Cities account for about 66 pct. of the total final energy consumption and more than 75pct. of global CO2 emissions. Subsequently, the green transition of city energy systems is key to reaching climate targets. We are supervising a PhD project focusing on city energy planning and modelling the Gothenburg city energy system as a case study.
The PhD is entitled “Policy-driven long-term development of city energy systems” and written by Kushagra Gupta at Chalmers University of Technology, Sweden.
The objectives of the research
- To investigate how the city’s energy plans drive the long-term development of the city’s energy system.
- To explore how the city energy plans coordinate with the national climate targets from a long-term perspective.
- To identify optimal pathways for allocating resources to competing sectors during the transition.
Methodology
We have built a tailored energy systems model, the TIMES-NE city model. The model allows us to investigate the impact of the city energy plan on the long-term energy systems development.
The model represents a Northern European city setting. It’s based on the TIMES modeling framework developed and maintained by the IEA-ETSAP (International Energy Agency – The Energy Technology Systems Analysis Program).
The model has a representation of developments in the supply and demand side of the heating, electricity, and transportation sectors. The time horizon is from 2018-2050. The temporal resolution of the model is 12*24 to incorporate seasonal and hourly variations. The spatial boundary covers the area within the control of the municipal authorities. The city is further divided into multiple segments based on demographics.
Novelty of the study
The novelty of the study lies in adopting an integrated model approach. This approach allows for exploring intra- and inter-sectorial linkages.
Furthermore, this study explores the supply and demand side whereas most studies focus on either the supply or demand side. Subsequently, it enables us to account for the competition of resources among sectors.
Another important characteristic of this modelling study is the inclusion of customer perspective in investment decisions.
Scenarios
We are developing four scenarios for our analysis:
1) The reference scenario (REF) extends the base year model over the modelling time horizon. Already adopted national policy instruments such as energy and carbon tax, reduction obligations for the transport sector are included in the reference scenario. No additional policy measures or system improvements take place. Historical trends are projected into the future to evaluate the demands and shape a reference energy system.
2) The City Energy Plan scenario (CEP), in which the main goals identified under the Gothenburg Energy Plan 2021-2030 are applied and tested.
3) Integrated National Energy and Climate Plan (INEP), in which the national climate targets for Sweden are translated into targets for the city.
4) EU-Effort Sharing regulation (EU-ESR), Similar to INEP, in this scenario, Sweden’s commitment to EU-ESR is translated into climate targets for the city.
Gothenburg Energy Plan
The purpose of the energy plan is to promote the implementation of measures that lead to the city of Gothenburg reaching the environmental goal for the climate in the City’s Environmental and Climate Program 2021-2030.
The environmental and climate program 2021-2030 is the starting point for the energy plan. The plan describes how the City of Gothenburg will work to achieve the energy-related goals in the program.
Within the Gothenburg energy plan, the city has interim goals for the climate:
· The city of Gothenburg reduces energy use in homes and premises.
· The City of Gothenburg only produces energy from renewable sources.
· The city of Gothenburg reduces the climate impact of transport.
· The City of Gothenburg reduces the climate impact of purchasing.
The plans cover the energy produced or used within the municipal geographic area, the energy produced by the city of Gothenburg, and the energy used by municipality employees when traveling outside.
Institution: Chalmers University of Technology, Sweden
University Supervisor: Professor Erik Ahlgren, Department of Space, Earth and Environment
PhD student: Kushagra Gupta EML-team: Kenneth Karlsson
Duration: 2021-2026