The past year has been very active and productive as we show in our Newsletter Winter 2024. We have created the TIMES-KUWAIT model and further developed the TIMES-Vietnam, TIMES-Jordan, and TIMES-NEU models. The latter covers Northern Europe. We have also embarked on several research projects. One focuses on PtX, another on modelling the AFOLU sector. A third project is focusing on supporting local authorities to speed up the green transition.
Inspired by community
We were pleased to attend the Semi-annual ETSAP meeting in Turin in November. Our consultant Till Ben Brahim made a presentation on the possibility for the Nordic countries, especially Denmark, to become a green hub for the export of green hydrogen and electricity to Europe. He showed scenarios generated by the TIMES-NEU model that we have used to analyze future energy markets in the Nordics.
Furthermore, we had the opportunity to network and agree with colleagues from Italy, Belgium, and the Nordic countries to team up regularly and share results from our work.
Creating the TIMES-KUWAIT model
We have contributed to the first steps of strategic energy planning in Kuwait as consultants on the project Developing Kuwait’s Long-Term Climate Pathways. In the first place, we developed a database for energy and GHG emissions. Next, we created the TIMES-KUWAIT model and generated different scenarios including rapid expansion of the renewable fuel market and reduced exports.
The government of Kuwait has pledged to reach net-zero emissions in the oil and gas sector by 2050 and by 2060 for the whole country.
Best location of PtXplants
As part of MissionGreenFuels, EML is collaborating with 13 partners on the PtX Sector Coupling and Life Cycle Assessment Project. The expected result is to create better ways to determine optimal ways of integrating PtX into the green transition. To this end, we are developing and updating the TIMES-NEU model.
During the past half year we have developed new features for the TIMES model framework, dived into PtX and biogas, and begun the development of a new clean model structure.
Inspired by community
The ETSAP meetup for TIMES-modellers in New York was a great inspiration. During the conference we learn of a UN-database that contains data for all countries of the world. So our new dream is to use the database to automate the model creation and build TIMES-models for all countries in the world.
Read more about the vision in the full newsletter below.
Maabjerg Bioenergy in Holstebro, Denmark.
New biogas-module
Biogas will play an increasing role in the Danish energy system. Therefore we have developed a new biogas module for the Danish Energy Agency, to ensure a detailed representation of biogas in their future mode work.
To analyse the demand and supply of green hydrogen and other synthetic fuels, we have developed a new model of Northern Europe.
The model is a combined TIMES-model that includes Denmark, Sweden, Norway, Germany, and Poland. The model also includes external trade-links to UK, Belgium, and the Netherlands.
We hope to publish some results from the analysis soon.
If you want to read the full newsletter, you can find it here:
In this ETSAP Newsletter Spring 2022, we share the activities that we have carried out as an active member of the modelling community. As part of the ETSAP community, Energy Modelling Lab is developing the TIMES model framework, using it for a range of projects, and sharing our experiences within the network.
PROJECTS AROUND THE GLOBE
Energy Modelling Lab has worked on models for countries around the world.
In the Nordic countries, we have both investigated paths to a climate-neutral future and dived into the shipping industry, to investigate which fuels will power the future sea transport.
In Vietnam, we have supported the local modelling team, and in Azerbaijan, we have built a full-country model from scratch, facilitated workshops with the key stakeholders with the key stakeholder in energy planning in the country, and trained local modelers to run the model.
New features in TIMES-DK
Inspired by the discussions at the ETSAP meeting in Oslo 2021, we have added energy storage in TIMES-DK.
Additionally, we have added different ancillary services to the model, such as balancing the electricity grid when the demand is greater than the supply.
Giving back to the community
We are always happy to participate in the ETSAP-community activities. After a long period of webinars, it was a relief to join the biannual ETSAP meeting in Oslo in November 2021.
Over the past year, we have also expanded the modelling community by training two new employees in the TIMES-model framework. Other than that we have supported a bachelor student from the University of Southern Denmark in a project on energy islands, three students from the Technical University of Denmark in a project on German hydrogen demand, and a Swedish PhD student on a new model of Gothenburg.
The community is growing, one modeler at a time.
If you want to read the full newsletter, you can find it here:
IEA (International Energy Agency) Technology Collaboration Programme ETSAP (Energy Technology Systems Analysis Program) – iea-etsap.org
EML is an active member of the ETSAP community. EML has and continues to contribute to the ETSAP community in 2020 and 2021. We continue the Danish collaboration and participation at the IEA-ETSAP, Annex X to XIV under the new Annex XV. Our partners and consultants are actively developing TIMES models in several projects, regularly attend ETSAP’s biannual workshops and webinars, took VEDA-TIMES training, were and will continue teaching energy systems analysis courses at the post-graduate level by deploying the TIMES framework, develop auxiliary tools to improve pre-and post-processing tasks and successfully migrated from VEDA1 to VEDA2 during ongoing projects.
The work builds on the NETP projects by complementing the cost-effective pathways with a deeper analysis of uncertainty and alternative socio-technical framework conditions. This includes policy, technology shifts, economic outlook, developments in other countries and other societal changes that have an impact on the Nordic region – DK, FI ,IS ,NO and SE.
This project develops an independent study of the Ukrainian energy system, which analyses development scenarios for input to national energy strategy documents and provides policy recommendations to achieve national energy and climate goals. Furthermore, the modelling results of this project can also be used to contribute to the National Energy and Climate Change Plan for the period 2021-2030 (NECP).
The objective of the project is that Vietnam’s energy system becomes more sustainable through the implementation of cost-optimized policy and planning by assisting MOIT and EREA to commission, develop, and analyze comprehensive long-term energy scenarios.
This technical assistance tackles the needs of Azerbaijan to review and update the Long-Term Energy Strategy (LTES) in light of the recent situation in AZ. Another important focus in this technical assistance is to build up capacity in Azerbaijan to continue the work with LTES and in general to work with energy system analysis as a method for planning future investments and points of focus.
Meetings
Biannual workshops
The biannual workshops focus on the practice of modelling and use of ETSAP tools e.g. MARKAL/TIMES modelling frameworks, participation in training activities, and collaboration in projects related to the improvement of ETSAP tools. In general, the contribution to these workshops shall be based on current and future projects, particularly within EU, Nordic, and Danish research programs – by involving PhD students from Danish universities.
Our director and partners participated in several IEA-ETSAP semi-annual meetings over the last years:
For all past and coming workshops please see here.
Webinars
Members of EML attended several ETSAP webinars:
2020-11-26: How to build a TIMES model from scratch
2020-12-10: Modelling clean energy transitions: approaches and tools for the World Energy Outlook and the Energy Technology Perspectives
2021-01-21: Developing and using TIMES models with git, GitHub, and VEDA
2021-02-23: ETSAP webinar: High temporal and spatial resolution modelling in TIMES models
2021-03-30: Stochastic Modelling of VRES in TIMES and Modelling high VRES with hourly TS resolution, unit commitment, dispatch, and capacity expansion in TIMES
Training
Ida participated in the 3 day ETSAP VEDA-Times web training.
2020-12-09 to 2020-12-11: Basic Training Course on VEDA-TIMES, Web Training by Maurizio Gargiulo from E4SMA
EML is teaching energy system modelling on the basis of the TIMES modelling framework. In the current term, Mikkel and Kenneth are offering the course TIMES-DK modelling to graduate students at SDU. The duration is approx. 20 weeks from February to June 2021.
Background
The students are given insights into the TIMES modelling framework and will deploy the Danish model TIMES-DK to assess the Danish energy systems within the scope of their assignments.
Objectives
The course aims to provide the students with knowledge and abilities to work in the TIMES framework, which includes but is not limited to the following topics:
Sector coupling of the full energy system
Time aspect in the making of energy system assessment
Resource barriers such as bioenergy, wind, solar, and fossil potentials
Carbon budgets and national GHG targets
Method
Weekly lectures combined with practical assignments and project work in groups. The results of case works are an integrated part of the teaching and will be presented and evaluated during the course.
Auxilliary tools
At EML we develop several auxiliary tools. Currently, we are working on two tools, one to include biomass potentials for energy use in our analysis and the other to seamlessly aggregate and transmit data from a VEDA batch export Excel file to our websites hosted by Tokni:
A biomass model – for more information contact Ida
Within the Nordic Clean Energy Scenarios (NCES2020) project EML migrated the development of the open-source Nordic TIMES model (ON-TIMES) from VEDA1 to VEDA2. It includes all of the 5 Nordic countries, i.e. Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden and serves the purpose of informing decision-makers and supporting the common Nordic commitment to carbon neutrality through strong, collaborative Nordic research and analysis.
