Category: Frontpage projects

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Local dialogue on green transition

Energy Modelling Lab is supporting an informed local dialogue on green transition, presenting charts on future demand, feasibility of new solar panel facilities and wind farms and suggestions of how to meet the increase demand.
Energy Modelling Lab is supporting an informed local dialogue on green transition, presenting charts on future demand, feasibility of new solar panel facilities and wind farms and suggestions of how to meet the increase demand.

The demand for green electricity is set to increase sharply in the coming decades. To meet the daily needs of the citizens as well as the industries, production capacity will have to rise accordingly. But which solutions are suitable and feasible on the municipal level? During 2023, Energy Modelling Lab is participating in a series of meetings to support local dialogue on green transition.

The meetings are organized by the Danish Board of Technology. Both citizens, representatives from the local industries, and decision-makers are participating. In many places, heads of the local industries and businesses are very keen on being at the forefront of the green transition. Also, experience shows that many citizens are knowledgeable and willing to engage. Dialogue can increase the support for the changes that the green transition entails.

Planning for PtX facility

During meetings in Vordingborg Municipality, we presented charts explaining the estimated increase in the demand for green electricity. Due to the planned installation of a PtX facility on the harbor, the demand is expected to rise by more than six times by 2050.

We showed that this demand could be met by a mix of new solar power facilities, wind farms, and other green energy sources. A number of on-shore and off-shore wind farms are currently being planned. If all of them are installed, they could meet even a 12-fold rise in demand. It is expected that access to green energy will attract new industrial facilities on the harbor.

In the Municipality of Kalundborg, we also presented charts explaining the land use needed to produce 1 million MWh by different kinds of green energy production facilities. The areas needed are presented in comparison to the total area of Kalundborg:

Chart explaining the land-use needed to produce 1 MWh by different kinds of green energy production facilities. The areas needed are presented in comparison to the total area of Kalundborg

We also showed the estimated energy generated, if solar panels were installed on the roofs of all buildings larger than 500 m2: It would amount to 200.000 MWh or enough to meet 20% of the estimated demand in 2030.

A common obstacle to the installation of solar power facilities and wind farms is the lack of support by local landowners and future neighbors. Insights into the actual land use needed can help set realistic goals when planning for future energy facilities.

Project: ”Fremtidens Grønne Energi og Borgerne” (“Future Green Energy and the Citizens”)

Duration: 2023

Client: The Danish Board of Technology

Budget: DKK 100,000

Reference: Niels-Kristian Tjelle Holm

EML Team: Ida Græsted Jensen and Kenneth Karlsson

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Supporting the Council on Climate Change

Energy Modelling Lab is updating and handing over the Danish Bioresource Model

Energy Modelling Lab is supporting the Danish Council on Climate Change. We are updating and handing over the Danish Biomass Resource Model, DK-BioRes, that we developed a few years ago. DK-BioRes is a flow-based model and contains all Danish biomass resources from agriculture, forestry, and aquaculture. The updated model will feature several technologies for reducing carbon emissions and nitrification. As part of the project, we are building up the capacities of the staff at the Council so that they can use the model themselves.

With the DK-BioRes model at hand, The Danish Council on Climate Change can develop comprehensive scenarios of climate neutrality concerning land use, yield, and emissions from agriculture, aquaculture, and forestry. They can integrate the use of biomass and consumer behavior in the scenario. The project is thus enhancing the capacities of the Council to provide suggestions for cost-effective climate policy solutions.

The model is available on GitHub

Building DK-BioRes

MODELLING

Energy Modelling Lab is updating the flow-based model DK-BioRES that we have developed. The model features all Danish biomass resources from agriculture, forestry, and aquaculture.

The model can generate scenarios of the impact of different strategies and of increasing the use of technologies such as manure acidification and air cleaning to reduce carbon emissions.

CAPACITY BUILDING

Energy Modelling Lab trains the staff of the Danish Climate Council on updating and using the model to develop scenarios. We also include training on quality assurance of the scenarios.

By the end of the project, we are handing over the DK-BioRES Model to the Danish Climate Council assuring full ownership by the staff.

Duration: May – November 2023

EML Team: Ida Græsted Jensen and Kenneth Karlsson

Client: The Danish Council on Climate Change

Budget: DKK 320.000

Reference: Bodil Harder

Model: The Danish Bioressource Model – (DK-BioRes)

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Viet Nam to reach net-zero emissions

Energy Modelling Lab is updating and redesigning the energy systems model we tailored for Viet Nam, the TIMES-Vietnam model. We are developing the scenarios that will be used for the analyses in the Energy Outlook Report 2023.

Viet Nam is already making headways in planning for the energy sector and is heading to reach net-zero emissions in 2050. Viet Nam Energy Outlook Report 2021  examined possible pathways for the development of the energy sector, and it featured a trajectory to reach the net-zero target for the first time.

One major finding of the Outlook Report 2021 was that a sustainable energy system will enable self-sufficiency. Another was that wind and solar energy are cheaper long-term solutions than coal and gas. At present, coal is the leading source of power.

The TIMES-Vietnam model supports strategic energy planning as it enables decision-makers to identify the most cost-effective and feasible pathways to achieve a sustainable green transition.

Building DK-BioRes

MODELLING

The first step is to meet with our Vietnamese partners and agree on the questions to address, relevant analyses to undertake, and scenarios to design.

Energy Modelling Lab then redesigns and updates the TIMES-Vietnam model. We strengthen the representation of new decarbonization technologies and integrate relevant constraints.

SCENARIO ANALYSIS

The core scenarios focus on the realization of the net-zero target. They allow for a comprehensive investigation of optimal solutions. The results are then reflected in recommendations for policymaking.

The process fosters a wide consensus and understanding of Viet Nam’s energy challenges and opportunities in the mid-to long term.

REPORT

The Viet Nam Energy Outlook Report 2023 identifies the cost-optimized solutions that support Viet Nam’s energy system to become sustainable.

The Report allows for decision-makers to explore the system-wide implications of fulfilling targets by 2050. It also shows how Viet Nam can contribute to fulfilling the Paris Agreement on climate change.

Duration: March- December 2023

EML Team: Kenneth Karlsson, Ida Græsted Jensen &Till ben Brahim

Client: Danish Energy Agency 

Total budget: DKK 572.288

Reference: Giada Venturini, Danish Energy Agency

Collaborators: Electricity and Renewable Energy Authority (EREA, Vietnam), Hanoi University of Science and Technology, and E4SMA

Model: TIMES-VNM

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Net-zero emissions in Kuwait

Kuwait City skyline
Energy Modelling Lab helps reaching net-zero emissions in Kuwait

Kuwait is becoming one of the hottest countries on the planet and faces profound social and ecological challenges from continued global warming and the transition from fossil fuels. The government has pledged to reach net-zero emissions in the oil and gas sector by 2050 and by 2060 for the whole country.

At present, oil accounts for 90 % of the national revenue and more than half of GDP, and renewable energy for less than 1 % of demand. Kuwait thus needs clever and comprehensive solutions. With abundant wind and solar resources, the potential is at hand.

Energy Modelling Lab supports steps to reach net-zero emissions in Kuwait by 2060. We are developing an energy systems model, the TIMES-KUWIAT, that allows us to identify the least-cost and most feasible green energy systems. Based on these results we can designate pathways to integrate the new solutions across five key sectors: Energy, Industry, Agriculture, land use, and Waste.

Building DK-BioRes

MODELLING

Energy Modelling Lab develops a database for energy and GHG emissions, builds consensus on ambitions, and shortlists decarbonization options.

We develop the TIMES-KUWAIT model featuring different scenarios including rapid expansion of the renewable fuel market and reduced exports.

SCENARIO ANALYSIS

Analyzing the different scenarios allows for informed decision-making on the optimal solutions integrated across sectors.

Socioeconomic and environmental impacts and co-benefits such as improved health are identified and considered.

RESULTS

Results are presented in a website format with open access and all key results are shared in Excel sheets.

Users can move between scenarios and study results like emissions and energy consumption by sector and costs.

Duration: August 2022 – June 2024

External experts from EML : Mikkel Bosack Simonsen and Ida Græsted Jensen

Client: UNEP

Total budget: USD 64.920

Reference: Sarah Carmen Fiedler, associate expert, UNEP

Collaborators: SDA Sustainable Development Advisors

Model: TIMES-Kuwait

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Low emission strategy in Jordan

Solar energy in Jordan. Energy Modelling Lab is assisting to develop a low emission strategy for Jordan.

Jordan is considered to be among the world’s most vulnerable to drought as a result of climate change. Major challenges are aridity, water scarcity, heavy reliance on fossil energy imports, rapid population growth, and urbanization.

The government is now addressing the need to transition to a greener and more resilient economy. One important step is developing a National Long-Term Low Emission Strategy and Options Report 2050.

Energy Modelling Lab is contributing to developing a low-emission strategy in Jordan. We are creating a tailored energy systems model, the TIMES-Jordan model. This modelling framework represents eight key sectors and their interconnections. By embedding baseline scenarios, we can estimate the impact of different options for decarbonization. We then create a shortlist of the least cost and most feasible options and designate the optimal pathways.

Building DK-BioRes

MODELLING
We have built a tailored energy systems model, the TIMES-Jordan, using the TIMES energy systems modelling framework developed under IEA.

The model includes a full investment catalog for the entire energy sector and shows the economically optimal pathways through the jungle of technological solutions.

SCENARIO ANALYSIS
Through a series of scenarios, we can investigate the consequences of different climate scenarios and consider prioritized mitigation actions.

We also identify and consider socioeconomic and environmental impacts and co-benefits such as improved health and energy savings.

REPORT
The final report proposes optimal decarbonization pathways and provides policy recommendations that are validated through workshops with key stakeholders.

The Jordanian Government will have a solid basis for a continuously informed decision process as we will build local partner capacity to use and update the model.

Duration: August 2022 – June 2024

EML Team: Kenneth Karlsson, Mikkel Bosack Simonsen, Ida Græsted Jensen 

Client: The World Bank

Budget: DKK 679,250

Reference: Karsten Holm, Danish Energy Management

Collaborators: Danish Energy Management (DEM) and the Water, Energy, and Environment Center (WEEC) of the University of Jordan

Model: TIMES-JO

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A mosaic of district heating sources

The climate agenda, new technologies, and geopolitical uncertainties all affect the energy system. District heating is a hot topic, and energy planners around the world are looking to Denmark for inspiration. In the future, our homes will be heated by a mosaic of district heating sources.

The mosaic will feature excess heat from data centers, Power-to-X, or Carbon Capture plants. The heat source can also be local sewage and waste from agriculture.

We help cities and district heating providers plan for the future of district heating.

Building DK-BioRes

MODELLING
We gather information about the current heating system and the local resources when we model a district heating area. Based on that we create a local optimization module within one of our national models.

SCENARIO ANALYSIS
In a collaboration between the client and the modelling team, we identify a series of potential paths to a sustainable district heating system.

A COLLECTION OF PATHS
The investment paths are gathered in a final report, which gives the client an overview of the different options.

Energy Modelling Lab Contact: Kenneth Karlsson

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Clean Nordic shipping

With a combined coastline of 43.000 km trading and traveling by sea is essential in the Nordic countries. At present, the maritime industry is facing a challenging green transition, diverting away from fossil fuels towards renewable energy sources. Probing the possibilities for clean Nordic shipping is more relevant than ever.

There are many possible paths to a sustainable Nordic shipping industry. Energy Modelling Lab is involved in the HOPE project, launched by Nordic Energy Research. The full name of the project is Hydrogen Fuel Cells Solutions in shipping in relation to other low-carbon options – a Nordic perspective.

HOPE analyses alternatives for CO2-neutral marine fuels and propulsion technologies from a Nordic point of view, by assessing the role of hydrogen and fuel cell solutions in relation to other low or zero-carbon fuel options.

SCENARIO ANALYSIS
Through a series of scenario studies, the Nordic energy model (ON-TIMES) is used to find the optimal paths to a fossil-free shipping industry.

TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT
The project has a special focus on hydrogen and fuel cells in relation to the other low-carbon options.

Duration: November 2021 – February 2023

EML team: Kenneth Karlsson, Andrea Marin Radoszynski & Alexandra O’Sullivan Freltoft

Partners: IVL – Svenska Miljöinstitutet

Client: Nordic Energy Research

Budget: DKK 148,000

Reference: Julie Hansson, Senior Project Manager

Model: The Open Nordic TIMES model (ON-TIMES) can be found open source in our GitHub repository.

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Nordic Clean Energy Scenarios

The project Nordic Clean Energy Scenarios aims at identifying technological solutions to a fully carbon-neutral Nordic region. It further aims at developing energy scenarios for the Nordic energy sector enabling the Nordic commitment to reach carbon neutrality.

Collaborating on finding the right solutions

NCES2020 brings together nine teams from four Nordic countries, with complementing modelling and analytical skills. Combined with the use of open-access energy system models and data, this strengthens Nordic cooperation and expertise in energy modelling.

The path to neutrality

If you are curious to know more about the results, you can find the five solution tracks here. You can also listen to the podcast, read the full report, or dive straight into the results data.

Building DK-BioRes

MODELLING
Energy Modelling Lab has developed an open-source energy model for the Nordic region (ON-TIMES).

The model covers Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Finland and Iceland.

SCENARIO ANALYSIS
The model is used to identify paths to a fully carbon-neutral Nordic region.

Find the scenario results here.

REPORT
The results are collected in the Nordic Clean Energy Scenarios report.

Duration: March 2020 – April 2021.

Project: Nordic Clean Energy Scenarios

EML Team: Kenneth Karlsson

Client: Nordic Energy Research

Budget: NOK 320.000

Reference: Kevin Johnsen, COO, Nordic Energy Research

Model: Open Nordic TIMES model (ON-TIMES)