Energy Modelling Lab contributed to the background study “The Value of Early Action on Energy Efficiency”, focusing on buildings and industries. We identified key energy efficiency messages, which we presented at the IEA Energy Efficiency Conference 2022 in the Danish city of Sønderborg.
In collaboration with our partners, we examined the importance of early action on energy efficiency, the costs of delayed progress, and the benefits of reaching energy efficiency milestones on the way to net zero emissions by 2050. The study was contracted by the International Energy Agency and financed by Danfoss.
Early action matters. A low energy efficiency pathway would increase final energy consumption by 39%, and CO2 emissions increase by 16% if action is delayed by 10 years. Energy efficiency is the most effective measure to quickly improve energy security and lower electricity prices, and reduced air pollution in a global net zero emissions scenario can lower the cost of global health impacts by almost €500 billion in 2030.
Water heaters offer the biggest shifting potential and, therefore, the biggest potential CO2 emission reductions, so should be among the first products to be digitised given their high savings and load shifting potential. In process industries, maintenance and simple upgrades of process plants can save 5 to 10% with a very short payback time, and the use of electromagnetic sources for process heat, while still at an early stage, holds promising potential to save energy by a factor of 10 or more.
Scenario analyses of low and high energy efficiency pathways, estimating accumulated final energy consumption, CO2 emissions and air pollution, using the IEA’s Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario as the central reference case, with a focus on action this decade across all major energy using regions globally.
Close collaboration with the International Energy Agency, Danfoss and our partners Energiforsk and Viegand Maagøe throughout the study, refining the scenarios and key messages ahead of the conference presentation.
Key findings presented at the IEA Energy Efficiency Conference 2022 in Sønderborg, Denmark, informing energy efficiency policy priorities on the path to net zero emissions by 2050.
Client: International Energy Agency (IEA) and Danfoss
Reference: Markus Wråke, CEO, Energiforsk
Collaborators: Energiforsk, Viegand Maagøe
EML team: Kenneth Karlsson and Ida Græsted Jensen
Budget: DKK 596,000
Duration: January to April 2022
Model: Not applicable (built on the IEA’s Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario rather than an EML model)