU tool and model. Our assignment is to focus on describing sector coupling and potential synergies from the modelled scenarios. By analyzing the scenarios, we will clarify the optimal locations of PtX plants in Nordic countries in terms of cost-effectiveness.

Modelling

Developing and updating the TIMES-NEU model.

Scenario analyses

Analyze modelled scenarios to describe sector coupling and potential synergies.

Results

A portfolio of projects where cross-fertilization across the individual projects is a priority to secure knowledge sharing, learning, and development.

Mission and vision

The vision of the MissionGreenFuels partnership is to contribute substantially to the decarbonization of the transport, aviation, and shipping sectors and to support Danish research, innovation, growth, job creation, and export potential within the field of green fuels.

The MissionGreenFuels partnership is one of the four Innomissions launched by the Danish Innovation Fund. Innomission is funded by the Danish Innovation Fund by a 700 million DKK grant from the Danish government and funds from the NextGenerationEU program.

Duration: 2023-2024

Client: Danish Innovation Fund

Budget: DKK 180,000

Reference: Professor Marie Münster, Danish Technical University

Collaborators: DTU MAN, DTU Compute, Aalborg University PLAN, Southern Denmark University (SDU), Alexandra Institute, EA Energy Analysis, PlanEnergi, EMD Industry, Energinet, Danfoss, Grundfos, Vestas, CIP Fonden

EML team: Kenneth Karlsson

Model: TIMES-NEU

5th September 202313th August 2024

Analysis of future energy market

Mix of solar parks and wind parks to produce green hydrogen

Mix of green energy production from sun and wind used for producing hydrogen

Energy Modelling Lab has analyzed the future energy market in Northern Europe that will develop under the green transition. The analysis was an assignment from COWI. It has been used as a reference in the report Roadmap to a Future, Danish hydrogen infrastructure, published by the CIP Foundation in May 2023.

The analysis focuses on Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Germany, Poland, Holland, Belgium, and UK. It probes the potential future markets of energy and fuels including PtX fuels from now until 2050.

Based on data from the Danish Energy Agency, the Danish production of electricity is expected to increase by almost 900 % by 2050. The increase is primarily due to offshore wind parks. It’s assumed that the offshore wind parks will be established in connection with planned “energy islands”; two to three in the North Sea and one in the Baltic Sea. Also, there are plans to establish electrolysis facilities and we assume they will be established on the energy islands.

Domestic demand

Domestic electricity demand is expected to remain almost constant due to energy-saving measures. But the overall expected increase could be about sevenfold from now until 2050, due to the planned expansion of PtX facilities. The bulk of the potential electricity production would thus be used for the production of green hydrogen for export. Denmark could potentially produce one-third of the total green hydrogen produced in the area, that our analysis covers.

The demand for hydrogen in Northern Europe is estimated to grow dramatically. According to the prognosis in the analysis, Holland, Belgium, and Germany will be the main purchasers. The estimated value of the potential, Danish green hydrogen export is 100 billion DKK pr. year.

Germany or Sweden

The prognosis is based on the assumption, that Germany’s capacity for hydrogen production will remain rather limited. This assumption relies on calculations showing that Danish offshore wind parks will produce slightly cheaper electricity than German facilities. Meanwhile, the likelihood that Germany will establish a large-scale production remains high.

An alternative scenario not included in the published analysis showed that Sweden could become the main purchaser of Danish-produced hydrogen by 2050. This is mainly due to estimates showing that production costs in Sweden are higher than in Denmark.

Energy Modelling Labs has updated the TIMES energy system model for the analysis. We developed it further to cover Northern Europe which resulted in developing the TIMES-NEU. The TIMES model is internationally recognized and developed by an IEA working group.

MODELLING

Energy Modelling Lab has updated the Open Nordic TIMES model (ON-TIMES) and developed it further to the Northern Europe TIMES model (TIMES-NEU).

SCENARIO ANALYSIS

Energy Modelling Lab has probed on the future energy market that will develop under the Green Deal on climate neutrality by 2050.

RESULTS

Results and scenarios are collected in the report mentioned above.

Duration: 2022-2023

EML Team: Kenneth Karlsson, Ida Græsted Jensen and Andrea Marin Radoszynski

Client: COWI

Budget: DKK 450,00

Reference: Claus C. Rebien, Vice President, Cowi

Collaborators: Brinckmann

Model: TIMES-NEU

Report: Baggrundsnotat – Analyse af efterspørgsel efter PtX produkter

5th September 202313th August 2024

Local dialogue on green transition

The demand for green electricity is set to increase sharply in the coming decades. To meet the daily needs of the citizens as well as the industries, production capacity will have to rise accordingly. But which solutions are suitable and feasible on the municipal level? During 2023, Energy Modelling Lab is participating in a series of meetings to support local dialogue on green transition.

The meetings are organized by the Danish Board of Technology. Both citizens, representatives from the local industries, and decision-makers are participating. In many places, heads of the local industries and businesses are very keen on being at the forefront of the green transition. Also, experience shows that many citizens are knowledgeable and willing to engage. Dialogue can increase the support for the changes that the green transition entails.

Planning for PtX facility

During meetings in Vordingborg Municipality, we presented charts explaining the estimated increase in the demand for green electricity. Due to the planned installation of a PtX facility on the harbor, the demand is expected to rise by more than six times by 2050.

We showed that this demand could be met by a mix of new solar power facilities, wind farms, and other green energy sources. A number of on-shore and off-shore wind farms are currently being planned. If all of them are installed, they could meet even a 12-fold rise in demand. It is expected that access to green energy will attract new industrial facilities on the harbor.

In the Municipality of Kalundborg, we also presented charts explaining the land use needed to produce 1 million MWh by different kinds of green energy production facilities. The areas needed are presented in comparison to the total area of Kalundborg:

Chart explaining the land-use needed to produce 1 MWh by different kinds of green energy production facilities. The areas needed are presented in comparison to the total area of Kalundborg

We also showed the estimated energy generated, if solar panels were installed on the roofs of all buildings larger than 500 m2: It would amount to 200.000 MWh or enough to meet 20% of the estimated demand in 2030.

A common obstacle to the installation of solar power facilities and wind farms is the lack of support by local landowners and future neighbors. Insights into the actual land use needed can help set realistic goals when planning for future energy facilities.

Project: ”Fremtidens Grønne Energi og Borgerne” (“Future Green Energy and the Citizens”)

Duration: 2023

Client: The Danish Board of Technology

Budget: DKK 100,000

Reference: Niels-Kristian Tjelle Holm

EML Team: Ida Græsted Jensen and Kenneth Karlsson

5th September 202313th August 2024

Fremtidens grønne energi i Vordingborg

Udsigt over Vordingborg, hvor Energy Modelling Lab har afholdt dialog med borgerne om fremtidens grønne energiforsyning

Udsigt over Vordingborg, hvor Energy Modelling Lab har afholdt grøn dialog om fremtidens energiforsyning

I Vordingborg forventes efterspørgslen på grøn strøm at stige i de kommende år. Det drejer sig dels om grøn strøm til at dække det almindelige forbrug til husholdninger, transport og erhverv, dels til det planlagte PtX-anlæg på erhvervshavnen. Hvor skal strømmen komme fra? Energy Modelling Lab har deltaget i et borgermøde om fremtidens grønne energi i Vordingborg, organiseret af Teknologirådet.

Hvad det almindelige forbrug angår, kan efterspørgslen gå hen og stige med 45% frem til 2050. For PtX-anlæggets vedkommende, så drejer det sig om mere end en seks-dobling frem til 2050. På to møder har vi præsenteret forskellige muligheder for at producere tilstrækkelig med grøn strøm.

Det har givet de fremmødte Vordingborg-borgere et godt grundlag for en dialog om grøn energi. En række fremtrædende, lokale erhvervsledere er på forkant med den grønne omstilling, og mange borgere er både engageret og vidende. Erfaringen viser, at dialog kan bane vejen for øget opbakning til de forandringer, omstillingen til grøn energi indebærer.

Vordingborg Kommunes Klima- og teknikudvalg forventer at vedtage en strategiske energiplan i løbet af efteråret 2023.

Sol og vind

Beregninger viser, at de allerede planlagte solcelle- og landvindsanlæg i Kommunen kan dække efterspørgslen til det almindelige forbrug til husholdninger, transport og erhverv. Det er også muligt at forsyne PtX-anlægget med energi fra havvind, som man kan se på nedenstående diagrammer. Der er indsendt en række ansøgninger til Energistyrelsen om at opføre havvind-projekter i områder omkring Vordingborg Kommune. Hvis anlæggene bliver opført, kan de forsyne PtX-anlægget.

Grøn energi dialog med borgerne i Vordingborg Kommune. Beregninger viser, at der kan produceres grøn strøm nok til både almindeligt forbrug og det nye PtX anlæg.

PtX-anlægget på erhvervshavnen på Masnedø skal producere CO2 neutralt brændstof til luftfarten. Det bliver opført af virksomheden Arcadia eFuels.

Projekt: ”Fremtidens Grønne Energi og Borgerne”

Tidsperiode: 2023

EML-Team: Ida Græsted Jensen and Kenneth Karlsson

Klient: Teknologirådet

Budget: DKK 100,000

Reference: Niels-Kristian Tjelle Holm

5th September 202313th August 2024

Grøn dialog i Kalundborg

Energy Modelling Lab har deltaget i en grøn energi dialog med borgerne i Kalundborg Kommune. Efterspørgslen på grøn strøm forventes at blive flerdoblet frem til 2050. Men hvor skal den komme fra?

Energy Modelling Lab har deltaget i en grøn energi dialog med borgerne i Kalundborg Kommune. Efterspørgslen på grøn strøm vil flerdobles, men hvor skal den komme fra?

I Kalundborg Kommune forventes forbruget af grøn strøm at stige voldsomt i de kommende år. Der kan blive tale om mere end en fordobling frem til 2050. Hvor skal strømmen så komme fra? Energy Modelling Lab har deltaget i en grøn dialog i Kalundborg I Vordingborg forventes efterspørgslen på grøn strøm at stige i de kommende år. Det drejer sig dels om grøn strøm til at dække det almindelige forbrug til husholdninger, transport og erhverv, dels til det planlagte PtX-anlæg på erhvervshavnen. Hvor skal strømmen komme fra? Energy Modelling Lab har deltaget i en grøn dialog i Vordingborg på et borgermøde, organiseret af Teknologirådet.

Forbrug af arealer

Det er især de store industrivirksomheder, der får brug for store mængder grøn strøm. Det gælder blandt andre Gyproc, Novo Nordisk, Novozymes og Kalundborg Refinery. Der er mange spørgsmål at tage stilling til. Et af dem er, om Kalundborg Kommune skal gå efter at blive selvforsynende med grøn strøm eller satse på at få strøm udefra.

Et vigtigt grundvilkår er hvilke arealer, der kan benyttes. Grøn energiproduktion kræver forholdsvis store arealer. Energy Modelling Lab har udarbejdet et eksempel på, hvordan der kan produceres 1 million MWh om året i Kommunen. Kalundborg får muligvis brug for omkring 1,5 million MWh eller mere i 2050.

Vi præsenterede eksemplet på et borgermøde arrangeret af Teknologirådet. Vi viste blandt andet hvor mange hektar, de forskellige teknologier skal bruge for at producere 1 million MWh om året:

Diagram der viser arealforbruget til at producere grøn strøm med hhv. sol, havvind, landvind, træ, halm til energi og halm til biogas.

I eksemplet mixer vi, så 35 % af strømmen kommer fra havvind, 35 % fra landvind, 20 procent fra sol og de resterende 10 % fra træ og biogas. Der bliver der anvendt 9000 hektar i alt, heraf 1300 hektar til havvindmøller. Eksemplet indebærer, at der er produktion af grøn energi på omtrent 13 procent af Kalundborg Kommunes areal.

Præsentationen gav de fremmødte Kalundborg-borgere et godt grundlag for en dialog om grøn energi. En række fremtrædende, lokale erhvervsledere er på forkant med den grønne omstilling, og mange borgere er både engageret og vidende. Erfaringen viser, at dialog kan bane vejen for øget opbakning til de forandringer, omstillingen til grøn energi indebærer.

Projekt: ”Fremtidens Grønne Energi og Borgerne”

Tidsperiode: 2023

EML-Team: Ida Græsted Jensen and Kenneth Karlsson

Klient: Teknologirådet

Budget: DKK 100,000

Reference: Niels-Kristian Tjelle Holm

22nd August 202313th August 2024

Teaching energy system modelling

What would be the impact on carbon emissions if a country replaced 50% of coal-based energy production with solar solutions? Or increase wind energy production to meet growing demand instead of increasing gas-based energy production? We can obtain the answers to such questions by running simulations or creating scenarios in advanced mathematical models.

For several years now, Ida Græsted Jensen, PhD, and partner in Energy Modelling Lab, has been teaching how to understand and use energy system modelling. One of the courses is organized by DANIDA Fellowship Centre. It is focusing on the Balmorel Model and is taking place at the Technical University of Denmark.

The participants learn to construct a Balmorel Model tailored to their own country. The purpose is to find the optimal future investments in energy systems. They will be able to understand large-scale energy system analyses and analyze energy systems. Additionally, critical thinking on results, use, and key assumptions plays an important part in the course.

The course targets professionals, who are either new to modelling in Balmorel or need to refresh their skills. Participants must have basic knowledge of energy systems.

Date: August 2023

EML Team: Ida Græsted Jensen

Client: DANIDA Fellowship Centre

Reference: Professor Marie Münster, Danish Technical University

Collaborators: Technical University of Denmark, Ea Energy Analyses, and RAM-lose

Model: Balmorel

16th August 202314th August 2024

Supporting the Council on Climate Change

Energy Modelling Lab is updating and handing over the Danish Bioresource Model

Energy Modelling Lab is supporting the Danish Council on Climate Change. We are updating and handing over the Danish Biomass Resource Model, DK-BioRes, that we developed a few years ago. DK-BioRes is a flow-based model and contains all Danish biomass resources from agriculture, forestry, and aquaculture. The updated model will feature several technologies for reducing carbon emissions and nitrification. As part of the project, we are building up the capacities of the staff at the Council so that they can use the model themselves.

With the DK-BioRes model at hand, The Danish Council on Climate Change can develop comprehensive scenarios of climate neutrality concerning land use, yield, and emissions from agriculture, aquaculture, and forestry. They can integrate the use of biomass and consumer behavior in the scenario. The project is thus enhancing the capacities of the Council to provide suggestions for cost-effective climate policy solutions.

The model is available on GitHub

MODELLING

Energy Modelling Lab is updating the flow-based model DK-BioRES that we have developed. The model features all Danish biomass resources from agriculture, forestry, and aquaculture.

The model can generate scenarios of the impact of different strategies and of increasing the use of technologies such as manure acidification and air cleaning to reduce carbon emissions.

CAPACITY BUILDING

Energy Modelling Lab trains the staff of the Danish Climate Council on updating and using the model to develop scenarios. We also include training on quality assurance of the scenarios.

By the end of the project, we are handing over the DK-BioRES Model to the Danish Climate Council assuring full ownership by the staff.

Duration: May – November 2023

EML Team: Ida Græsted Jensen and Kenneth Karlsson

Client: The Danish Council on Climate Change

Budget: DKK 320.000

Reference: Bodil Harder

Model: The Danish Bioressource Model – (DK-BioRes)

16th August 202313th August 2024

Viet Nam to reach net-zero emissions

Energy Modelling Lab is updating and redesigning the energy systems model we tailored for Viet Nam, the TIMES-Vietnam model. We are developing the scenarios that will be used for the analyses in the Energy Outlook Report 2023.

Viet Nam is already making headways in planning for the energy sector and is heading to reach net-zero emissions in 2050. Viet Nam Energy Outlook Report 2021 examined possible pathways for the development of the energy sector, and it featured a trajectory to reach the net-zero target for the first time.

One major finding of the Outlook Report 2021 was that a sustainable energy system will enable self-sufficiency. Another was that wind and solar energy are cheaper long-term solutions than coal and gas. At present, coal is the leading source of power.

The TIMES-Vietnam model supports strategic energy planning as it enables decision-makers to identify the most cost-effective and feasible pathways to achieve a sustainable green transition.

MODELLING

The first step is to meet with our Vietnamese partners and agree on the questions to address, relevant analyses to undertake, and scenarios to design.

Energy Modelling Lab then redesigns and updates the TIMES-Vietnam model. We strengthen the representation of new decarbonization technologies and integrate relevant constraints.

SCENARIO ANALYSIS

The core scenarios focus on the realization of the net-zero target. They allow for a comprehensive investigation of optimal solutions. The results are then reflected in recommendations for policymaking.

The process fosters a wide consensus and understanding of Viet Nam’s energy challenges and opportunities in the mid-to long term.

REPORT

The Viet Nam Energy Outlook Report 2023 identifies the cost-optimized solutions that support Viet Nam’s energy system to become sustainable.

The Report allows for decision-makers to explore the system-wide implications of fulfilling targets by 2050. It also shows how Viet Nam can contribute to fulfilling the Paris Agreement on climate change.

Duration: March- December 2023

EML Team: Kenneth Karlsson, Ida Græsted Jensen &Till ben Brahim

Client: Danish Energy Agency

Total budget: DKK 572.288

Reference: Giada Venturini, Danish Energy Agency

Collaborators: Electricity and Renewable Energy Authority (EREA, Vietnam), Hanoi University of Science and Technology, and E4SMA

Model: TIMES-VNM

16th August 202313th August 2024

Enhancing energy planning in Viet Nam

Viet Nam is a regional manufactural hub and one of the most dynamic countries in East Asia, with the GDP annual growth rate averaging 6.2 percent from 2000 until 2023. According to the analysis in the Viet Nam Energy Outlook Report 2021, electricity consumption will more than double in 2050 compared to 2020.

Viet Nam has pledged to reach the target of net-zero emissions by 2050. This means the power system must meet more than 70 percent of the total final energy demand with renewable energy-based electricity.

Energy Modelling Lab supports the endeavors to enhance energy planning in Viet Nam. We assist the Vietnamese authorities by building up their planning capacities concerning scenario-based, long-term modelling of the Vietnamese energy system. To this end, we are integrating an updated technology catalog in the present energy system model. We have included electricity storage solutions, P2X, nuclear technologies, optimal use of biomass, and carbon capture and storage in the catalog.

MODELLING

Energy Modelling Lab updates the technology catalog that is integrated into the present energy system model.

The catalog includes decarbonization technologies that are not yet being used and describes costs and relevant technical parameters.

ANALYSIS

The catalog contributes to fostering data-driven discussions and understanding of the potential of decarbonization technologies.

The expected outcome of this process is a broader consensus on the potential.

RESULTS

The results will be integrated into the existing energy system model and can create first insights into cost-optimal applications of these technologies.

The results will contribute to making the Viet Nam Energy Outlook Report 2023 more comprehensive and enable decision-making on investments.

Duration: November 2022 – August 2023

EML Team: Kenneth Karlsson, Ida Græsted Jensen &Till ben Brahim

Client: UNOPS

Budget: DKK 93.438

Reference: Maurizio Gargiulo, Director of E4SMA

Collaborators: Electricity and Renewable Energy Authority (EREA, Vietnam), Danish Energy Agency (DEA) and E4SMA

Model: TIMES-VNM

16th August 202313th August 2024

Net-zero emissions in Kuwait

Kuwait is becoming one of the hottest countries on the planet and faces profound social and ecological challenges from continued global warming and the transition from fossil fuels. The government has pledged to reach net-zero emissions in the oil and gas sector by 2050 and by 2060 for the whole country.

At present, oil accounts for 90 % of the national revenue and more than half of GDP, and renewable energy for less than 1 % of demand. Kuwait thus needs clever and comprehensive solutions. With abundant wind and solar resources, the potential is at hand.

Energy Modelling Lab supports steps to reach net-zero emissions in Kuwait by 2060. We are developing an energy systems model, the TIMES-KUWIAT, that allows us to identify the least-cost and most feasible green energy systems. Based on these results we can designate pathways to integrate the new solutions across five key sectors: Energy, Industry, Agriculture, land use, and Waste.

MODELLING

Energy Modelling Lab develops a database for energy and GHG emissions, builds consensus on ambitions, and shortlists decarbonization options.

We develop the TIMES-KUWAIT model featuring different scenarios including rapid expansion of the renewable fuel market and reduced exports.

SCENARIO ANALYSIS

Analyzing the different scenarios allows for informed decision-making on the optimal solutions integrated across sectors.

Socioeconomic and environmental impacts and co-benefits such as improved health are identified and considered.

RESULTS

Results are presented in a website format with open access and all key results are shared in Excel sheets.

Users can move between scenarios and study results like emissions and energy consumption by sector and costs.

Duration: August 2022 – June 2024

External experts from EML : Mikkel Bosack Simonsen and Ida Græsted Jensen

Client: UNEP

Total budget: USD 64.920

Reference: Sarah Carmen Fiedler, associate expert, UNEP

Collaborators: SDA Sustainable Development Advisors

Model: TIMES-Kuwait