Category: Scenario analysis

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Recommendations for Investments in New Technologies

Photo of Arlington illustrating the TIMES-Arlington model that Brightcore can use to make recommendations for investments in new technologies.
Photo of Arlington illustrating the TIMES-Arlington model that Brightcore can use to make recommendations for investments in new technologies.

The American company Brightcore Energy has assigned EML to build a tailored energy systems model, the TIMES-Arlington model. The company can use the model to make recommendations for investments in new technologies regarding renewing and optimizing energy supply.

The model represents a school’s heating and cooling systems and an adjacent neighborhood in Arlington, Massachusetts. At the outset, the systems are supplied by only natural gas (main source) and some electricity. The buildings have individual AC units.

EML has considered local resources such as river and sewage water. In numerous scenarios, we have tested production, storage, and grid capacities, and space heat, space cooling, and hot water production in different combinations of technologies.

Our initial analysis has shown that a mix of geothermal and air-source pumps is the most feasible and lowest-cost solution for a future system.

Total discounted costs of systems

The analysis included the costs of grid expansion and the building of new pipes. Furthermore, we tested the optimal percentage of residential houses to be connected to the different kinds of pumps. We could demonstrate a difference of around 180.000 USD of total discounted costs of systems between tested mixes.

In addition to total system costs of different technology mixes, our analysis included CapEx breakdowns and estimates of primary energy supply and final energy consumption.

The TIMES-Arlington model is set to optimize the system for the milestone years 2024, 2030, 2040, and 2050.

Load profiles and accurate system sizing

Aiming to minimize computational time, we selected eight representative weeks based on load profiles. Each selected week reflects the load behavior of a specific season. The resulting time series contains 1344 time slices that cover all four seasons, distinguish between weekdays and non-weekdays, and represent 24 hours per day.

This method captures essential events to ensure accurate system sizing according to the load demands.

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MODELLING

The TIMES-Arlington model is developed using the TIMES energy systems modelling framework. It represents a school’s heating and cooling systems and an adjacent neighbourhood in Arlington, US.

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SCENARIOS

We have tested production, storage, and grid capacities, and space heat, space cooling, and hot water production in scenarios with different combinations of technologies.

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REPORT

In addition to total discounted system costs of different technology mixes, our analysis included CapEx breakdowns and estimates of primary energy supply and final energy consumption.

Client: Brightcore Energy

EML-team: Ida Græsted Jensen, Andrea Marian Radozynski, and Till ben Brahim

Duration: October 2024 – January 2025

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Developing District Heating in Trollhättan

Illustration of developing district heating in Trollhättan

Trollhättan Energi is developing district heating in Trollhättan and has assigned EML to make a customized energy systems model, the TIMES-TE model. The model is used to analyze existing district heating operations, explore options for new technologies, and identify cost-optimal solutions.

Consequently, EML has generated about 30 scenarios, allowing for an in-depth analysis and testing of multiple options. The model data spans the period 2027- 2040. Among the results of the analysis were recommendations for phasing out existing biomass-based plants over time, investing in heat pump technology, and not reinvesting in new CHP plants.

Identifying waste heat potential

Trollhättan Energi provides heating to 18,000 homes and 300 companies in the Swedish city of Trollhättan. By 2030, Trollhättan Energi’s energy production should be fossil-free.

The TIMES-TE model has a representation of available energy resources, including not yet exploited sources such as wastewater. Waste heat potential in Trollhättan was identified using registers of all municipal activities and mapping through GIS modelling.

The TIMES-TE model can be regularly updated and used as a tool for continuous strategic energy planning, dovetailing system developments and financial planning.

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MODELLING

EML used the TIMES energy systems modelling framework to develop a customized model of the district heating network in Trollhättan, the TIMES-TE model.

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SCENARIOS

An analysis of about 30 scenarios testing different assumptions, technology options, and targets was accomplished.

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REPORTING

We produced a comprehensive report of the results that supported the decision-making of the management of Trollhättan Energi.

Client: Trollhättan Energi

Partner and project lead: Swedish Environmental Research Institute (IVL) / Kristina Lygnerud

EML Team: Kenneth Karlsson, Till ben Brahim, Andrea Radoszynski

Duration: April – October 2024

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Modelling Gothenburg City energy system

Cities account for about 66 pct. of the total final energy consumption and more than 75pct. of global CO2 emissions. Subsequently, the green transition of city energy systems is key to reaching climate targets. We are supervising a PhD project focusing on city energy planning and modelling the Gothenburg city energy system as a case study.

The PhD is entitled “Policy-driven long-term development of city energy systems” and written by Kushagra Gupta at Chalmers University of Technology, Sweden.

The objectives of the research

  • To investigate how the city’s energy plans drive the long-term development of the city’s energy system.
  • To explore how the city energy plans coordinate with the national climate targets from a long-term perspective.
  • To identify optimal pathways for allocating resources to competing sectors during the transition.

Methodology

We have built a tailored energy systems model, the TIMES-NE city model. The model allows us to investigate the impact of the city energy plan on the long-term energy systems development.

The model represents a Northern European city setting. It’s based on the TIMES modeling framework developed and maintained by the IEA-ETSAP (International Energy Agency – The Energy Technology Systems Analysis Program).

The model has a representation of developments in the supply and demand side of the heating, electricity, and transportation sectors. The time horizon is from 2018-2050. The temporal resolution of the model is 12*24 to incorporate seasonal and hourly variations. The spatial boundary covers the area within the control of the municipal authorities. The city is further divided into multiple segments based on demographics.

Novelty of the study

The novelty of the study lies in adopting an integrated model approach. This approach allows for exploring intra- and inter-sectorial linkages.

Furthermore, this study explores the supply and demand side whereas most studies focus on either the supply or demand side. Subsequently, it enables us to account for the competition of resources among sectors.

Another important characteristic of this modelling study is the inclusion of customer perspective in investment decisions.

Scenarios

We are developing four scenarios for our analysis:

1) The reference scenario (REF) extends the base year model over the modelling time horizon. Already adopted national policy instruments such as energy and carbon tax, reduction obligations for the transport sector are included in the reference scenario. No additional policy measures or system improvements take place. Historical trends are projected into the future to evaluate the demands and shape a reference energy system.

2) The City Energy Plan scenario (CEP), in which the main goals identified under the Gothenburg Energy Plan 2021-2030 are applied and tested.

3) Integrated National Energy and Climate Plan (INEP), in which the national climate targets for Sweden are translated into targets for the city.

4) EU-Effort Sharing regulation (EU-ESR), Similar to INEP, in this scenario, Sweden’s commitment to EU-ESR is translated into climate targets for the city.

Gothenburg Energy Plan

The purpose of the energy plan is to promote the implementation of measures that lead to the city of Gothenburg reaching the environmental goal for the climate in the City’s Environmental and Climate Program 2021-2030.

The environmental and climate program 2021-2030 is the starting point for the energy plan. The plan describes how the City of Gothenburg will work to achieve the energy-related goals in the program.

Within the Gothenburg energy plan, the city has interim goals for the climate:

· The city of Gothenburg reduces energy use in homes and premises.

· The City of Gothenburg only produces energy from renewable sources.

· The city of Gothenburg reduces the climate impact of transport.

· The City of Gothenburg reduces the climate impact of purchasing.

The plans cover the energy produced or used within the municipal geographic area, the energy produced by the city of Gothenburg, and the energy used by municipality employees when traveling outside.

Institution: Chalmers University of Technology, Sweden

University Supervisor: Professor Erik Ahlgren, Department of Space, Earth and Environment

PhD student: Kushagra Gupta EML-team: Kenneth Karlsson

Duration: 2021-2026

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Improving the competitiveness of district energy

We have made a quantitative impact assessment related to load distribution for Varmelast. The impact assessment is part of the project Load Distribution based on Contract Prices. The aim of the project is improving the competitiveness of district heating.

Varmelast handles load dispatching of heat production in the greater Copenhagen area. Varmelast is organized as a cooperation between the three largest municipally owned heating companies in the Copenhagen metropolitan area: CTR, VEKS, and HOFOR.

Varmelast has published the EML report on Varmelast.dk.

One fundamental way of improving the competitiveness of district heating is to reform the load distribution system to ensure the lowest possible heating prices. Our analysis focused on the pricing of load distribution, comparing the advantages of different pricing systems.

Comparing load distribution systems

We based the assessment on the model TIMES-Varmelast. TIMES-Varmelast is an optimization model we built and tailored based on the internationally recognized TIMES modelling framework.

In the model, a load distribution system based on the contract prices is tested and compared with the existing system load distribution system based on minimizing the total costs of running the plants (e.g., fuel costs and revenue from the sale of electricity which are not part of the heating contract). 

The analysis examines the total variable heat payment in 2030 under the two load distribution systems.  The purpose was to contribute to understanding how changes in load distribution, and design of future contracts can affect the future heat price and production. Likewise, we also wished to gain insights into how electricity price assumptions and fuel price assumptions can affect future heat prices and production.

The TIMES-Varmelast model

The TIMES-Varmelast model is solved on an hourly level (8760 hours). We equipped it with a detailed representation of the greater Copenhagen district heating area. The model features 98 regions representing relevant district heating supply, transmission, and demand areas.

TIMES-Varmelast was developed from scratch within a few weeks by EML. The successful result has demonstrated the strength and flexibility of the TIMES modelling framework. Furthermore, we confirmed our ability to apply the TIMES framework quickly to any complex energy system case.

Key takeaways

  • Adopting the format of price-based contracts for load distribution results in substantial reductions in the costs and lower prices of district heating compared to cost-based load distribution.
  • Operating the format of price-based contracts for load distribution results in using the cheapest production plant at any given time.
  • Using the format of price-based contracts for load distribution results in considerable change in the district heating production. The impact includes decreased production from thermal plants while production from heat pumps and electric boilers increases.
  • The format of price-based contracts for load distribution is more robust to changes in electricity prices.

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Modelling

We used the TIMES modelling framework to build the TIMES-Varmelast model for load distribution with different pricing systems, hourly time resolution, and detailed representation of the Greater Copenhagen district heating area.

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Scenarios

We developed scenarios comparing price-based contracts for load distribution to the existing load distribution system (based on total costs) and ran sensitivity analyses.

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Reporting

We produced the report “Contract Price-based Load Distribution. Analysis of the economic implication of load distribution based on contract prices.”

Client: Varmelast

Reference: Peter Folke

EML Team: Ida Græsted Jensen, Kristoffer Steen Andersen, Julius Lindberg Steensberg

Duration: June-September, 2024

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Modelling the Water-energy-food Nexus

photo of a sunflower field by small river

We are hosting and supervising PhD student Daniele Mosso for one year. Daniele Mosso is doing his PhD at Politecnico di Torino. He is focusing on developing tools to modelling the water-energy-food nexus. The objective is to answer the following question: To what extent can energy be produced without significantly harming natural resources and related sectors?

Daniele Mosso spent the initial period of his PhD examining the major factors affecting the sustainability of energy systems. He concluded that land use, or the consumption of natural resources, is a major issue.

Limitations of existing models

Meanwhile, the existing Energy System Optimization Models (ESOMs) have limitations concerning sustainability and environmental aspects. The limitations can be overcome in several ways. Based on his initial research, Daniele Mosso opted to develop a tool to represent the sectors of agriculture, forestry, and land use (AFOLU) in an ESOM. The tool should make it possible to account for land and water consumption and related emissions.

Subsequently, the research of Daniele Mosso is in line with a new research project Energy Modelling Lab launched recently. The aim is to develop a prototype module representing the AFOLU sector for the TIMES modelling framework. The TIMES model is an energy system optimization model.

Exploring a soft-linking methodology

Furthermore, Daniele Mosso plans to devote the last part of his PhD to exploring a soft-linking methodology. One possibility is direct coupling with an integrated assessment model (IAM) representing natural resources.

At Politecnico di Torino, Daniele Mosso is a member of the MAHTEP Group (Modeling of Advanced Heat Transfer and Energy Problems). It’s a research team established at the end of 2019.

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Modelling

We will develop a prototype module representing the AFOLU sector for the TIMES modelling framework.

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Scenarios

We will test scenarios of the impacts of energy consumption of the AFOLU sector.

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Publication

The research is part of a PhD to be finalized in 2026.

Institution: Politecnico di Torino, Professor Laura Savoldi

EML-team: Daniele Mosso, Ida Græsted Jensen

Duration: 2024-2025

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Developing scenarios for CONCITO

We have contributed to developing scenarios for CONCITO, a major Danish green think tank. CONCITO has analyzed the scenarios in the report The Importance of Agriculture for Future Land Use (Jordbrugets Betydning for Fremtidens Arealanvendelse), published in May 2024.

The scenarios represent different visions of land use in Denmark. The scenarios consider major concerns regarding sustainability, climate neutrality, and natural resources. 

Consequently, the scenarios explore the potential of a substantial increase in plant-based food production and a corresponding livestock decrease. The impact of such measures on the economy and the well-being of the Danish population has also been explored. 

The set target for the scenarios is to keep contributing to global food production on the present scale. The set target amounts to producing about 22 trillion kilojoules, feeding about 22 million people by 2050. 

Bio-Resources of Denmark 

We used the model for Denmark’s bioresources, DK-BioRes. Energy Modelling Lab developed this model for the Danish Energy Agency in 2021. We have updated and tailored the model to meet the needs of CONCITO. The model contains data on Denmark’s bioresources, i.e., agricultural land, forests, natural areas, and aquaculture. 

The model and the data sources used are available on GitHub. 

Based on the input on crop distribution, livestock, land distribution, and desired applied technologies that the model receives, it can analyze how biomass flows through a network of processes. The results include the final production, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions. 

Potential pathways 

The model can generate scenarios showing the pathway to a specific target. For the CONCITO scenarios, the set target is that the Danish agricultural sector keeps contributing to global food production on the present scale relative to the global population growth.

The scenarios generated show which kind and quantities of crops and livestock production could meet the target. They also show the land use needed. The non-edible bi-products such as straw are also included in the calculations of final material production. 

In general, the focus of CONCITO in transforming the food system is to ensure sufficient healthy food in the least space possible with the least greenhouse gas emissions and negative impact on nature, the environment, and animal welfare. 

During 2024, CONCITO is running the project Rethink Denmark with a special focus on land use.

Open-access model 

The DK-BioRes model was developed under the program of the Bioenergy Taskforce. The model is calibrated to use 2019 as the base year. The data used are from Statistics Denmark. For the CONCITO scenarios, data on calories for edible products have been added to the model. 

The DK-BioRes is built in Excel and is an open-access and open-source model. The model and the data sources used are available on GitHub. 

Energy Model Lab has also developed a new and updated version of the DK-BioRes model, tailored to meet requirements from the Climate Council. We handed the model over to the Climate Council in March 2024. 

Overview of the DK-BioRes model:

 

Documentation report

The documentation report on the scenarios, “The Danish Bio Ressource”, is available in Danish only.

DEN DANSKE BIORESSOURCEDownload

Client: CONCITO 

Budget: DKK 160.000,00 

EML-team: Ida Græsted 

Duration: Spring 2024 

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Hydrogen fuel cells in shipping

Title of article on green fuel cells in shipping

It’s necessary to ban the use of fossil fuels to complete the green transition in shipping. To put it short, this is the main finding of our research study: “Hydrogen fuel cells in shipping: A policy case study of Denmark, Norway, and Sweden”. The study resulted from a collaboration with colleagues in Iceland. It was published in the leading journal Marine Policy (May 2024).

The study aims to identify the policy instruments needed to accelerate the uptake of hydrogen fuel cells for the shipping industries in Denmark, Norway, and Sweden.

Hydrogen fuel cells are promising for reducing emissions from shipping. However, their adoption is limited by high costs, lack of regulations, and lack of infrastructure. This is why there is a need for policies that spur investments in hydrogen fuel cells.

The three policy packages

Together with our fellow researchers, we tested three policy packages with different degrees of ambition (low, medium, and high). Our findings indicated that the proposed taxes on CO2 emissions and fossil fuels can help drive the transition away from fossil fuels. Meanwhile, the complete transition requires a ban on the use of fossil fuels.

The three policy packages were formulated based on discussions during workshops with key stakeholders from Nordic Shipping. During the workshops, we also learned that the participants are paying high attention to a “chicken and egg” paradox: Without the demand for green hydrogen, no supply, and vice versa. This has not been reflected in previous studies.

Correspondingly, a coordinated regional approach and cross-sector and cross-industry collaboration are needed. Otherwise, we cannot overcome the paradox and help balance the supply and demand for Nordic shipping

Modelling

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MODEL

We used the TIMES-NEU model, an economic model generator for energy systems, to evaluate the three different policy packages. EML has developed the TIMES-NEU model.

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SCENARIOS

Estimated total fuel consumption in PJ/year; CO2 emissions by fuel in thousand tons of CO2 emissions/year; revenue from the tax on fossil fuels in million Euros/year; ferry segment fuel consumption in PJ/year.

RESULTS

The main finding was that policies are needed to spur investments. Meanwhile, it’s necessary to ban fossil fuels to complete the green transition of shipping.

Other scenarios included in the study show estimated CAPEX and OPEX in million Euros/year, estimated CAPEX and OPEX for the ferry segment in million, and estimated CAPEX and OPEX of the mandate of ferries to use hydrogen in comparison to the policy packages in million Euros/year.

The research study is part of the HOPE Project: The authors of the article are:
Mauricio Latapí, Brynhildur Davidsdottir, David Cook, Lara Johannsdottir, MBA, Ph.D., Andrea Marin Radoszynski, and Kenneth Karlsson.

We are grateful for the financial support towards the HOPE project provided by the following organizations: the Nordic Energy Research, the Norwegian Research Council, the Swedish Transport Administration, the Icelandic Centre for Research, Business Finland, the Danish Energy Agency, Stena Rederi AB, and PowerCell Sweden AB.

EML Team: Andrea Marin Radoszynski and Kenneth Karlsson

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Supporting District Energy Decarbonization

Photo of Copenhill thermal power plant with visible smoke

Energy Modelling Lab has joined TEN21, a collaboration platform supporting district energy decarbonization. We are organized by the Swedish Environmental Research Institute (IVL) as a collaboration between experts across the district energy value chain. The name reflects our focus: Thermal Energy Networks for 21 Degrees of Indoor Comfort, TEN21.

Building heating and cooling account for a substantial part of energy consumption and total CO2 emissions. So far, only 20% of the heating and cooling provided to European Union buildings is produced using green energy. In comparison, research has shown that 35% of the heating and cooling demand in the EU could be met by using waste heat, an asset with limited use today.

Therefore, advancing and supporting district energy decarbonization is important for reaching the net-zero emissions goal.

Services

The team of TEN21 has the experience, network, and expertise to deliver the services of

  • Committing local authorities and stakeholders
  • Provide a holistic analysis of local district energy systems and resources
  • Identify least-cost and emission solutions using the most feasible technologies
  • Design roadmaps and identify replicable and bankable investment projects (we identify what to invest in, how large the installation should be, when in time it should be realized, and when existing assets should be retired)
  • Develop models for business and finance

Approach

We tailor the energy system model TIMES to analyze city-level district energy systems. Using the model enables us to process all data on energy production, consumption, and resources as well as data on buildings, industries, transportation, land use, and other studied locations. Based on the analysis we study different scenarios and identify the optimal solutions.

Duration: April 2021 – ongoing

Project: TEN21

Partners: Sweedish Environmental Research Institute, Resourceful Futures, EURAC Research, NODA Intelligent Systems, REWARDHeat

Energy Modelling Lab Contact: Kenneth Karlsson and Ida Græsted Jensen

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Ancillary services costs in Sweden

illustration of ancillary services

We have been assigned by the Danish company Hybrid Greentech to develop a long-term forecast of ancillary services costs in Sweden. The forecast spans until 2050. At present, the electrification drive is inevitably leading to a surge in power demand. Consequently, a fundamental reconfiguration of our energy infrastructure is taking place. It must incorporate both intermittent renewables, flexible electricity demand, and the provision of ancillary services. 

So far, ancillary services have often been the unsung heroes of the power sector as these essential support systems ensure grid reliability. To make the forecast, we integrated and updated previous investigations into power production and demand. 

Potential innovative technologies

We took into consideration the production of green hydrogen in the Nordics. The flexibility of hydrogen production in the Nordics could be an important factor in the ancillary services market since a reduction of this production would most likely result in wider use of battery technologies. 

Potential innovative technologies could also have a high impact on the market for ancillary services. For example, the increasing number of electric vehicles means a large increase in power consumption. This increase, if managed flexibly, could potentially contain a total battery capacity of 250 GWh with a charging capacity of 50 GW. Such a capacity could support all the balancing requirements in all of Sweden if the potential is fully utilized. 

Electricity prices 

A long-term forecast of electricity production, consumption, and prices in Sweden was part of the analysis. In general, from 2020 to 2030 Sweden is expected to be a net exporter of electricity and from 2035 and onwards to be a net importer. Concerning consumption, an increase of about 80% in consumption from industry from 2020 to 2050 is expected. 

According to modelling results, the present price difference between the two Northern and the two Southern regions will decrease over time. 

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Modelling

We based our forecast of ancillary services costs on a qualitative assessment of research projects made by EML, assessing ancillary services markets in the TIMES models and other international research studies on the topic.

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Analysis

We analyzed future power demand, the flexibility of electricity-demanding technologies in the power spot market, and the development of renewable intermittent technologies based on the integrated assessment model TIMES-NEU, a comprehensive energy system model covering the entire Northern European energy system. 

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Results 

All results and calculations were presented in a comprehensive report to Hybrid Greentech. 

Duration: September 2023 

EML-Team: Mikkel Bosack Simonsen, Julius Lindberg Steensberg,  Kenneth Karlsson and Ida Græsted Jensen

Client: Hybrid Greentech 

Reference: Anton Osadchi

Models: TIMES-NEU and TIMES-DK 

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Early Action on Energy Efficiency

Energy Modelling Lab has contributed to the background study “The Value of Early Action on Energy Efficiency”. The study is focusing on buildings and industries. We identified key energy efficiency messages that we presented at the IEA Energy Efficiency Conference 2022 (see full presentation below). The conference took place in the Danish city of Sonderborg.

In collaboration with our partners, we examined the importance of early action on energy efficiency. We considered the costs of delayed progress. Furthermore, we looked into the benefits of achieving energy efficiency milestones on the way to reaching net zero emissions by 2050. The study was contracted by the International Energy Agency and financed by Danfoss.

Key findings on early action

Early action matters. A low energy efficiency pathway would increase final energy consumption by 39%. CO2 emissions increase by 16% if action is delayed by 10 years.

Energy efficiency is the most effective measure to quickly improve energy security and lower electricity prices.

Reduced air pollution in a global net zero emissions scenario can reduce the cost of global health impacts by almost €500 bn in 2030.

Water heaters provide the biggest shifting potential and thereby CO2 emission reductions. Due to high savings and load-shifting potential, water heaters should be one of the first products to be digitized.

In process industries maintenance and simple upgrade of process plants can save 5 to 10% with very short payback time.

The use of electromagnetic sources for process heat is in an early stage but holds promising potential for saving energy with a factor of 10 or more.

We used the IEA’s Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario as a central focus and reference case for the analysis. Correspondingly, we focused on the implications and impacts of action within this decade, in all major energy-using regions globally.

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Scenario analyses

We analyzed scenarios of low energy efficiency and high energy efficiency and estimated the accumulated final energy consumption, CO2 emissions, and air pollution.

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Results

We presented the key findings at the International Energy Agency (IEA) Energy Efficiency Conference 2022 in the Danish city of Sønderborg.

Presentation IEA Energy Efficiency Conference 2022Download

Duration: January-April 2022

Client: International Energy Agency (IEA) and Danfoss

Budget: DKK 596,000

Partners: Energiforsk, Viegand Maagøe

Reference: Markus Wråke, CEO, Energiforsk

EML team: Kenneth Karlsson and Ida Græsted Jensen