There is a great flurry of activity to report on in our Newsletter 2024. As a new development, we have strengthened our expertise in building models representing local entities such as district heating networks, municipalities, islands, and building complexes.
Furthermore, we have continued developing a new module for the TIMES Modelling Framework representing the AFOLU sector (Agriculture, Forestry, Land Use). We have also continued to collaborate on the research projects MissionGreenFuels and SpeedLocal.
In total, we have been working on no less than 12 models. We have built four new TIMES models, updated and further developed three models, started working on two models, and supervised the creation of three models.
This collective research paper proposes a novel framework to be applied when modelling hydrogen in sector-coupled energy systems.
Hydrogen is expected to play a key role in achieving a carbon-neutral energy system in the future. Therefore, the modelling of hydrogen is becoming an increasingly integrated part of sector-coupled energy system modelling tools. However, results from different models and scenarios show different needs for hydrogen infrastructure and the deployment of electrolyzers. There is, therefore, an urgent need for transparent communication of the main modelling features and input data that can impact the results related to hydrogen production in national energy systems.
The paper was posted on SSRN, on December 21, 2024.
EML-Team: Kenneth Karlsson and Andrea Marin Radoszynski
Collaborators: Marie Münster, DTU; Rasmus Bramstoft, DTU; Lars Bregnbæk, Nicolas Campion, DTU; Mathias Kjærgård Christensen, and Dimitrios Eleftheriou, Christos Koumparakis, DTU; Ioannis Kountouris, DTU; Jakob Zinck Thellufsen, Aalborg University; Meng Yuan, Aalborg University, and Henrik Lund, Aalborg University.
We have co-authored the article City Energy Planning: Modeling Long-Term Strategies under System Uncertainties. The article was published in Energy Strategy Reviews, Volume 56, November 2024.
The study explores the role of city energy plans on future cost-efficient energy systems. A technology-rich cost-optimization model was developed using TIMES with intra-sectoral and inter-sectoral interactions and applied to the Gothenburg energy system.
The model outcomes are investigated with the application of policy-driven scenarios. The model is further tested under system uncertainties and price sensitivities identified using a participatory approach.
Collaborators: Professor Erik Ahlgren, Department of Space, Earth, and Environment, and PhD student Kushagra Gupta, Chalmers University of Technology, Sweden
We have made a quantitative impact assessment related to load distribution for Varmelast. The impact assessment is part of the project Load Distribution based on Contract Prices. The project aims to improve the competitiveness of district heating.
Varmelast has published the EML report on Varmelast.dk.
We have supported the Report, Denmark’s Climate Targets 2050, published by the Danish Climate Council in August 2024. The Report contains an analysis of four scenarios for the future of Denmark. The scenarios have been generated using the DK-BioRes model as one of the tools.
Energy Modelling Lab developed the DK-BioRes model in 2021 as a project under the Danish Energy Agency. We have updated the model and integrated new technologies. We have also built up the capacity of the experts of the Danish Climate Council to use the model.
The Power Decisions Game provides a first-of-its-kind open-source infrastructure. It allows non-modellers to explore the impact of key decisions and preferences on the design of the future European power system. Furthermore, it provides insights into the consequences of short-sighted decision-making. The game can be used to facilitate policy-science discussions.
The game is based on more than 1700 scenarios. The scenarios have been run through an open-source and accessible, yet technologically detailed, myopic energy system optimization model for the electricity supply in the EU27 + 3.
The game allows the user to take the role of a decision-maker and make decisions in 2020, 2030, and 2040 regarding the usage of CCS, biomass imports, cross-border electricity transmission, and the pace of emission reductions.
The user is then presented with the economic, social, and environmental impacts of these choices. These impacts are, for example, measured and illustrated in the development of accumulated CO2 emissions per capita, levelised cost of electricity, and investment need per citizen.
Project:REEEM (Role of Technologies in an Energy-Efficient Economy – Model-based analysis of Policy Measures and transformation pathways to a Sustainable Energy System)
Viet Nam Energy Outlook Report 2023 shows that the country is working steadfastly to reach net zero by 2050. Simultaneously, the country faces the challenge of a fast-growing economy and a huge increase in electricity demand.
One of the keys to this successful development is strategic energy planning. Subsequently, the Vietnamese government uses the TIMES-Vietnam energy systems model and the Balmorel-Vietnam for decision-making.
We have supported the development of the TIMES-Vietnam model for almost 10 years through our engagements in the Partnership Programme between Viet Nam and Denmark, headed by the Danish Energy Agency.
Regarding the Outlook Report, we have developed scenarios for the analyses. We have also assisted the Vietnamese authorities in building up their planning capacities. To this end, we have updated the technology catalog. The catalog has been integrated into the TIMES-VNM model. It includes technologies not yet being used in Viet Nam.
Some of the key takeaways of the Viet Nam Energy Outlook Report are
• The green energy transition is cost-efficient for Viet Nam • A steady increase in renewable energy investments is required from today • Energy efficiency is a cost-effective option to reach the net-zero target
We have contributed to developing scenarios for CONCITO, a major Danish green think tank, and documented the work in the report “The Danish Bioresource”. CONCITO has analyzed the scenarios in the report The Importance of Agriculture for Future Land Use (Jordbrugets Betydning for Fremtidens Arealanvendelse), published in May 2024.
The scenarios represent different visions of land use in Denmark. The scenarios consider major concerns regarding sustainability, climate neutrality, and natural resources.
The past year has been very active and productive as we show in our Newsletter 2023. We have created the TIMES-KUWAIT model and further developed the TIMES-Vietnam, TIMES-Jordan, and TIMES-NEU models. The latter covers Northern Europe. We have also embarked on several research projects. One focuses on PtX, another on modelling the AFOLU sector. A third project is focusing on supporting local authorities to speed up the green transition.
Inspired by community
We were pleased to attend the Semi-annual ETSAP meeting in Turin in November. Our consultant Till Ben Brahim made a presentation on the possibility for the Nordic countries, especially Denmark, to become a green hub for the export of green hydrogen and electricity to Europe. He showed scenarios generated by the TIMES-NEU model that we have used to analyze future energy markets in the Nordics.
Furthermore, we had the opportunity to network and agree with colleagues from Italy, Belgium, and the Nordic countries to team up regularly and share results from our work.
Creating the TIMES-KUWAIT model
We have contributed to the first steps of strategic energy planning in Kuwait as consultants on the project Developing Kuwait’s Long-Term Climate Pathways. In the first place, we developed a database for energy and GHG emissions. Next, we created the TIMES-KUWAIT model and generated different scenarios including rapid expansion of the renewable fuel market and reduced exports.
The government of Kuwait has pledged to reach net-zero emissions in the oil and gas sector by 2050 and by 2060 for the whole country.
Best location of PtXplants
As part of MissionGreenFuels, EML is collaborating with 13 partners on the PtX Sector Coupling and Life Cycle Assessment Project. The expected result is to create better ways to determine optimal ways of integrating PtX into the green transition. To this end, we are developing and updating the TIMES-NEU model.
The study aims to identify the policy instruments needed to accelerate the uptake of hydrogen fuel cells for the shipping industries in Denmark, Norway, and Sweden.
Hydrogen fuel cells are promising for reducing emissions from shipping. However, their adoption is limited by high costs, lack of regulations, and lack of infrastructure. This is why there is a need for policies that spur investments in hydrogen fuel cells.
The three policy packages
Together with our fellow researchers, we tested three policy packages with different degrees of ambition (low, medium, and high). Our findings indicated that the proposed taxes on CO2 emissions and fossil fuels can help drive the transition away from fossil fuels. Meanwhile, the complete transition requires a ban on the use of fossil fuels.
The three policy packages were formulated based on discussions during workshops with key stakeholders from Nordic Shipping. During the workshops, we also learned that the participants are paying high attention to a “chicken and egg” paradox: Without the demand for green hydrogen, no supply, and vice versa. This has not been reflected in previous studies.
Correspondingly, a coordinated regional approach and cross-sector and cross-industry collaboration are needed. Otherwise, we cannot overcome the paradox and help balance the supply and demand for Nordic shipping
Modelling
MODEL
We used the TIMES-NEU model, an economic model generator for energy systems, to evaluate the three different policy packages. EML has developed the TIMES-NEU model.
SCENARIOS
Estimated total fuel consumption in PJ/year; CO2 emissions by fuel in thousand tons of CO2 emissions/year; revenue from the tax on fossil fuels in million Euros/year; ferry segment fuel consumption in PJ/year.
RESULTS
The main finding was that policies are needed to spur investments. Meanwhile, it’s necessary to ban fossil fuels to complete the green transition of shipping.
Other scenarios included in the study show estimated CAPEX and OPEX in million Euros/year, estimated CAPEX and OPEX for the ferry segment in million, and estimated CAPEX and OPEX of the mandate of ferries to use hydrogen in comparison to the policy packages in million Euros/year.
