Energy Modelling Lab is supporting the Danish Council on Climate Change. We are updating and handing over the Danish Biomass Resource Model, DK-BioRes, that we developed a few years ago. DK-BioRes is a flow-based model, It contains all Danish biomass resources from agriculture, forestry and aquaculture. The updated model will feature several technologies that are used to reduce carbon emissions and nitrification. As part of the project, we are building up the capacities of the staff at the Council so that they can use the model themselves.
With the DK-BioRes model at hand, The Danish Council on Climate Change can develop comprehensive scenarios of climate neutrality when it comes to land use, yield and emissions from agriculture, aquaculture and forestry. They can integrate the use of biomass and consumer behaviour in the scenario. The project is thus enhancing the capacities of the Council to provide suggestions for cost-effective climate policy solutions.
Energy Modelling Lab is updating the flow-based model DK-BioRES that we have developed. The model features all Danish biomass resources from agriculture, forestry, and aquaculture.
The model can generate scenarios of the impact of different strategies and of increasing the use of a range of technologies such as manure acidification and air cleaning to reduce carbon emissions.
Energy Modelling Lab trains the staff of the Danish Climate Council on updating and using the model to develop scenarios. We also include training on quality assurance of the scenarios.
By the end of the project, we are handing over the DK-BioRES Model to the Danish Climate Council assuring full ownership by the staff.
Viet Nam is making headways in planning for the energy sector and is heading to reach net-zero emissions in 2050. Viet Nam Energy Outlook Report 2021 examined possible pathways for the development of the energy sector, and it featured a trajectory to reach this target for the first time.
One major finding was that a sustainable energy system will enable self-sufficiency. Another is that wind and solar energy are cheaper long-term solutions than coal and gas. At present, coal is the leading source of power.
Energy Modelling Lab is developing the scenarios that will be used in a new energy-system model for the Energy Outlook Report 2023. The model makes it possible for decision-makers and energy and power planners to identify the most cost-effective and feasible pathways to achieve a sustainable green transition.
The first step is to meet with our Vietnamese partners and agree on the questions to address, relevant analyses to undertake, and scenarios to design.
Energy Modelling Lab then redesigns and updates the modelling framework. We strengthen the representation of new decarbonization technologies and integrate relevant constraints.
The core scenarios focus on the realization of the net-zero target. They allow for a comprehensive investigation of optimal solutions. The results are then reflected in recommendations for policymaking.
The process fosters a wide consensus and understanding of Viet Nam’s energy challenges and opportunities in the mid-to long term.
The Viet Nam Energy Outlook Report 2023 identifies the cost-optimized solutions that support Viet Nam’s energy system to become sustainable.
The Report allows for decision-makers to explore the system-wide implications of fulfilling targets by 2050. It also shows how Viet Nam can contribute to fulfilling the Paris Agreement on climate change.
Viet Nam is a regional manufactural hub and one of the most dynamic countries in East Asia, with the GDP annual growth rate averaging 6.2 per cent from 2000 until 2023. According to the analysis in the Viet Nam Energy Outlook Report 2021, electricity consumption will more than double in 2050 compared to 2020.
Viet Nam has pledged to reach the target of net-zero emissions by 2050. This means that the power system must meet more than 70 per cent of the total final energy demand with renewable energy-based electricity.
Energy Modelling Lab supports the endeavours to enhance energy planning in Viet Nam. We assist the Vietnamese authorities by building up their planning capacities concerning scenario-based, long-term modelling of the Vietnamese energy system. To this end, we are integrating an updated technology catalogue in the present energy system model and have included electricity storage solutions, P2X, nuclear technologies, optimal use of biomass, and carbon capture and storage.
Energy Modelling Lab updates the technology catalogue that is integrated into the present energy system model.
The catalogue includes decarbonisation technologies that are not yet being used and describes costs and relevant technical parameters.
The catalogue contributes to fostering data-driven discussions and understanding of the potential of decarbonization technologies.
The expected outcome of this process is a broader consensus on the potential.
The results will be integrated into the existing energy system model and can create first insights into cost-optimal applications of these technologies.
The results will contribute to making the Viet Nam Energy Outlook Report 2023 more comprehensive and enable decision-making on investments.
Kuwait is becoming one of the hottest countries on the planet and faces profound social and ecological challenges from continued global warming and the global transition away from fossil fuels. The government has pledged to reach net-zero emissions in the oil and gas sector by 2050 and by 2060 for the whole country.
At present, oil accounts for 90 % of the national revenue and more than half of GDP and renewable energy for less than 1 % of demand. Kuwait thus needs clever and comprehensive solutions. With abundant wind and solar resources, the potential is at hand.
Energy Modelling Lab supports steps to reach net-zero emissions in Kuwait by 2060. We are developing an energy modelling framework that allows us to identify the least-cost and most feasible green energy systems. Based on these results we are able to designate pathways to integrate the new solutions across five key sectors: Energy, Industry, Agriculture, Land-Use, and Waste.
Energy Modelling Lab develops a database for energy and GHG emissions, build consensus on ambitions, and shortlist decarbonization options.
We develop an energy model featuring different scenarios including rapid expansion of the renewable fuel market and reduced exports.
Analyzing the different scenarios allows for informed decision-making on the optimal solutions integrated across sectors.
Socioeconomic and environmental impacts and co-benefits such as improved health are identified and considered.
Results are presented in a website format with open access and all key results are shared in Excel sheets.
Users can move between scenarios and study results like emissions and energy consumption by sector and costs.
Jordan is considered to be among the world’s most vulnerable to drought as a result of climate change. Major challenges are aridity, water scarcity, heavy reliance on fossil energy imports and rapid growth in population and urbanization.
The government is now addressing the need for a transition to a greener and more resilient economy. One important step is developing a National Long-Term Low Emission Strategy and Options Report 2050.
Energy Modelling Lab is contributing to developing a low-emission strategy in Jordan. We are creating a central modelling framework representing eight key sectors and their interconnections. By embedding baseline scenarios, we can estimate the impact of different options for decarbonization. We then create a shortlist of the least cost and most feasible options and are able to designate the optimal pathways.
MODELLING Energy Modelling Lab shortlists decarbonization options, identifies cross-sector synergies and develops an integrated model.
The model includes a full investment catalogue for the entire energy sector and shows the economically optimal pathways through the jungle of technological solutions.
SCENARIO ANALYSIS Through a series of scenarios, we can investigate the consequences of different climate scenarios and consider prioritized mitigation actions.
We also identify and consider socioeconomic and environmental impacts and co-benefits such as improved health and energy savings.
REPORT The final report proposes optimal decarbonization pathways and provides policy recommendations that are validated through workshops with key stakeholders.
The Jordanian Government will have a solid basis for a continuously informed decision process as we will build up local partner capacity to use and update the model.
The biogas module contains both existing and new plants
The model can now utilize the 89 existing biogas plants in Denmark, and it can choose to invest in new biogas plants, when searching for solutions to cover our future energy demand.
Each plant can take classic biomasses such as manure or straw as input and generates both biogas and a fiber fraction, which can be utilized in for example pyrolysis processes. But the model is also ready to use new types of biomass like seaweed in future biogas plants.
Restrictions and regulation
A couple restrictions have been added to the biogas plants. In this way the model results become more realistic:
A maximum dry matter content for each biogas plant.
In the near future wind and solar will take over the electricity market. As a result the thermal power and district heating plants will close down faster than the Danish Energy Agency projects.
In this analysis for Dansk Fjernvarme, Energy Modelling Lab has dived into the details of the future of district heating in Denmark, to explore where the heat will come from, and if our energy system will get too vulnerable without the thermal powerplants.
In the future district heating will primarily come from large scale heat pumps and surplus heat from PtX-plants and data centers.
The thermal power and heat plants are being phased out faster than the Danish Energy Agency projects.
An energy system with a low diversity comes with an increased risk of failure.
The Vietnamese economy is growing, and so is the demand for energy. As the country moves forward new investments in clean energy and infrastructure are highly needed. Energy Modelling Lab has developed scenarios to reach the target of net zero by 2050 in Vietnam.
The power generation and storage capacity should be 30 times higher than the current capacity.
Electricity should primarily come from solar power combined with batteries.
Power transmission should be increased by 40% compared to the present capacity.
Download the Energy Outlook Report 2021 for Vietnam
The report is written by the Electricity and Renewable Energy Authority in Vietnam (EREA) along with the Danish Energy Agency. Energy Modelling Lab has contributed to both the analysis and the report.
The challenge of reducing the dependency of fossil gas differs between the Nordic countries. Therefore each country has its own set of challenges to solve.
Norway exports while Sweden and Finland imports gas
Denmark is connected to central Europe and receives the gas mix in the grid from both Russia and Norway. (The Danish gas production is temporarily low due to maintenance of the Tyra Field).
Finland gets gas directly from Russia and through Estonia.
Norway exports a large amount of gas mainly to central Europe and partly to the Danish grid.
Sweden gets gas from the European grid through Denmark.
Fossil gas use differs between the nordic countries
In Denmark around 350,000 buildings are heated by gas, and switching to district heating or heat pumps is a major task in the years to come.
Finland primarily uses gas for electricity and heat production and industry, especially pulp and paper and iron and steal production consumes large amounts of gas. Switching to green energy sources in these processes is the primary task for Finland.
Norway does not have a high domestic gas use in the society as such, but the fossil fuel extraction uses a large amount of gas today. Electrification of the energy production can reduce the fossil gas consumption substantially.
Sweden mainly use gas for non-energy purposes such as fertilizer and plastics, but also for process heat in the iron and steal production, chemical industry and pulp and paper production.
If you want to dive into more details on the role of fossil gas in the Nordic countries, you can find the full analysis here. The analysis is made in collaboration with IVL and Energiforsk.
In the Tallaght area of Dublin, there is a data center that needs cooling. At the same time, the surrounding households need heating. This is a perfect case for a mutually beneficial thermal energy network.
It is also a perfect project for TEN21, a collaboration that Energy Modelling Lab is partner in. In Dublin, the TEN21 toolbox has been used to support local officials on how to expand the district heating network to utilize waste heat from the data center. We have built an energy system model to find an efficient expansion strategy from a techno-economic perspective. In addition, we created a strategy for commercializing the district heating activity on a cost-recovery basis.