Nordic Clean Energy Scenarios

The project Nordic Clean Energy Scenarios aims at identifying technological solutions to a fully carbon-neutral Nordic region. It further aims at developing energy scenarios for the Nordic energy sector enabling the Nordic commitment to reach carbon neutrality.

Collaborating on finding the right solutions

NCES2020 brings together nine teams from four Nordic countries, with complementing modelling and analytical skills. Combined with the use of open-access energy system models and data, this strengthens Nordic cooperation and expertise in energy modelling.

The path to neutrality

If you are curious to know more about the results, you can find the five solution tracks here. You can also listen to the podcast, read the full report, or dive straight into the results data.

Building DK-BioRes

MODELLING
Energy Modelling Lab has developed an open-source energy model for the Nordic region (ON-TIMES).

The model covers Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Finland and Iceland.

SCENARIO ANALYSIS
The model is used to identify paths to a fully carbon-neutral Nordic region.

Find the scenario results here.

REPORT
The results are collected in the Nordic Clean Energy Scenarios report.


Duration: March 2020 – April 2021.

Project: Nordic Clean Energy Scenarios

EML Team: Kenneth Karlsson

Client: Nordic Energy Research

Budget: NOK 320.000

Reference: Kevin Johnsen, COO, Nordic Energy Research

Model: Open Nordic TIMES model (ON-TIMES)

TIMES modelling courses at SDU

Energy Modelling Lab provides TIMES modelling courses at SDU, the Southern University of Denmark. Furthermore, one of the students joined Energy Modelling Lab for an internship in the fall of 2021.

TIMES modelling course

The students get an insight into the globally used energy system modelling tool TIMES. Furthermore, the course dives into the Danish model TIMES-DK to assess the Danish energy systems.

Projects made by the students

– Modelling of battery capacity in electric vehicles
– Energy islands in the Danish area of the North Sea

Duration: 2019-2021

Contact person EML: Kenneth Karlsson and Ida Græsted

A new educational platform KAOS

Educating the future generation on how to tackle the climate crisis is essential. Energy Modelling Lab has developed a new educational platform KAOS, containing exercises within Mathematics, Social science, Geography, and Physics.

The platform focuses on climate change and energy system modelling and provides the students with the challenging task within Energy systems and planning, Carbon budgets, agriculture scenarios, and more.

Try it out: kaos.world

Duration: June – April 2021

Team: Kenneth Karlsson and Alexandra O’Sullivan Freltoft

Collaborators: Jette Hagesen from Envice

Client: Børne- og Undervisningsministeriet

Web platform: kaos.world

Energy planning in Ukraine

The main objective of the project is to support Ukraine in planning for its future green energy system.

The project is part of a partnership program between Ukraine and Denmark, to achieve the goals of the Energy Strategy of Ukraine for 2050.

Building DK-BioRes

MODELLING
Improving and updating the Energy System Model for Ukraine (TIMES-Ukraine), to contain the newest trends and technologies.

SCENARIO ANALYSIS
The model is used for long-term energy systems and climate policy planning.

REPORT
Supporting the development of the Action Plan, showing the road towards national greenhouse gas reductions in Ukraine.


Duration: September 2020 – April 2021

Program: Ukraine-Denmark Energy Partnership Program (UDEPP)

EML Team: Mikkel Bosack Simonsen, Kenneth Karlsson

Client: The Ministry of Environmental Protection and Natural Resources in Ukraine

Donor: Danish Energy Agency

Budget: DKK 382.050

Reference: Mourad Boucenna

Model: TIMES-Ukraine

Zero Energy Buildings in Korea

The Korea New Green Deal highlights that a total of $15.3 billion is invested, in Zero Energy Public Buildings by 2025. The focus on Zero Energy Buildings has a specific target on schools including remodeling old school buildings. The aim is to make them energy-efficient and run on solar power.

In this study, the Energy Modeling Lab analyses the impacts of changing the energy supply in South Korea’s school buildings. The three focus areas are greenhouse gasses, air pollution, and health, and economic consequences.

Implementation date: March 2021 – May 2021

Contact person: Till ben Brahim

IEA ETSAP Newsletter 2021

EML activities in the IEA ETSAP community

IEA ETSAP Newsletter 2021

Time frame: Late 2019 to spring 2021

EML: Energy Modelling Lab ApS – energymodellinglab.com

IEA (International Energy Agency) Technology Collaboration Programme ETSAP (Energy Technology Systems Analysis Program) – iea-etsap.org

EML is an active member of the ETSAP community. EML has and continues to contribute to the ETSAP community in 2020 and 2021. We continue the Danish collaboration and participation at the IEA-ETSAP, Annex X to XIV under the new Annex XV. Our partners and consultants are actively developing TIMES models in several projects, regularly attend ETSAP’s biannual workshops and webinars, took VEDA-TIMES training, were and will continue teaching energy systems analysis courses at the post-graduate level by deploying the TIMES framework, develop auxiliary tools to improve pre-and post-processing tasks and successfully migrated from VEDA1 to VEDA2 during ongoing projects.

Projects

TitleModelPeriodPartnersDescriptionWebsite
NCES2020 Nordic Clean Energy Scenarios 2020ON-TIMES2020

2021
Energiforsk, NMBU, EA, VTT, IVLThe work builds on the NETP projects by complementing the cost-effective pathways with a deeper analysis of uncertainty and alternative socio-technical framework conditions. This includes policy, technology shifts, economic outlook, developments in other countries and other societal changes that have an impact on the Nordic region – DK, FI ,IS ,NO and SE.nces2020.tokni.com – under construction!
UEOR2021 Energy Outlook Report for UkrainTIMES-UA2019

2021
UEDC, MoE, DEA, EAThis project develops an independent study of the Ukrainian energy system, which analyses development scenarios for input to national energy strategy documents and provides policy recommendations to achieve national energy and climate goals. Furthermore, the modelling results of this project can also be used to contribute to the National Energy and Climate Change Plan for the period 2021-2030 (NECP).timesukraine.tokni.com
VEOR2021 Vietnam Energy Outlook Report 2021TIMES-Vietnam2021

2021
EREA, DEAThe objective of the project is that Vietnam’s energy system becomes more sustainable through the implementation of cost-optimized policy and planning by assisting MOIT and EREA to commission, develop, and analyze comprehensive long-term energy scenarios. 
LTES-AZ Long-term Energy Strategy for AzerbaijanTIMES-AZ (to be dev.)2021

2022
MoE, EQUINOCCIO, Ramboll, NIRASThis technical assistance tackles the needs of Azerbaijan to review and update the Long-Term Energy Strategy (LTES) in light of the recent situation in AZ. Another important focus in this technical assistance is to build up capacity in Azerbaijan to continue the work with LTES and in general to work with energy system analysis as a method for planning future investments and points of focus. 

Meetings

Biannual workshops

The biannual workshops focus on the practice of modelling and use of ETSAP tools e.g. MARKAL/TIMES modelling frameworks, participation in training activities, and collaboration in projects related to the improvement of ETSAP tools. In general, the contribution to these workshops shall be based on current and future projects, particularly within EU, Nordic, and Danish research programs – by involving PhD students from Danish universities.

Our director and partners participated in several IEA-ETSAP semi-annual meetings over the last years:

For all past and coming workshops please see here.

Webinars

Members of EML attended several ETSAP webinars:

  • 2020-11-26: How to build a TIMES model from scratch
  • 2020-12-10: Modelling clean energy transitions: approaches and tools for the World Energy Outlook and the Energy Technology Perspectives
  • 2021-01-21: Developing and using TIMES models with git, GitHub, and VEDA
  • 2021-02-23: ETSAP webinar: High temporal and spatial resolution modelling in TIMES models
  • 2021-03-30: Stochastic Modelling of VRES in TIMES and Modelling high VRES with hourly TS resolution, unit commitment, dispatch, and capacity expansion in TIMES

Training

Ida participated in the 3 day ETSAP VEDA-Times web training.

For future training please see here.

Teaching

EML is teaching energy system modelling on the basis of the TIMES modelling framework. In the current term, Mikkel and Kenneth are offering the course TIMES-DK modelling to graduate students at SDU. The duration is approx. 20 weeks from February to June 2021.

Background

The students are given insights into the TIMES modelling framework and will deploy the Danish model TIMES-DK to assess the Danish energy systems within the scope of their assignments.

Objectives

The course aims to provide the students with knowledge and abilities to work in the TIMES framework, which includes but is not limited to the following topics:

  • Sector coupling of the full energy system
  • Time aspect in the making of energy system assessment
  • Resource barriers such as bioenergy, wind, solar, and fossil potentials
  • Carbon budgets and national GHG targets

Method

Weekly lectures combined with practical assignments and project work in groups. The results of case works are an integrated part of the teaching and will be presented and evaluated during the course.

Auxilliary tools

At EML we develop several auxiliary tools. Currently, we are working on two tools, one to include biomass potentials for energy use in our analysis and the other to seamlessly aggregate and transmit data from a VEDA batch export Excel file to our websites hosted by Tokni:

  • A biomass model – for more information contact Ida
  • Veda to TOKNI – for more information contact Till

VEDA migration

Within the Nordic Clean Energy Scenarios (NCES2020) project EML migrated the development of the open-source Nordic TIMES model (ON-TIMES) from VEDA1 to VEDA2. It includes all of the 5 Nordic countries, i.e. Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden and serves the purpose of informing decision-makers and supporting the common Nordic commitment to carbon neutrality through strong, collaborative Nordic research and analysis.

Download a copy

IEA ETSAP Newsletter 2021

Engaging in the modelling community

The Energy Technology Systems Analysis Programme (ETSAP) is an active network of modelers around the world.

Energy Modelling Lab is engaging in the biannual ETSAP workshops, that focus on the practice of modelling. We also participate in training activities and collaboration on projects related to the improvement of ETSAP tools such as the TIMES models.

The contributions to these workshops are based on current and future projects, particularly within EU, Nordic, and Danish research programs.

Time-slicing tool for energy models

It is crucial to select suitable time slices in an energy model. Including time intervals with high demand is important, since leaving them out might create misleading results and bad investments.

Energy Modelling Lab created a smart tool for flexible time slice selection. The tool has been designed for the Danish energy system model (TIMES-DK).

Duration: November 2019 – March 2020

EML contact: Kenneth Karlsson

Client: Danish Energy Agency

Model: the Danish energy system model (TIMES-DK)