News Archives - Energy System Modelling & Planning

10th March 202521st March 2025

Recommendations for Investments in New Technologies

Photo of Arlington illustrating the TIMES-Arlington model that Brightcore can use to make recommendations for investments in new technologies.

The American company Brightcore Energy has assigned EML to build a tailored energy systems model, the TIMES-Arlington model. The company can use the model to make recommendations for investments in new technologies regarding renewing and optimizing energy supply.

The model represents a school’s heating and cooling systems and an adjacent neighborhood in Arlington, Massachusetts. At the outset, the systems are supplied by only natural gas (main source) and some electricity. The buildings have individual AC units.

EML has considered local resources such as river and sewage water. In numerous scenarios, we have tested production, storage, and grid capacities, and space heat, space cooling, and hot water production in different combinations of technologies.

Our initial analysis has shown that a mix of geothermal and air-source pumps is the most feasible and lowest-cost solution for a future system.

Total discounted costs of systems

The analysis included the costs of grid expansion and the building of new pipes. Furthermore, we tested the optimal percentage of residential houses to be connected to the different kinds of pumps. We could demonstrate significant differences in total discounted costs of systems between tested mixes.

In addition to total system costs for different technology mixes, our analysis included CapEx breakdowns and estimates of primary energy supply and final energy consumption.

The TIMES-Arlington model is set to optimize the system for the milestone years 2024, 2030, 2040, and 2050.

Load profiles and accurate system sizing

To ensure accurate system sizing according to the load demands and to reflect peaks, we selected eight representative weeks based on load profiles. Each selected week captures the load behavior of a specific season. The resulting time series distinguishes between weekdays and non-weekdays and represents 24 hours per day. This method also minimizes computational time.

MODELLING

The TIMES-Arlington model is developed using the TIMES energy systems modelling framework. It represents a school’s heating and cooling systems and an adjacent neighbourhood in Arlington, US.

SCENARIOS

We have tested production, storage, and grid capacities, and space heat, space cooling, and hot water production in scenarios with different combinations of technologies.

REPORT

In addition to total discounted system costs of different technology mixes, our analysis included CapEx breakdowns and estimates of primary energy supply and final energy consumption.

Client: Brightcore Energy

EML-team: Ida Græsted Jensen, Andrea Marian Radozynski, and Till ben Brahim

Duration: October 2024 – January 2025

26th February 202526th February 2025

Innovating Energy Planning in Ukraine

Vinnytsia municipality has engaged in a project to develop a comprehensive district heating investment roadmap, innovating energy planning in Ukraine. As part of the project, the Energy Modelling Lab is building the TIMES-Vinnytsia energy systems model.

The model enables energy planners to identify the most cost-effective and sustainable solutions to modernize the district heating system. It covers the period 2025-2050. Subsequently, Vinnytsia’s energy planners can adopt a long-term strategic approach, allowing for informed decisions on priority investment projects.

Building the TIMES-Vinnytsia model entails mapping available local energy resources such as river water, wind, waste energy, geothermal, and solar. Furthermore, we will assess the feasibility of using these sources in the local district heating system. Likewise, we will analyze current assets to determine which ones should be replaced or retrofitted and identify opportunities for system expansion.

20-30 scenarios for modernizing the district heating system

We expect to develop and analyze 20-30 scenarios for modernizing the district heating system. The scenarios will show the impact of factors such as energy taxation policies, choice of energy resources, alignment with EU legislation (e.g., EU Taxonomy), the resilience of the energy system (technology combinations, storage solutions), the marginal cost of production, potential grid expansion, and energy efficiency investments in buildings.

The analysis of the scenarios will result in a roadmap for 2025-2050 outlining recommended investments, timing, and costs.

The TIMES-Vinnytsia will have a representation of the heat supply balance including storages and demands and showing centralized and individual options.

Vinnytsia first in Ukraine to announce the Green Deal

Vinnytsia has 370.000 inhabitants. It is located on the banks of the Southern Bug and is a prominent industrial city. Vinnytsia City Territorial Community was the first in Ukraine to announce the Green Deal following the example of the European Green Deal.

The district heating systems in Ukraine supply about 40 pct. of the residents during the heating season. The National Renewable Energy Action Plan (NREAP) has set ambitious targets to increase the share of renewable energy in heating and cooling from 20.8% to 32.5% by 2030.

MODELLING

Building the TIMES-Vinnytsia model. We use the TIMES energy systems modelling framework. It was developed as a methodology for energy scenarios to conduct in-depth energy and environmental analyses by ETSAP, a technology collaboration program under the IEA.

SCENARIO ANALYSIS

Generating and analyzing 20-30 scenarios of modernizing the Vinnytsia district heating system considering the impact on demand and production by factors such as energy taxation policies, choice of energy resources, alignment with EU taxonomy, and energy system resilience.

ROADMAP

Developing a Roadmap 2025-2050 detailing recommended priority investment projects, timeline, and costs. The Roadmap will support the energy planners of Vinnytsia Municipality in making informed choices and enable long-term strategic planning.

Client: IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute

Donor: Nordic Environment Finance Corporation (NEFCO)

EML Team: Ida Græsted Jensen, Till ben Brahim, and Andrea Radoszynski

Duration: January 2025 – August 2025

22nd April 202421st February 2025

Newsletter 2023

The past year has been very active and productive as we show in our Newsletter 2023. We have created the TIMES-KUWAIT model and further developed the TIMES-Vietnam, TIMES-Jordan, and TIMES-NEU models. The latter covers Northern Europe. We have also embarked on several research projects. One focuses on PtX, another on modelling the AFOLU sector. A third project is focusing on supporting local authorities to speed up the green transition.

Inspired by community

We were pleased to attend the Semi-annual ETSAP meeting in Turin in November. Our consultant Till Ben Brahim made a presentation on the possibility for the Nordic countries, especially Denmark, to become a green hub for the export of green hydrogen and electricity to Europe. He showed scenarios generated by the TIMES-NEU model that we have used to analyze future energy markets in the Nordics.

Furthermore, we had the opportunity to network and agree with colleagues from Italy, Belgium, and the Nordic countries to team up regularly and share results from our work.

Creating the TIMES-KUWAIT model

We have contributed to the first steps of strategic energy planning in Kuwait as consultants on the project Developing Kuwait’s Long-Term Climate Pathways. In the first place, we developed a database for energy and GHG emissions. Next, we created the TIMES-KUWAIT model and generated different scenarios including rapid expansion of the renewable fuel market and reduced exports.

The government of Kuwait has pledged to reach net-zero emissions in the oil and gas sector by 2050 and by 2060 for the whole country.

Best location of PtXplants

As part of MissionGreenFuels, EML is collaborating with 13 partners on the PtX Sector Coupling and Life Cycle Assessment Project. The expected result is to create better ways to determine optimal ways of integrating PtX into the green transition. To this end, we are developing and updating the TIMES-NEU model.

Please find the Newsletter 2024 below.

Newsletter-2023 Download