Kuwait is becoming one of the hottest countries on the planet and faces profound social and ecological challenges from continued global warming and the transition from fossil fuels. The government has pledged to reach net-zero emissions in the oil and gas sector by 2050 and by 2060 for the whole country.
At present, oil accounts for 90 % of the national revenue and more than half of GDP, and renewable energy for less than 1 % of demand. Kuwait thus needs clever and comprehensive solutions. With abundant wind and solar resources, the potential is at hand.
Energy Modelling Lab supports steps to reach net-zero emissions in Kuwait by 2060. We are developing an energy systems model, the TIMES-KUWIAT, that allows us to identify the least-cost and most feasible green energy systems. Based on these results we can designate pathways to integrate the new solutions across five key sectors: Energy, Industry, Agriculture, land use, and Waste.
MODELLING
Energy Modelling Lab develops a database for energy and GHG emissions, builds consensus on ambitions, and shortlists decarbonization options.
We develop the TIMES-KUWAIT model featuring different scenarios including rapid expansion of the renewable fuel market and reduced exports.
SCENARIO ANALYSIS
Analyzing the different scenarios allows for informed decision-making on the optimal solutions integrated across sectors.
Socioeconomic and environmental impacts and co-benefits such as improved health are identified and considered.
RESULTS
Results are presented in a website format with open access and all key results are shared in Excel sheets.
Users can move between scenarios and study results like emissions and energy consumption by sector and costs.
Jordan is considered to be among the world’s most vulnerable to drought as a result of climate change. Major challenges are aridity, water scarcity, heavy reliance on fossil energy imports, rapid population growth, and urbanization.
The government is now addressing the need to transition to a greener and more resilient economy. One important step is developing a National Long-Term Low Emission Strategy and Options Report 2050.
Energy Modelling Lab is contributing to developing a low-emission strategy in Jordan. We are creating a tailored energy systems model, the TIMES-Jordan model. This modelling framework represents eight key sectors and their interconnections. By embedding baseline scenarios, we can estimate the impact of different options for decarbonization. We then create a shortlist of the least cost and most feasible options and designate the optimal pathways.
MODELLING We have built a tailored energy systems model, the TIMES-Jordan, using the TIMES energy systems modelling framework developed under IEA.
The model includes a full investment catalog for the entire energy sector and shows the economically optimal pathways through the jungle of technological solutions.
SCENARIO ANALYSIS Through a series of scenarios, we can investigate the consequences of different climate scenarios and consider prioritized mitigation actions.
We also identify and consider socioeconomic and environmental impacts and co-benefits such as improved health and energy savings.
REPORT The final report proposes optimal decarbonization pathways and provides policy recommendations that are validated through workshops with key stakeholders.
The Jordanian Government will have a solid basis for a continuously informed decision process as we will build local partner capacity to use and update the model.
The project Nordic Clean Energy Scenarios aims at identifying technological solutions to a fully carbon-neutral Nordic region. It further aims at developing energy scenarios for the Nordic energy sector enabling the Nordic commitment to reach carbon neutrality.
Collaborating on finding the right solutions
NCES2020 brings together nine teams from four Nordic countries, with complementing modelling and analytical skills. Combined with the use of open-access energy system models and data, this strengthens Nordic cooperation and expertise in energy modelling.
Energy Modelling Lab provides TIMES modelling courses at SDU, the Southern University of Denmark. Furthermore, one of the students joined Energy Modelling Lab for an internship in the fall of 2021.
TIMES modelling course
The students get an insight into the globally used energy system modelling tool TIMES. Furthermore, the course dives into the Danish model TIMES-DK to assess the Danish energy systems.
Projects made by the students
– Modelling of battery capacity in electric vehicles – Energy islands in the Danish area of the North Sea
Educating the future generation on how to tackle the climate crisis is essential. Energy Modelling Lab has developed a new educational platform KAOS, containing exercises within Mathematics, Social science, Geography, and Physics.
The platform focuses on climate change and energy system modelling and provides the students with the challenging task within Energy systems and planning, Carbon budgets, agriculture scenarios, and more.
The Korea New Green Deal highlights that a total of $15.3 billion is invested, in Zero Energy Public Buildings by 2025. The focus on Zero Energy Buildings has a specific target on schools including remodeling old school buildings. The aim is to make them energy-efficient and run on solar power.
In this study, the Energy Modeling Lab analyses the impacts of changing the energy supply in South Korea’s school buildings. The three focus areas are greenhouse gasses, air pollution, and health, and economic consequences.
IEA (International Energy Agency) Technology Collaboration Programme ETSAP (Energy Technology Systems Analysis Program) – iea-etsap.org
EML is an active member of the ETSAP community. EML has and continues to contribute to the ETSAP community in 2020 and 2021. We continue the Danish collaboration and participation at the IEA-ETSAP, Annex X to XIV under the new Annex XV. Our partners and consultants are actively developing TIMES models in several projects, regularly attend ETSAP’s biannual workshops and webinars, took VEDA-TIMES training, were and will continue teaching energy systems analysis courses at the post-graduate level by deploying the TIMES framework, develop auxiliary tools to improve pre-and post-processing tasks and successfully migrated from VEDA1 to VEDA2 during ongoing projects.
The work builds on the NETP projects by complementing the cost-effective pathways with a deeper analysis of uncertainty and alternative socio-technical framework conditions. This includes policy, technology shifts, economic outlook, developments in other countries and other societal changes that have an impact on the Nordic region – DK, FI ,IS ,NO and SE.
This project develops an independent study of the Ukrainian energy system, which analyses development scenarios for input to national energy strategy documents and provides policy recommendations to achieve national energy and climate goals. Furthermore, the modelling results of this project can also be used to contribute to the National Energy and Climate Change Plan for the period 2021-2030 (NECP).
The objective of the project is that Vietnam’s energy system becomes more sustainable through the implementation of cost-optimized policy and planning by assisting MOIT and EREA to commission, develop, and analyze comprehensive long-term energy scenarios.
This technical assistance tackles the needs of Azerbaijan to review and update the Long-Term Energy Strategy (LTES) in light of the recent situation in AZ. Another important focus in this technical assistance is to build up capacity in Azerbaijan to continue the work with LTES and in general to work with energy system analysis as a method for planning future investments and points of focus.
Meetings
Biannual workshops
The biannual workshops focus on the practice of modelling and use of ETSAP tools e.g. MARKAL/TIMES modelling frameworks, participation in training activities, and collaboration in projects related to the improvement of ETSAP tools. In general, the contribution to these workshops shall be based on current and future projects, particularly within EU, Nordic, and Danish research programs – by involving PhD students from Danish universities.
Our director and partners participated in several IEA-ETSAP semi-annual meetings over the last years:
For all past and coming workshops please see here.
Webinars
Members of EML attended several ETSAP webinars:
2020-11-26: How to build a TIMES model from scratch
2020-12-10: Modelling clean energy transitions: approaches and tools for the World Energy Outlook and the Energy Technology Perspectives
2021-01-21: Developing and using TIMES models with git, GitHub, and VEDA
2021-02-23: ETSAP webinar: High temporal and spatial resolution modelling in TIMES models
2021-03-30: Stochastic Modelling of VRES in TIMES and Modelling high VRES with hourly TS resolution, unit commitment, dispatch, and capacity expansion in TIMES
Training
Ida participated in the 3 day ETSAP VEDA-Times web training.
2020-12-09 to 2020-12-11: Basic Training Course on VEDA-TIMES, Web Training by Maurizio Gargiulo from E4SMA
EML is teaching energy system modelling on the basis of the TIMES modelling framework. In the current term, Mikkel and Kenneth are offering the course TIMES-DK modelling to graduate students at SDU. The duration is approx. 20 weeks from February to June 2021.
Background
The students are given insights into the TIMES modelling framework and will deploy the Danish model TIMES-DK to assess the Danish energy systems within the scope of their assignments.
Objectives
The course aims to provide the students with knowledge and abilities to work in the TIMES framework, which includes but is not limited to the following topics:
Sector coupling of the full energy system
Time aspect in the making of energy system assessment
Resource barriers such as bioenergy, wind, solar, and fossil potentials
Carbon budgets and national GHG targets
Method
Weekly lectures combined with practical assignments and project work in groups. The results of case works are an integrated part of the teaching and will be presented and evaluated during the course.
Auxilliary tools
At EML we develop several auxiliary tools. Currently, we are working on two tools, one to include biomass potentials for energy use in our analysis and the other to seamlessly aggregate and transmit data from a VEDA batch export Excel file to our websites hosted by Tokni:
A biomass model – for more information contact Ida
Within the Nordic Clean Energy Scenarios (NCES2020) project EML migrated the development of the open-source Nordic TIMES model (ON-TIMES) from VEDA1 to VEDA2. It includes all of the 5 Nordic countries, i.e. Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden and serves the purpose of informing decision-makers and supporting the common Nordic commitment to carbon neutrality through strong, collaborative Nordic research and analysis.
Energy Modelling Lab is engaging in the biannual ETSAP workshops, that focus on the practice of modelling. We also participate in training activities and collaboration on projects related to the improvement of ETSAP tools such as the TIMES models.
The contributions to these workshops are based on current and future projects, particularly within EU, Nordic, and Danish research programs.
It is crucial to select suitable time slices in an energy model. Including time intervals with high demand is important, since leaving them out might create misleading results and bad investments.
Energy Modelling Lab created a smart tool for flexible time slice selection. The tool has been designed for the Danish energy system model (TIMES-DK).
