Author: Ida Græsted Jensen

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Climate neutral agriculture in Denmark

The Danish agricultural sector is facing the green transition and many ideas have been proposed to reach climate-neutral agriculture in Denmark by 2050. In this brief, we suggest two pathways to climate neutrality to follow the general goals of a 70% reduction in 2030 and a 100% reduction in 2050.

70% greenhouse gas reduction by 2030

100% greenhouse gas neutral by 2050

No animal feed import by 2050

Technology-optimistic or technology-independent

The first scenario is a technology-optimistic scenario, while the second scenario to a larger extent can reach the goals without technological development. In both scenarios, a large increase in the forest areas is necessary such that the forest area in 2050 is approximately double the area of today.

In the technology-optimistic scenario, the amount of farm animals can be kept at the same level as today because the biogas and pyrolysis plants can reduce part of the emissions and the forests compensate for the rest of the emissions. In the technology-independent scenario, it is necessary to reduce the amount of farm animals to reach the climate targets.

Key figures

FOREST
1.000.000 ha, roughly 23% of the Danish land mass, must be covered in forest by 2050.

The forestation should happen sooner rather than later so 160.000 – 200.000 ha should be converted into forest already by 2030.

LOW LAND AREAS
100.000 ha of carbon-rich lowland soil should be converted into natural areas by 2030.

All 178.700 ha low land soil must be converted into nature by 2050.

ANIMALS
In a technology-optimistic scenario, with a sharp increase in forest area, animal production can remain the same size as today.

In a technology-independent scenario a 15% reduction in animal production by 2030, and a 30% reduction in 2050 relative to today is necessary.

If the steep forest area does not happen, a further reduction in animal production is necessary.

Read the full analysis

Klimaneutralt dansk landbrug (2021)Download

The model is open-sourced

Make scenarios yourself. Download the full model used for the brief from our GitHub repository.

Duration: 2021

EML-Team: Kenneth Karlsson and Ida Græsted

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Danish Bioresource Model

What is needed for the Danish agriculture and forestry to become climate neutral?
How should the limited Danish area be distributed in the future?
How can we utilize the available Danish biomass resources?

These are some of the tricky questions the Danish bio-resource model (DK-BioRes) can help answering.

If you want to create your own scenarios, the model is available open source in our GitHub repository.

Building DK-BioRes

MODELLING

Energy Modelling Lab has developed the flow-based model DK-BioRes containing all Danish biomass resources from both agriculture, forestry and aquaculture.

The model serves as a foundation for political decisions towards reaching the national climate goals.

The model can be connected to the full national energy model, DK-TIMES.

TRAINING THE USERS

A crucial part of the project is training the analysts from the Danish Energy Agency in using the DK-BioRes model.

Through the series of courses Energy Modelling Lab has been training both regular and super users.

Duration: October 2020 – June 2021

EML team: Ida Græsted Jensen & Alexandra O’Sullivan Freltoft

Client: Danish Energy Agency

Budget: DKK 490.000

Reference: Bodil Harder

Model: The Danish Bioressource Model (DK-BioRes)

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Vietnam’s long-term energy strategy

The Vietnamese economy is growing, and so is the energy demand. As the country moves forward new investments in clean energy and infrastructure are highly needed.

Energy Modelling Lab supports the Vietnamese government in developing and implementing a long-term energy strategy. We have updated and expanded an advanced energy systems model for Vietnam, the TIMES-Vietnam model.

Building DK-BioRes

MODELLING
Energy Modelling Lab has further developed the transport sector in the energy systems model for Vietnam, TIMES-Vietnam.

The model connects all relevant sectors from energy and heating to transport, industry, and health.

SCENARIO ANALYSIS
The model is used for long-term energy systems and climate policy planning. The scenarios show different paths to reach the Vietnamese government’s climate targets.

REPORT
The scenario results serve as a foundation for the development of the Vietnam Energy Outlook report, showing the path ahead for the Vietnamese energy system.

Duration: 2020 – 2022

EML Team: Ida Græsted Jensen, Till ben Brahim and Kenneth Karlsson

Client: This project is part of the Framework contracts with Global Cooperation at the Danish Energy Agency

Collaborators: Ea Energy Analyses, Institute of Energy, E4SMA, Aarhus University

Model: TIMES

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PhD-course in energy modelling

The Technical University of Denmark asked Energy Modelling Lab to help organize and run a Ph.D. course in energy modelling. The title of the course is Introduction to Balmorel.

Throughout the 3-week course, the students gained knowledge of
– Energy systems analysis and scenarios
– Mathematical optimization
– The energy systems model Balmorel

Date: August 2021

EML Team: Ida Græsted Jensen

Client: Technical University of Denmark

Collaborators: Hans Ravn, RAMLOSE EDB

Model: Balmorel

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Training for international energy modellers

Energy Modelling Lab was asked by DTU to conduct training for international energy modellers, resulting in the course Introduction to Balmorel.

Through the 4-week course, the students learned:
– How to do system energy modelling
– To use the Balmorel modelling tool.

The course included visits from the Danish Energy Agency and Ea Energy Analysis. Furthermore, the students went on field trips to Danish Energy and Energy Modelling Lab.

The course was tailored to modellers from developing and growing countries and had 20 participants from five countries. It was taking place at the Technical University of Denmark (DTU), through the Danida Fellowship Centre.

Date: August 2021 – September 2021.

Contact person, EML: Ida Græsted Jensen

Contact, DTU: Marie Münster

Other participants: Ea Energy Analyses, RAMLØSE EDB

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Reducing air pollution saves billions of kroner

When discussing how expensive the green transition becomes for Danish society, it is important to consider more aspects than the investments needed.

Our results show that when looking solely at the saved health costs from the reduction in air pollution, society can save 10 to 20 billion Danish kroner per year.

Several Danish studies estimate the cost of transition to be approximately 13 to 26 billion Danish kroner a year from 2025 to the year when the transition is complete. These costs often do not include savings for society in terms of e.g., less air pollution.

Read the full analysis (Danish):

Download

EML Notat nr. 1 “Husk Helbredsomkostningerne”

EML Team: Kenneth Karlsson and Ida Græsted

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Adding carbon capture to TIMES-DK

We have been adding carbon capture to TIMES-DK as it is a key piece in the future energy puzzle to capture carbon. CO2 is captured directly from the air, from industry chimneys, or in agriculture. This carbon can be used for two things. Either you can produce CO2-neutral fuels through Power2X technologies. Alternatively, the CO2 can be stored in the ground.

The project investigates the cost, potential, and limitations of the carbon streams.

Building DK-BioRes

MODELLING
The new technologies, which can deliver and utilize carbon capture, were added to the Danish Energy System Model (TIMES-DK). This allows the model to run scenarios that achieve long-term climate neutrality.

Duration: 2020

EML contact: Kenneth Karlsson

Model: The Danish Energy System Model (TIMES-DK)