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Newsletter winter 2023 – An inspiring visit to NY

During the past half year we have developed new features for the TIMES model framework, dived into PtX and biogas, and begun the development of a new clean model structure.

Inspired by community

The ETSAP meetup for TIMES-modellers in New York was a great inspiration. During the conference we learn of a UN-database that contains data for all countries of the world. So our new dream is to use the database to automate the model creation and build TIMES-models for all countries in the world.

Read more about the vision in the full newsletter below.

Maabjerg Bioenergy in Holstebro, Denmark.
New biogas-module

Biogas will play an increasing role in the Danish energy system. Therefore we have developed a new biogas module for the Danish Energy Agency, to ensure a detailed representation of biogas in their future mode work.

Read more about the new biogas module right here.

flows of ptx-fules

To analyse the demand and supply of green hydrogen and other synthetic fuels, we have developed a new model of Northern Europe.

The model is a combined TIMES-model that includes Denmark, Sweden, Norway, Germany, and Poland. The model also includes external trade-links to UK, Belgium, and the Netherlands.

We hope to publish some results from the analysis soon.

If you want to read the full newsletter, you can find it here:

Newsletter-Winter-2023-1Download
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New biogas module

Biogas plays an important role in the Danish energy system. That is why it is important to have a detailed representation of both existing and potential biogas technologies in the TIMES models.

Energy Modelling Lab has developed a new detailed biogas module in collaboration with The Danish Energy Agency.

Maabjerg Bioenergy in Holstebro is one of the 89 existing Danish biogas plants that has been modeled in the new biogas module.

The biogas module contains both existing and new plants

The model can now utilize the 89 existing biogas plants in Denmark, and it can choose to invest in new biogas plants, when searching for solutions to cover our future energy demand.

Each plant can take classic biomasses such as manure or straw as input and generates both biogas and a fiber fraction, which can be utilized in for example pyrolysis processes. But the model is also ready to use new types of biomass like seaweed in future biogas plants.

The biogas plants in the module can each take different types of biomass as input and turn it into biogas and a fiber fraction. In the process there is a methane (CH4) leakage depending on the age of the biogas plants.

Restrictions and regulation

A couple restrictions have been added to the biogas plants. In this way the model results become more realistic:

Project period: September 2022 – December 2022

EML Team: Ida Græsted Jensen and Alexandra O’Sullivan Freltoft

Client: Danish Energy Agency

Model: IntERACT (TIMES framework)

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Heat pumps are the future of district heating

In the near future wind and solar will take over the electricity market. As a result the thermal power and district heating plants will close down faster than the Danish Energy Agency projects.

In this analysis for Dansk Fjernvarme, Energy Modelling Lab has dived into the details of the future of district heating in Denmark, to explore where the heat will come from, and if our energy system will get too vulnerable without the thermal powerplants.

Key findings

In the future district heating will primarily come from large scale heat pumps and surplus heat from PtX-plants and data centers.

The thermal power and heat plants are being phased out faster than the Danish Energy Agency projects.

An energy system with a low diversity comes with an increased risk of failure.

Read the full analysis here (in Danish):

Analysis: Development in thermal power and heat capacity Download
Building DK-BioRes

MODELLING
Energy Modelling Lab has updated the Danish TIMES model (TIMES-DK) to include 23 individual district heating areas and four aggregated areas.

SCENARIO ANALYSIS
Energy Modelling Lab has investigated the consequences of an upper limit in biomass used for power and heat and an upper limit in the number of PtX-plants.

REPORT
All results and scenarios are collected in the report above.

Year: 2022

EML Team: Mikkel Bosack Simonsen, Ida Græsted Jensen, Alexandra O’Sullivan Freltoft

Client: Dansk Fjernvarme

Model: TIMES-DK

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ETSAP Newsletter spring 2022 – An active member of the modelling community

As part of the ETSAP community, Energy Modelling Lab is both developing the TIMES model framework, using it for a range of projects, and share our experiences within the network.

PROJECTS AROUND THE GLOBE

Energy Modelling Lab har worked on models for countries around the world.

In the Nordics countries we have both investigated paths to a climate neutral future and dived into the shipping industry, to investigate which fuels will power the future sea transport.

In Vietnam we have supported the local modelling team, and in Azerbaijan we have build a full country model from scratch, facilitated workshops with the key stakeholders with the key stakeholder in energy planning in the country and trained local modelers to run the model.

New features in TIMES-DK

Inspired by the discussions at the ETSAP meeting in Oslo 2021, we have added energy storage in TIMES-DK.

Additionally we have added different ancillary services to the model, such as balancing the electricity grid when the demand is greater than the supply.

Giving back to the community

We are always happy to participate in the ETSAP-community activities. After a long period of webinars, it was a relief to join the biannual ETSAP meeting in Oslo in November 2021.

Over the past year we have also expanded the modelling community by training two new employees in the TIMES-model framework. Other than that we have supported a bachelor student from University of Southern Denmark in a project on energy islands, three students from the Technical University of Denmark in a project on German hydrogen demand and a Swedish PhD student on a new model of Gothenburg.

The community is growing, one modeler at a time.

If you want to read the full newsletter, you can find it here:

Newsletter-Spring-2022Download
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Net zero by 2050 in Vietnam

The Vietnamese economy is growing, and so is the demand for energy. As the country moves forward new investments in clean energy and infrastructure is highly needed.

The power generation and storage capacity should be 30 times higher than the current capacity.

Electricity should primarily come from solar power combined with batteries.

Power transmission should be increased by 40% compared to the present capacity.

The Vietnamese economy and energy consumption is growing.

Download the Energy Outlook Report 2021 for Vietnam

The report is written by the Electricity and Renewable Energy Authority in Vietnam (EREA) along with the Danish Energy Agency. Energy Modelling Lab has contributed to both the analysis and the report.

Vietnam Energy Outlook Report 2021Download
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The role of fossil gas in the Nordics

The challenge of reducing the dependency of fossil gas differs between the Nordic countries. Therefore each country has its own set of challenges to solve.

Norway exports while Sweden and Finland imports gas

Denmark is connected to central Europe and receives the gas mix in the grid from both Russia and Norway. (The Danish gas production is temporarily low due to maintenance of the Tyra Field).

Finland gets gas directly from Russia and through Estonia.

Norway exports a large amount of gas mainly to central Europe and partly to the Danish grid.

Sweden gets gas from the European grid through Denmark.

The import and export of fossil gas in the Nordic countries (2020). Source: Eurostat
Fossil gas use differs between the nordic countries

In Denmark around 350,000 buildings are heated by gas, and switching to district heating or heat pumps is a major task in the years to come.

Finland primarily uses gas for electricity and heat production and industry, especially pulp and paper and iron and steal production consumes large amounts of gas. Switching to green energy sources in these processes is the primary task for Finland.

Norway does not have a high domestic gas use in the society as such, but the fossil fuel extraction uses a large amount of gas today. Electrification of the energy production can reduce the fossil gas consumption substantially.

Sweden mainly use gas for non-energy purposes such as fertilizer and plastics, but also for process heat in the iron and steal production, chemical industry and pulp and paper production.

The use of fossil gas differs between the Nordic countries. Source: Eurostat

If you want to dive into more details on the role of fossil gas in the Nordic countries, you can find the full analysis here. The analysis is made in collaboration with IVL and Energiforsk.

The role of fossil gas in the NordicsDownload
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Future heating & cooling in Dublin

The possibilities for sustainable heating and cooling are many, but where is central heating the best option? And what local heat sources are available in different areas? These are some of the questions we are going to help answer in Dublin.

In the future Dublin will be heated by recycling thermal energy. Photo: Salim Darwiche (Wikipedia Commons)

A cool collaboration

Energy Modelling Lab has joined the TEN21 project. Here we are going to help cities all over Europe deliver climate friendly thermal energy.

TEN21 consists of a strong team. Firstly energy modelers build a digital version of the heat system. Thereafter we use the model output to create net zero scenarios. Finally investment experts step in to ensure the plans can become reality. This ensures the entire development path from early planning to financing the implementation.

Sewage as part of the future heating and cooling?

If you want to learn more about recycling heat from for example sewage, metros, and datacenters, then go to TEN21.eu.

This is an example of a thermal energy network. Here, waste from several sources is recycled as heating for public buildings. You can read more at TEN21.eu.
Building DK-BioRes

MODELLING DUBLIN
We develop an optimization model within the TIMES-framework.

First and foremost covers the heat and power sector in Dublin. But this model has an especially high level of detail.

NEUTRAL SCENARIOS
Energy Modelling Lab is developing a series of CO2-neutral scenarios for cooling and heating in Dublin.

In this way we can find the perfect fit for each district.

Duration: April 2021 – ongoing

Project: TEN21

Energy Modelling Lab Contact: Kenneth Karlsson

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A mosaic of district heating

The climate agenda, new technologies, and geopolitical uncertainties all affect the energy system. District heating is a hot topic, and energy planners around the world are looking to Denmark for inspiration.

Local heat resources

In the future our homes are heated from a variety of sources. It can be excess heat from data centers, Power-to-X, or Carbon Capture plants. Or the heat source can be local sewage or waste from agriculture.

We help cities and district heating providers plan for the future of district heating.

Building DK-BioRes

MODELLING
We gather information about the current heating system and the local resources when we model a district heating area. Based on that we create a local optimization module within one of our national models.

SCENARIO ANALYSIS
In a collaboration between the client and the modelling team we identify a series of potential paths to a sustainable district heating system.

A COLLECTION OF PATHS
The investment paths are gathered in a final report, which gives the client an overview of the different options.

Energy Modelling Lab Contact: Kenneth Karlsson

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Clean Nordic shipping

With a combined coastline of 43.000 km trading and travelling by sea is essential in the Nordic countries.

Finding the optimal route to a green future for shipping

The maritime industry is facing a challenging green transition, diverting away from fossil fuels towards renewable energy sources.

There are many possible paths to a sustainable Nordic shipping industry, and this project aims to investigate which low carbon technologies are the most promising in the green transition.

SCENARIO ANALYSIS
Through a series of scenario studies, the Nordic energy model (ON-TIMES) is used to find the optimal paths to a fossil free shipping industry.

TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT
The project has a special focus on hydrogen and fuel cells in relation to the other low carbon options.

Duration: November 2021 – February 2023

EML team: Kenneth Karlsson, Andrea Marin Radoszynski & Alexandra O’Sullivan Freltoft

Partners: IVL – Svenska Miljöinstitutet

Model: The Open Nordic TIMES model (ON-TIMES) can be found open source in our GitHub repository.

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Energy strategy in Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan means the land of fire and energy resources as natural gas simply sets the country on fire. As the country moves forward new investments in energy and infrastructure is needed.

To ensure an informed decision process Energy Modelling Lab has supported the Government of Azerbaijan in developing and implementing a long-term energy strategy.

Building DK-BioRes

MODELLING
Energy Modelling Lab has developed and implemented a full energy model (TIMES-AZ) for Azerbaijan, connecting all relevant sectors from energy and heating to transport and industry.

SCENARIO ANALYSIS
The model is used for long term energy system and climate policy planning.

TRAINING
Energy Modelling Lab is supporting the Government of Azerbaijan with training in the use of the energy system model.

Duration: November 2020 – November 2021

Team: Kenneth Karlsson, Mikkel Bosack Simonsen, Till ben Brahim & Andrea Marin Radoszynski

Client: Government of Azerbaijan

Model: TIMES-AZ