Category: Workshops and education

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Supporting the Council on Climate Change

Energy Modelling Lab is updating and handing over the Danish Bioresource Model

Energy Modelling Lab is supporting the Danish Council on Climate Change. We are updating and handing over the Danish Biomass Resource Model, DK-BioRes, that we developed a few years ago. DK-BioRes is a flow-based model and contains all Danish biomass resources from agriculture, forestry, and aquaculture. The updated model will feature several technologies for reducing carbon emissions and nitrification. As part of the project, we are building up the capacities of the staff at the Council so that they can use the model themselves.

With the DK-BioRes model at hand, The Danish Council on Climate Change can develop comprehensive scenarios of climate neutrality concerning land use, yield, and emissions from agriculture, aquaculture, and forestry. They can integrate the use of biomass and consumer behavior in the scenario. The project is thus enhancing the capacities of the Council to provide suggestions for cost-effective climate policy solutions.

The model is available on GitHub

Building DK-BioRes

MODELLING

Energy Modelling Lab is updating the flow-based model DK-BioRES that we have developed. The model features all Danish biomass resources from agriculture, forestry, and aquaculture.

The model can generate scenarios of the impact of different strategies and of increasing the use of technologies such as manure acidification and air cleaning to reduce carbon emissions.

CAPACITY BUILDING

Energy Modelling Lab trains the staff of the Danish Climate Council on updating and using the model to develop scenarios. We also include training on quality assurance of the scenarios.

By the end of the project, we are handing over the DK-BioRES Model to the Danish Climate Council assuring full ownership by the staff.

Duration: May – November 2023

EML Team: Ida Græsted Jensen and Kenneth Karlsson

Client: The Danish Council on Climate Change

Budget: DKK 320.000

Reference: Bodil Harder

Model: The Danish Bioressource Model – (DK-BioRes)

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Viet Nam to reach net-zero emissions

Energy Modelling Lab is updating and redesigning the energy systems model we tailored for Viet Nam, the TIMES-Vietnam model. We are developing the scenarios that will be used for the analyses in the Energy Outlook Report 2023.

Viet Nam is already making headways in planning for the energy sector and is heading to reach net-zero emissions in 2050. Viet Nam Energy Outlook Report 2021  examined possible pathways for the development of the energy sector, and it featured a trajectory to reach the net-zero target for the first time.

One major finding of the Outlook Report 2021 was that a sustainable energy system will enable self-sufficiency. Another was that wind and solar energy are cheaper long-term solutions than coal and gas. At present, coal is the leading source of power.

The TIMES-Vietnam model supports strategic energy planning as it enables decision-makers to identify the most cost-effective and feasible pathways to achieve a sustainable green transition.

Building DK-BioRes

MODELLING

The first step is to meet with our Vietnamese partners and agree on the questions to address, relevant analyses to undertake, and scenarios to design.

Energy Modelling Lab then redesigns and updates the TIMES-Vietnam model. We strengthen the representation of new decarbonization technologies and integrate relevant constraints.

SCENARIO ANALYSIS

The core scenarios focus on the realization of the net-zero target. They allow for a comprehensive investigation of optimal solutions. The results are then reflected in recommendations for policymaking.

The process fosters a wide consensus and understanding of Viet Nam’s energy challenges and opportunities in the mid-to long term.

REPORT

The Viet Nam Energy Outlook Report 2023 identifies the cost-optimized solutions that support Viet Nam’s energy system to become sustainable.

The Report allows for decision-makers to explore the system-wide implications of fulfilling targets by 2050. It also shows how Viet Nam can contribute to fulfilling the Paris Agreement on climate change.

Duration: March- December 2023

EML Team: Kenneth Karlsson, Ida Græsted Jensen &Till ben Brahim

Client: Danish Energy Agency 

Total budget: DKK 572.288

Reference: Giada Venturini, Danish Energy Agency

Collaborators: Electricity and Renewable Energy Authority (EREA, Vietnam), Hanoi University of Science and Technology, and E4SMA

Model: TIMES-VNM

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Enhancing energy planning in Viet Nam

Energy Modelling Lab is enhancing energy planning in Viet Nam

Viet Nam is a regional manufactural hub and one of the most dynamic countries in East Asia, with the GDP annual growth rate averaging 6.2 percent from 2000 until 2023. According to the analysis in the Viet Nam Energy Outlook Report 2021, electricity consumption will more than double in 2050 compared to 2020.

Viet Nam has pledged to reach the target of net-zero emissions by 2050. This means the power system must meet more than 70 percent of the total final energy demand with renewable energy-based electricity.

Energy Modelling Lab supports the endeavors to enhance energy planning in Viet Nam. We assist the Vietnamese authorities by building up their planning capacities concerning scenario-based, long-term modelling of the Vietnamese energy system. To this end, we are integrating an updated technology catalog in the present energy system model. We have included electricity storage solutions, P2X, nuclear technologies, optimal use of biomass, and carbon capture and storage in the catalog.

Building DK-BioRes

MODELLING

Energy Modelling Lab updates the technology catalog that is integrated into the present energy system model.

The catalog includes decarbonization technologies that are not yet being used and describes costs and relevant technical parameters.

ANALYSIS

The catalog contributes to fostering data-driven discussions and understanding of the potential of decarbonization technologies.

The expected outcome of this process is a broader consensus on the potential.

RESULTS

The results will be integrated into the existing energy system model and can create first insights into cost-optimal applications of these technologies.

The results will contribute to making the Viet Nam Energy Outlook Report 2023 more comprehensive and enable decision-making on investments.

Duration: November 2022 – August 2023

EML Team: Kenneth Karlsson, Ida Græsted Jensen &Till ben Brahim

Client: UNOPS

Budget: DKK 93.438

Reference: Maurizio Gargiulo, Director of E4SMA

Collaborators: Electricity and Renewable Energy Authority (EREA, Vietnam), Danish Energy Agency (DEA) and E4SMA

Model: TIMES-VNM

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Net-zero emissions in Kuwait

Kuwait City skyline
Energy Modelling Lab helps reaching net-zero emissions in Kuwait

Kuwait is becoming one of the hottest countries on the planet and faces profound social and ecological challenges from continued global warming and the transition from fossil fuels. The government has pledged to reach net-zero emissions in the oil and gas sector by 2050 and by 2060 for the whole country.

At present, oil accounts for 90 % of the national revenue and more than half of GDP, and renewable energy for less than 1 % of demand. Kuwait thus needs clever and comprehensive solutions. With abundant wind and solar resources, the potential is at hand.

Energy Modelling Lab supports steps to reach net-zero emissions in Kuwait by 2060. We are developing an energy systems model, the TIMES-KUWIAT, that allows us to identify the least-cost and most feasible green energy systems. Based on these results we can designate pathways to integrate the new solutions across five key sectors: Energy, Industry, Agriculture, land use, and Waste.

Building DK-BioRes

MODELLING

Energy Modelling Lab develops a database for energy and GHG emissions, builds consensus on ambitions, and shortlists decarbonization options.

We develop the TIMES-KUWAIT model featuring different scenarios including rapid expansion of the renewable fuel market and reduced exports.

SCENARIO ANALYSIS

Analyzing the different scenarios allows for informed decision-making on the optimal solutions integrated across sectors.

Socioeconomic and environmental impacts and co-benefits such as improved health are identified and considered.

RESULTS

Results are presented in a website format with open access and all key results are shared in Excel sheets.

Users can move between scenarios and study results like emissions and energy consumption by sector and costs.

Duration: August 2022 – June 2024

External experts from EML : Mikkel Bosack Simonsen and Ida Græsted Jensen

Client: UNEP

Total budget: USD 64.920

Reference: Sarah Carmen Fiedler, associate expert, UNEP

Collaborators: SDA Sustainable Development Advisors

Model: TIMES-Kuwait

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Low emission strategy in Jordan

Solar energy in Jordan. Energy Modelling Lab is assisting to develop a low emission strategy for Jordan.

Jordan is considered to be among the world’s most vulnerable to drought as a result of climate change. Major challenges are aridity, water scarcity, heavy reliance on fossil energy imports, rapid population growth, and urbanization.

The government is now addressing the need to transition to a greener and more resilient economy. One important step is developing a National Long-Term Low Emission Strategy and Options Report 2050.

Energy Modelling Lab is contributing to developing a low-emission strategy in Jordan. We are creating a tailored energy systems model, the TIMES-Jordan model. This modelling framework represents eight key sectors and their interconnections. By embedding baseline scenarios, we can estimate the impact of different options for decarbonization. We then create a shortlist of the least cost and most feasible options and designate the optimal pathways.

Building DK-BioRes

MODELLING
We have built a tailored energy systems model, the TIMES-Jordan, using the TIMES energy systems modelling framework developed under IEA.

The model includes a full investment catalog for the entire energy sector and shows the economically optimal pathways through the jungle of technological solutions.

SCENARIO ANALYSIS
Through a series of scenarios, we can investigate the consequences of different climate scenarios and consider prioritized mitigation actions.

We also identify and consider socioeconomic and environmental impacts and co-benefits such as improved health and energy savings.

REPORT
The final report proposes optimal decarbonization pathways and provides policy recommendations that are validated through workshops with key stakeholders.

The Jordanian Government will have a solid basis for a continuously informed decision process as we will build local partner capacity to use and update the model.

Duration: August 2022 – June 2024

EML Team: Kenneth Karlsson, Mikkel Bosack Simonsen, Ida Græsted Jensen 

Client: The World Bank

Budget: DKK 679,250

Reference: Karsten Holm, Danish Energy Management

Collaborators: Danish Energy Management (DEM) and the Water, Energy, and Environment Center (WEEC) of the University of Jordan

Model: TIMES-JO

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Energy strategy in Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan means the land of fire and energy resources as natural gas simply sets the country on fire. As the country moves forward new investments in energy and infrastructure are needed.

To ensure an informed decision process Energy Modelling Lab has supported the Government of Azerbaijan in developing and implementing a long-term energy strategy. We have created a tailored energy systems model, the TIMES-AZ, using the TIMES energy modelling framework.

Building DK-BioRes

MODELLING
Energy Modelling Lab has developed and implemented a full energy model (TIMES-AZ) for Azerbaijan, connecting all relevant sectors from energy and heating to transport and industry.

SCENARIO ANALYSIS
The model is used for long-term energy systems and climate policy planning.

TRAINING
Energy Modelling Lab is supporting the Government of Azerbaijan with training in the use of the energy system model.

Duration: November 2020 – November 2021

External experts from the EML Team: Kenneth Karlsson, Mikkel Bosack Simonsen, Till ben Brahim & Andrea Marin Radoszynski

Client: Government of Azerbaijan

Consortium: Rambøll, NIRAS, Equinoccio

Reference: Angel Diez, Managing Partner, Equinoccio

Donor: The EU Commission

Budget: DKK 644,425

Model: TIMES-AZ

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Danish Bioresource Model

What is needed for the Danish agriculture and forestry to become climate neutral?
How should the limited Danish area be distributed in the future?
How can we utilize the available Danish biomass resources?

These are some of the tricky questions the Danish bio-resource model (DK-BioRes) can help answering.

If you want to create your own scenarios, the model is available open source in our GitHub repository.

Building DK-BioRes

MODELLING

Energy Modelling Lab has developed the flow-based model DK-BioRes containing all Danish biomass resources from both agriculture, forestry and aquaculture.

The model serves as a foundation for political decisions towards reaching the national climate goals.

The model can be connected to the full national energy model, DK-TIMES.

TRAINING THE USERS

A crucial part of the project is training the analysts from the Danish Energy Agency in using the DK-BioRes model.

Through the series of courses Energy Modelling Lab has been training both regular and super users.

Duration: October 2020 – June 2021

EML team: Ida Græsted Jensen & Alexandra O’Sullivan Freltoft

Client: Danish Energy Agency

Budget: DKK 490.000

Reference: Bodil Harder

Model: The Danish Bioressource Model (DK-BioRes)

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TIMES modelling courses at SDU

Energy Modelling Lab provides TIMES modelling courses at SDU, the Southern University of Denmark. Furthermore, one of the students joined Energy Modelling Lab for an internship in the fall of 2021.

TIMES modelling course

The students get an insight into the globally used energy system modelling tool TIMES. Furthermore, the course dives into the Danish model TIMES-DK to assess the Danish energy systems.

Projects made by the students

– Modelling of battery capacity in electric vehicles
– Energy islands in the Danish area of the North Sea

Duration: 2019-2021

Contact person EML: Kenneth Karlsson and Ida Græsted

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PhD-course in energy modelling

The Technical University of Denmark asked Energy Modelling Lab to help organize and run a Ph.D. course in energy modelling. The title of the course is Introduction to Balmorel.

Throughout the 3-week course, the students gained knowledge of
– Energy systems analysis and scenarios
– Mathematical optimization
– The energy systems model Balmorel

Date: August 2021

EML Team: Ida Græsted Jensen

Client: Technical University of Denmark

Collaborators: Hans Ravn, RAMLOSE EDB

Model: Balmorel

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Training for international energy modellers

Energy Modelling Lab was asked by DTU to conduct training for international energy modellers, resulting in the course Introduction to Balmorel.

Through the 4-week course, the students learned:
– How to do system energy modelling
– To use the Balmorel modelling tool.

The course included visits from the Danish Energy Agency and Ea Energy Analysis. Furthermore, the students went on field trips to Danish Energy and Energy Modelling Lab.

The course was tailored to modellers from developing and growing countries and had 20 participants from five countries. It was taking place at the Technical University of Denmark (DTU), through the Danida Fellowship Centre.

Date: August 2021 – September 2021.

Contact person, EML: Ida Græsted Jensen

Contact, DTU: Marie Münster

Other participants: Ea Energy Analyses, RAMLØSE EDB