We were assigned by the Danish company Hybrid Greentech to develop a long term forecast of ancillary services costs in Sweden, spanning to 2050. The electrification drive is leading to a surge in power demand, and a fundamental reconfiguration of the energy infrastructure is taking place, one that must incorporate intermittent renewables, flexible electricity demand and the provision of ancillary services.
Ancillary services have often been the unsung heroes of the power sector, as these essential support systems ensure grid reliability. To make the forecast, we integrated and updated previous investigations into power production and demand.
We took into consideration the production of green hydrogen in the Nordics. The flexibility of hydrogen production could be an important factor in the ancillary services market, since a reduction of this production would most likely result in wider use of battery technologies. The increasing number of electric vehicles could also have a high impact on the market: if managed flexibly, this could potentially contain a total battery capacity of 250 GWh with a charging capacity of 50 GW, enough to support all the balancing requirements in all of Sweden if the potential is fully utilised.
A long term forecast of electricity production, consumption and prices in Sweden was part of the analysis. Sweden is expected to be a net exporter of electricity from 2020 to 2030, and a net importer from 2035 onwards. Consumption from industry is expected to increase by about 80% from 2020 to 2050, while the present price difference between the two Northern and two Southern regions is expected to decrease over time.
A qualitative assessment of ancillary services markets in the TIMES models, and analysis of future power demand, demand side flexibility and renewable intermittent technology development based on the integrated TIMES-NEU model, covering the entire Northern European energy system.
Close collaboration with Hybrid Greentech throughout the engagement, refining the forecast and modelling assumptions as new data and questions emerged.
All results and calculations were presented in a comprehensive report to Hybrid Greentech, assessing the future costs and market development of ancillary services in Sweden.
Client: Hybrid Greentech
Reference: Anton Osadchi
EML team: Mikkel Bosack Simonsen, Julius Lindberg Steensberg, Kenneth Karlsson and Ida Græsted Jensen
Budget: Not stated on the existing page
Duration: September 2023
Model: TIMES-NEU and TIMES-DK