Category: Scenario analysis

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Clean Nordic shipping

With a combined coastline of 43.000 km trading and traveling by sea is essential in the Nordic countries. At present, the maritime industry is facing a challenging green transition, diverting away from fossil fuels towards renewable energy sources. Probing the possibilities for clean Nordic shipping is more relevant than ever.

There are many possible paths to a sustainable Nordic shipping industry. Energy Modelling Lab is involved in the HOPE project, launched by Nordic Energy Research. The full name of the project is Hydrogen Fuel Cells Solutions in shipping in relation to other low-carbon options – a Nordic perspective.

HOPE analyses alternatives for CO2-neutral marine fuels and propulsion technologies from a Nordic point of view, by assessing the role of hydrogen and fuel cell solutions in relation to other low or zero-carbon fuel options.

SCENARIO ANALYSIS
Through a series of scenario studies, the Nordic energy model (ON-TIMES) is used to find the optimal paths to a fossil-free shipping industry.

TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT
The project has a special focus on hydrogen and fuel cells in relation to the other low-carbon options.

Duration: November 2021 – February 2023

EML team: Kenneth Karlsson, Andrea Marin Radoszynski & Alexandra O’Sullivan Freltoft

Partners: IVL – Svenska Miljöinstitutet

Client: Nordic Energy Research

Budget: DKK 148,000

Reference: Julie Hansson, Senior Project Manager

Model: The Open Nordic TIMES model (ON-TIMES) can be found open source in our GitHub repository.

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Energy strategy in Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan means the land of fire and energy resources as natural gas simply sets the country on fire. As the country moves forward new investments in energy and infrastructure are needed.

To ensure an informed decision process Energy Modelling Lab has supported the Government of Azerbaijan in developing and implementing a long-term energy strategy. We have created a tailored energy systems model, the TIMES-AZ, using the TIMES energy modelling framework.

Building DK-BioRes

MODELLING
Energy Modelling Lab has developed and implemented a full energy model (TIMES-AZ) for Azerbaijan, connecting all relevant sectors from energy and heating to transport and industry.

SCENARIO ANALYSIS
The model is used for long-term energy systems and climate policy planning.

TRAINING
Energy Modelling Lab is supporting the Government of Azerbaijan with training in the use of the energy system model.

Duration: November 2020 – November 2021

External experts from the EML Team: Kenneth Karlsson, Mikkel Bosack Simonsen, Till ben Brahim & Andrea Marin Radoszynski

Client: Government of Azerbaijan

Consortium: Rambøll, NIRAS, Equinoccio

Reference: Angel Diez, Managing Partner, Equinoccio

Donor: The EU Commission

Budget: DKK 644,425

Model: TIMES-AZ

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Climate neutral agriculture in Denmark

The Danish agricultural sector is facing the green transition and many ideas have been proposed to reach climate-neutral agriculture in Denmark by 2050. In this brief, we suggest two pathways to climate neutrality to follow the general goals of a 70% reduction in 2030 and a 100% reduction in 2050.

70% greenhouse gas reduction by 2030

100% greenhouse gas neutral by 2050

No animal feed import by 2050

Technology-optimistic or technology-independent

The first scenario is a technology-optimistic scenario, while the second scenario to a larger extent can reach the goals without technological development. In both scenarios, a large increase in the forest areas is necessary such that the forest area in 2050 is approximately double the area of today.

In the technology-optimistic scenario, the amount of farm animals can be kept at the same level as today because the biogas and pyrolysis plants can reduce part of the emissions and the forests compensate for the rest of the emissions. In the technology-independent scenario, it is necessary to reduce the amount of farm animals to reach the climate targets.

Key figures

FOREST
1.000.000 ha, roughly 23% of the Danish land mass, must be covered in forest by 2050.

The forestation should happen sooner rather than later so 160.000 – 200.000 ha should be converted into forest already by 2030.

LOW LAND AREAS
100.000 ha of carbon-rich lowland soil should be converted into natural areas by 2030.

All 178.700 ha low land soil must be converted into nature by 2050.

ANIMALS
In a technology-optimistic scenario, with a sharp increase in forest area, animal production can remain the same size as today.

In a technology-independent scenario a 15% reduction in animal production by 2030, and a 30% reduction in 2050 relative to today is necessary.

If the steep forest area does not happen, a further reduction in animal production is necessary.

Read the full analysis

Klimaneutralt dansk landbrug (2021)Download

The model is open-sourced

Make scenarios yourself. Download the full model used for the brief from our GitHub repository.

Duration: 2021

EML-Team: Kenneth Karlsson and Ida Græsted

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Vietnam’s long-term energy strategy

The Vietnamese economy is growing, and so is the energy demand. As the country moves forward new investments in clean energy and infrastructure are highly needed.

Energy Modelling Lab supports the Vietnamese government in developing and implementing a long-term energy strategy. We have updated and expanded an advanced energy systems model for Vietnam, the TIMES-Vietnam model.

Building DK-BioRes

MODELLING
Energy Modelling Lab has further developed the transport sector in the energy systems model for Vietnam, TIMES-Vietnam.

The model connects all relevant sectors from energy and heating to transport, industry, and health.

SCENARIO ANALYSIS
The model is used for long-term energy systems and climate policy planning. The scenarios show different paths to reach the Vietnamese government’s climate targets.

REPORT
The scenario results serve as a foundation for the development of the Vietnam Energy Outlook report, showing the path ahead for the Vietnamese energy system.

Duration: 2020 – 2022

EML Team: Ida Græsted Jensen, Till ben Brahim and Kenneth Karlsson

Client: This project is part of the Framework contracts with Global Cooperation at the Danish Energy Agency

Collaborators: Ea Energy Analyses, Institute of Energy, E4SMA, Aarhus University

Model: TIMES

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Nordic Clean Energy Scenarios

The project Nordic Clean Energy Scenarios aims at identifying technological solutions to a fully carbon-neutral Nordic region. It further aims at developing energy scenarios for the Nordic energy sector enabling the Nordic commitment to reach carbon neutrality.

Collaborating on finding the right solutions

NCES2020 brings together nine teams from four Nordic countries, with complementing modelling and analytical skills. Combined with the use of open-access energy system models and data, this strengthens Nordic cooperation and expertise in energy modelling.

The path to neutrality

If you are curious to know more about the results, you can find the five solution tracks here. You can also listen to the podcast, read the full report, or dive straight into the results data.

Building DK-BioRes

MODELLING
Energy Modelling Lab has developed an open-source energy model for the Nordic region (ON-TIMES).

The model covers Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Finland and Iceland.

SCENARIO ANALYSIS
The model is used to identify paths to a fully carbon-neutral Nordic region.

Find the scenario results here.

REPORT
The results are collected in the Nordic Clean Energy Scenarios report.

Duration: March 2020 – April 2021.

Project: Nordic Clean Energy Scenarios

EML Team: Kenneth Karlsson

Client: Nordic Energy Research

Budget: NOK 320.000

Reference: Kevin Johnsen, COO, Nordic Energy Research

Model: Open Nordic TIMES model (ON-TIMES)

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A new educational platform KAOS

Educating the future generation on how to tackle the climate crisis is essential. Energy Modelling Lab has developed a new educational platform KAOS, containing exercises within Mathematics, Social science, Geography, and Physics.

The platform focuses on climate change and energy system modelling and provides the students with the challenging task within Energy systems and planning, Carbon budgets, agriculture scenarios, and more.

Try it out: kaos.world

Duration: June – April 2021

Team: Kenneth Karlsson and Alexandra O’Sullivan Freltoft

Collaborators: Jette Hagesen from Envice

Client: Børne- og Undervisningsministeriet

Web platform: kaos.world

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Reducing air pollution saves billions of kroner

When discussing how expensive the green transition becomes for Danish society, it is important to consider more aspects than the investments needed.

Our results show that when looking solely at the saved health costs from the reduction in air pollution, society can save 10 to 20 billion Danish kroner per year.

Several Danish studies estimate the cost of transition to be approximately 13 to 26 billion Danish kroner a year from 2025 to the year when the transition is complete. These costs often do not include savings for society in terms of e.g., less air pollution.

Read the full analysis (Danish):

Download

EML Notat nr. 1 “Husk Helbredsomkostningerne”

EML Team: Kenneth Karlsson and Ida Græsted

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Energy planning in Ukraine

The main objective of the project is to support Ukraine in planning for its future green energy system.

The project is part of a partnership program between Ukraine and Denmark, to achieve the goals of the Energy Strategy of Ukraine for 2050.

Building DK-BioRes

MODELLING
Improving and updating the Energy System Model for Ukraine (TIMES-Ukraine), to contain the newest trends and technologies.

SCENARIO ANALYSIS
The model is used for long-term energy systems and climate policy planning.

REPORT
Supporting the development of the Action Plan, showing the road towards national greenhouse gas reductions in Ukraine.

Duration: September 2020 – April 2021

Program: Ukraine-Denmark Energy Partnership Program (UDEPP)

EML Team: Mikkel Bosack Simonsen, Kenneth Karlsson

Client: The Ministry of Environmental Protection and Natural Resources in Ukraine

Donor: Danish Energy Agency

Budget: DKK 382.050

Reference: Mourad Boucenna

Model: TIMES-Ukraine

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Zero Energy Buildings in Korea

The Korea New Green Deal highlights that a total of $15.3 billion is invested, in Zero Energy Public Buildings by 2025. The focus on Zero Energy Buildings has a specific target on schools including remodeling old school buildings. The aim is to make them energy-efficient and run on solar power.

In this study, the Energy Modeling Lab analyses the impacts of changing the energy supply in South Korea’s school buildings. The three focus areas are greenhouse gasses, air pollution, and health, and economic consequences.

Implementation date: March 2021 – May 2021

Contact person: Till ben Brahim