Vinnytsia municipality has engaged in a project to develop a comprehensive district heating investment roadmap, innovating energy planning in Ukraine. As part of the project, the Energy Modelling Lab is building the TIMES-Vinnytsia energy systems model.
The model enables energy planners to identify the most cost-effective and sustainable solutions to modernize the district heating system. It covers the period 2025-2050. Subsequently, Vinnytsia’s energy planners can adopt a long-term strategic approach, allowing for informed decisions on priority investment projects.
Building the TIMES-Vinnytsia model entails mapping available local energy resources such as river water, wind, waste energy, geothermal, and solar. Furthermore, we will assess the feasibility of using these sources in the local district heating system. Likewise, we will analyze current assets to determine which ones should be replaced or retrofitted and identify opportunities for system expansion.
20-30 scenarios for modernizing the district heating system
We expect to develop and analyze 20-30 scenarios for modernizing the district heating system. The scenarios will show the impact of factors such as energy taxation policies, choice of energy resources, alignment with EU legislation (e.g., EU Taxonomy), the resilience of the energy system (technology combinations, storage solutions), the marginal cost of production, potential grid expansion, and energy efficiency investments in buildings.
The analysis of the scenarios will result in a roadmap for 2025-2050 outlining recommended investments, timing, and costs.
The TIMES-Vinnytsia will have a representation of the heat supply balance including storages and demands and showing centralized and individual options.
Vinnytsia first in Ukraine to announce the Green Deal
Vinnytsia has 370.000 inhabitants. It is located on the banks of the Southern Bug and is a prominent industrial city. Vinnytsia City Territorial Community was the first in Ukraine to announce the Green Deal following the example of the European Green Deal.
The district heating systems in Ukraine supply about 40 pct. of the residents during the heating season. The National Renewable Energy Action Plan (NREAP) has set ambitious targets to increase the share of renewable energy in heating and cooling from 20.8% to 32.5% by 2030.
MODELLING
Building the TIMES-Vinnytsia model. We use the TIMES energy systems modelling framework. It was developed as a methodology for energy scenarios to conduct in-depth energy and environmental analyses by ETSAP, a technology collaboration program under the IEA.
SCENARIO ANALYSIS
Generating and analyzing 20-30 scenarios of modernizing the Vinnytsia district heating system considering the impact on demand and production by factors such as energy taxation policies, choice of energy resources, alignment with EU taxonomy, and energy system resilience.
ROADMAP
Developing a Roadmap 2025-2050 detailing recommended priority investment projects, timeline, and costs. The Roadmap will support the energy planners of Vinnytsia Municipality in making informed choices and enable long-term strategic planning.
Client: IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute
Donor: Nordic Environment Finance Corporation (NEFCO)
EML Team: Ida Græsted Jensen, Till ben Brahim, and Andrea Radoszynski
Duration: January 2025 – August 2025