The past year has been very active and productive as we show in our Newsletter Winter 2024. We have created the TIMES-KUWAIT model and further developed the TIMES-Vietnam, TIMES-Jordan, and TIMES-NEU models. The latter covers Northern Europe. We have also embarked on several research projects. One focuses on PtX, another on modelling the AFOLU sector. A third project is focusing on supporting local authorities to speed up the green transition.
Inspired by community
We were pleased to attend the Semi-annual ETSAP meeting in Turin in November. Our consultant Till Ben Brahim made a presentation on the possibility for the Nordic countries, especially Denmark, to become a green hub for the export of green hydrogen and electricity to Europe. He showed scenarios generated by the TIMES-NEU model that we have used to analyze future energy markets in the Nordics.
Furthermore, we had the opportunity to network and agree with colleagues from Italy, Belgium, and the Nordic countries to team up regularly and share results from our work.
Creating the TIMES-KUWAIT model
We have contributed to the first steps of strategic energy planning in Kuwait as consultants on the project Developing Kuwait’s Long-Term Climate Pathways. In the first place, we developed a database for energy and GHG emissions. Next, we created the TIMES-KUWAIT model and generated different scenarios including rapid expansion of the renewable fuel market and reduced exports.
The government of Kuwait has pledged to reach net-zero emissions in the oil and gas sector by 2050 and by 2060 for the whole country.
Best location of PtXplants
As part of MissionGreenFuels, EML is collaborating with 13 partners on the PtX Sector Coupling and Life Cycle Assessment Project. The expected result is to create better ways to determine optimal ways of integrating PtX into the green transition. To this end, we are developing and updating the TIMES-NEU model.
The study aims to identify the policy instruments needed to accelerate the uptake of hydrogen fuel cells for the shipping industries in Denmark, Norway, and Sweden.
Hydrogen fuel cells are promising for reducing emissions from shipping. However, their adoption is limited by high costs, lack of regulations, and lack of infrastructure. This is why there is a need for policies that spur investments in hydrogen fuel cells.
The three policy packages
Together with our fellow researchers, we tested three policy packages with different degrees of ambition (low, medium, and high). Our findings indicated that the proposed taxes on CO2 emissions and fossil fuels can help drive the transition away from fossil fuels. Meanwhile, the complete transition requires a ban on the use of fossil fuels.
The three policy packages were formulated based on discussions during workshops with key stakeholders from Nordic Shipping. During the workshops, we also learned that the participants are paying high attention to a “chicken and egg” paradox: Without the demand for green hydrogen, no supply, and vice versa. This has not been reflected in previous studies.
Correspondingly, a coordinated regional approach and cross-sector and cross-industry collaboration are needed. Otherwise, we cannot overcome the paradox and help balance the supply and demand for Nordic shipping
Modelling
MODEL
We used the TIMES-NEU model, an economic model generator for energy systems, to evaluate the three different policy packages. EML has developed the TIMES-NEU model.
SCENARIOS
Estimated total fuel consumption in PJ/year; CO2 emissions by fuel in thousand tons of CO2 emissions/year; revenue from the tax on fossil fuels in million Euros/year; ferry segment fuel consumption in PJ/year.
RESULTS
The main finding was that policies are needed to spur investments. Meanwhile, it’s necessary to ban fossil fuels to complete the green transition of shipping.
Other scenarios included in the study show estimated CAPEX and OPEX in million Euros/year, estimated CAPEX and OPEX for the ferry segment in million, and estimated CAPEX and OPEX of the mandate of ferries to use hydrogen in comparison to the policy packages in million Euros/year.
The television program 21 Sunday focused on the production of green fuels for shipping in the edition broadcasted on DR on 11 February. Energy Modeling Lab has made the calculations on which DR bases the main point of the broadcast: It is a huge challenge to build up the production of green fuels and establish the supply lines for green shipping.
DR used Ane Mærsk as an example. It is a brand-new container ship that can sail on green methanol. To make enough green methanol for Ane Mærsk to sail for a year, electricity must be used from a solar park the size of the one in Kassø in Southern Jutland. This is what our calculations show. The solar park in Kassø is the largest in Northern Europe.
Maersk’s goal is that 25 percent of the company’s fleet must sail on green fuels in 2030. If it sails on green methanol, and the power is to be supplied from solar parks in Denmark, it will require approximately 120 parks of the same size as Kassø.
We have used the Danish Energy Agency’s technology catalog as the basis for our calculations. The catalog shows how much power different technologies can be assumed to produce calculated on average.
All our calculations
All our calculations can be studied closely in the Excel sheet
We have calculated the needed area use for six different types of green fuel production:
First generation biofuel
Second generation biofuel
A mixture of first- and second-generation biofuel
Solar plants in Denmark
Solar plants in Morocco
Wind farms in the North Sea
We show the needed area use as percentages of the following areas:
Denmark, Falster, Langeland, Horns Rev3, Morocco, Denmark’s agricultural area, Bhadla Solar Park (one of the world’s largest solar parks located in India), the Amazon, and soccer fields.
We have calculated the needed area use to produce green fuel for Ane Mærsk, 25 percent of Maersk’s fleet, 100 percent of Maersk’s fleet, and 100 percent of international shipping.
Solar parks in Morocco
We do not expect large-scale production of green methanol on solar energy will be built up in Denmark. Solar parks are more efficient further south. Therefore, we have also calculated how large an area would be required if solar parks were to be built in Morocco: In Morocco, a 254-hectare solar park would be needed to produce enough electricity for Ane Mærsk. The facility in Kassø occupies 326 hectares.
To supply 25 percent of Mærsk’s fleet with green methanol, the size of the needed solar parks if built in Morocco, corresponds to 60 percent of Falster’s area. It is Maersk’s goal that the company’s entire fleet sail on green fuels by 2040. This will require solar parks in an area equivalent to two and a half times Falster’s (247 percent) if they are indeed built in Morocco.
If we take the area of one of the world’s largest solar parks, namely Bhadla Solar Park in India, Maersk will need the production of electricity from 22 parks of Bhadla’s size. Bhadla Solar Park covers an area of 5700 hectares.
If all international shipping is to sail on green methanol, electricity equivalent to the output of almost 740 solar parks of Bhadla’s size must be produced.
Supply from offshore wind turbines
If all international shipping is to sail on green methanol, it will require as much power as approximately 3290 offshore wind farms can produce. This calculation assumes that the offshore wind farm has the same size and performance as Horns Rev3 in the North Sea. We have chosen to use Horns Rev3 in the North Sea as an example because it is one of the world’s most efficient wind farms.
Green methanol from biofuels
Until now, green fuels have primarily been produced from plants such as corn, soybeans, and rapeseed. It is called first-generation biofuel. Maersk opts out of using that type of fuel. If all international shipping were to sail on first-generation biofuel produced from soybeans, an area the size of more than half of the Amazon would have to be harvested every year.
It is also possible to use residual products such as soy straw to make biofuel. It is referred to as second-generation biofuel.
If Maersk’s entire fleet were to sail on second-generation biofuel produced from soy straw, an area equivalent to more than twice the area of Denmark would have to be harvested every year. If the entire world’s fleet were to sail on this type of biofuel, an area equivalent to almost 74 times the area of Denmark would have to be harvested.
DR’s program 21 Søndag satte fokus på den grønne skibsfarts behov for brændstof i udsendelsen bragt den 11. februar. Energy Modelling Lab har udarbejdet de beregninger, som DR bygger udsendelsens hovedpointe på: Det er en kæmpe udfordring at opbygge produktionen af grønne brændstoffer og etablere forsyningslinjerne til den grønne skibsfart.
DR brugte Ane Mærsk som eksempel. Det er et spritnyt containerskib, der kan sejle på grøn metanol. For at lave grøn metanol nok til, at Ane Mærsk kan sejle i et år, skal der bruges strøm fra en solcellepark på størrelse med den i Kassø i Sønderjylland. Det viser vores beregninger. Solcelleparken i Kassø er Nordeuropas største.
Mærsk har som mål, at 25 pct. af virksomhedens flåde skal sejle på grønt brændstof i 2030. Hvis den sejler på grøn metanol, og strømmen skal leveres fra solcelleparker i Danmark, vil det kræve omtrent 120 parker af samme størrelse som Kassø.
Vi har anvendt Energistyrelsens teknologi katalog som grundlag for vores beregninger. Kataloget viser, hvor meget strøm forskellige teknologier kan antages at producere beregnet ud fra gennemsnit.
Alle vores beregninger
Alle vores beregninger kan nærstuderes i Excel arket:
Vi har beregnet areal-forbruget for seks forskellige former for produktion af grønt brændstof:
Første generation biobrændstof
Anden generation biobrændstof
Blanding af første og anden generation biobrændstof
Solcelleanlæg i Danmark
Solcelleanlæg i Marokko
Vindmølleparker i Nordsøen
Vi viser areal-forbruget som procentdele af følgende arealer:
Danmark, Falster, Langeland, Horns Rev3, Marokko, Danmarks landbrugsareal, Bhadla Solar Park (en af verdens største solcelleparker, som ligger i Indien), Amazonas og fodboldbaner.
Vi har beregnet areal-forbruget til produktion af grønt brændstof for henholdsvis Ane Mærsk, 25 pct. af Mærsk’ flåde, 100 pct. af Mærsk’ flåde og 100 pct. af den internationale skibsfart.
Solcelleparker i Marokko
I virkelighedens verden bliver det ikke i Danmark, at man opfører solcelleparker i stor skala til produktion af grøn metanol. Solcelleparker er mere effektive længere syd på. Derfor har vi også beregnet hvor stort et areal, der vil kræves, hvis man opfører solcelleparker i Marokko: I Marokko skal man bruge en 254 hektar stor solcellepark til at producere nok strøm til Ane Mærsk. Anlægget i Kassø fylder 326 hektar.
Til at forsyne 25 pct. af Mærsk’ flåde med grøn metanol, skal man opføre solcelleparker i Marokko, der svarer til 60 procent af Falsters areal. Det er målet for Mærsk, at hele virksomhedens flåde sejler på grønne brændstoffer i 2040. Det vil kræve solcelleparker på et areal svarende til to og en halv gang Falsters (247 pct.), hvis de vel og mærke opføres i Marokko.
Hvis vi tager arealet på en af verdens største solcelle-parker, nemlig Bhadla Solar Park i Indien, så får Mærsk brug for produktionen af strøm fra 22 parker af Bhadla’s størrelse. Bhadla Solar Park dækker et areal på 5700 hektar.
Hvis hele den internationale skibsfart skal sejle på grøn metanol, skal der produceres strøm svarende til knap 740 solcelleparker af Bhadla’s størrelse.
Forsyning fra havvindmøller
Hvis hele den internationale skibsfart skal sejle på grøn metanol, vil det kræve lige så meget strøm, som omtrent 3290 havvindmølleparker kan producere. Denne beregning har som forudsætning, at havvindmølleparken har samme størrelse og ydeevne som Horns Rev3 i Nordsøen. Vi har valgt at bruge Horns Rev3 i Nordsøen, fordi det er en af verdens mest effektive vindmølleparker.
Grøn metanol fra biobrændstoffer
Hidtil har grønne brændstoffer primært være produceret på planter som majs, sojabønner og raps. Det kaldes for første generation biobrændstof. Mærsk fravælger at bruge den type brændstof. Hvis hele den internationale skibsfart skulle sejle på første generation biobrændstof fremstillet på sojabønner, skulle man hvert år høste et areal på størrelse med mere end halvdelen af Amazonas.
Det er også muligt at bruge restprodukter som sojahalm til at lave biobrændstof. Det betegnes som anden generation biobrændstof.
Hvis hele Mærsk’ flåde skulle sejle på anden generations biobrændstof fremstillet på sojahalm, skulle man hvert år høste fra et areal svarende til mere end det dobbelte af Danmarks areal. Hvis hele verdens flåde skulle sejle på denne type biobrændstof, skulle man høste på et areal svarende til næsten 74 gange Danmarks areal.
How can local authorities mitigate resistance from citizens to new renewable energy plants and facilities? In a new report, a partnership model for municipalities is presented as a solution. The model is the result of a two-year project, The Future Green Energy and the Citizens, launched by the Danish Board of Technology and Deltager Danmark (Participation Denmark).
The model divides the process of developing partnerships into five phases. The centerpiece is to establish a local dialogue forum with representatives of all local stakeholders. When organized and tailored to the local community culture, a process of dialogue can ensure local ownership and legitimacy. Correspondingly, such a process has the merit of contributing to more informed and better decisions, efficient use of resources, and innovative solutions. Most importantly, it saves time because the stakeholders have opportunities to iron out misunderstandings and conflicts.
Citizen summits
The project took place in the municipalities of Kalundborg, Vordingborg, and Holbæk. The local citizens have been engaging in meetings such as “citizen summits”. We contributed as independent experts in energy planning. We have presented possible scenarios of the green transition of the local energy supply.
To give the participants a better sense of the implications, we have presented more detailed charts. One chart showed the land use needed to produce 1 million MWh by energy production facilities using respectively solar, wind, and biomass. Others explained the estimated increase in demand for electricity and the needed increase in production.
The title of the report means From Resistance to Tailwind
We will be collaborating with Danish, Swedish, Norwegian, and Finnish partners on a major research project entitled SpeedLocal. The aim is to speeding up the Nordic green transition. Together we will develop guidance tools for addressing the “not in my backyard” complexities and the challenges of integrating energy planning on the national level with implementation on the local level.
The research project is a transdisciplinary initiative. It engages experts in stakeholder engagement, policy analysis, landscape analysis, participatory processes, and energy system modelling. The final guidance tools will also reflect the results from three case studies: the Norwegian municipality of Trondelag, the Swedish municipality of Skaraborg, and the Danish municipality of Bornholm.
Emphasis on local values
In these places, the local authorities are in the process of implementing national energy policies. EML will focus on adapting the TIMES-Nordic energy system model to work on municipality levels. Also, we will work on the case study of Bornholm. Working closely together with Bornholm municipality, we will identify the barriers to green transition and strategies to overcome them.
An important dimension of the project is the emphasis on the values of local nature and landscapes. An overarching aim is thus to find ways to integrate local insights and considerations into the broader national and Nordic energy planning analyses. By doing so, the legitimacy and policy relevance could improve.
Modelling
The TIMES-Nordic model will be adapted for local cases and integrate specific constraints
Analysis
The analysis of the results will be translated into a Strategy Kit that contains instructions and guidance.
Results
The Strategy Kit can be utilized to formulate evidence-based policy recommendations.
At present, the agricultural and forestry sectors’ emissions account for almost 20% of the total global emissions. Even so, these two sectors are largely neglected in the existing energy system modelling frameworks. There is simply no available data module to enable analyses. Meanwhile, we expect that our new research project will remedy this.
The research project is named Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use Sector Modeling in TIMES (AFOLU). The result should be a demo model of a new data module. The demo model will be standardized and flexible. Thus, it will enable energy system modellers to properly model factors such as the forest capacity of CO2 uptake. Other important factors could be the consequences of replacing crops for biofuel production or optimizing irrigation systems for instance.
Energy Modelling Lab will carry out the research project together with four partners: E4SMA, the Institute for Energy Technology (IFE), University College Cork (UCC), and VITO. We expect to finalize the new module in 2025. We are receiving funding from The Energy Technology Systems Analysis Program, IEA-ETSAP.
Transformative step
Our project builds on ongoing work by Energy Modelling Lab and E4SMA to develop a demo version of the AFOLU module. The primary objective is to consolidate knowledge from various partners and create a standardized, flexible AFOLU module that can seamlessly integrate with any TIMES model.
The new module will enable the ETSAP community to conduct a more integrated, holistic scenario analysis. It will be possible to consider the dynamic interactions between energy systems and the AFOLU sector. Moreover, we see it as a transformative step toward enabling energy system modellers to address climate change impacts and designate pathways to sustainable, net-zero economies.
Duration: 2023-2025
Client: The Energy Technology Systems Analysis Program, IEA-ETSAP
Energy Modelling Lab has joined TEN21, a collaboration platform supporting district energy decarbonization. We areorganized by the Swedish Environmental Research Institute(IVL) as a collaboration between experts across the district energy value chain. The name reflects our focus: Thermal Energy Networks for 21 Degrees of Indoor Comfort, TEN21.
Heating and cooling of buildings make up for a substantial part of energy consumption and total CO2 emissions. So far, only 20% of the heating and cooling provided to European Union buildings is produced using green energy. In comparison, research has shown that 35% of the heating and cooling demand in the EU could be met by using waste heat, an asset with limited use today.
Advancing and supporting district energy decarbonization is therefore of great importance for reaching the net-zero emissions goal.
Services
The team of TEN21 has the experience, network, and expertise to deliver the services of
Committing local authorities and stakeholders
Provide a holistic analysis of local district energy systems and resources
Identify least-cost and emission solutions using the most feasible technologies
Design roadmaps and identify replicable and bankable investment projects(we identify what to invest in, how large the installation should be, when in time it should be realized, and when existing assets should be retired)
Develop models for business and finance
Approach
We tailor the energy system model TIMES to analyze city-level district energy systems. Using the model enables us to process all data on energy production, consumption, and resources as well as data on buildings, industries, transportation, land use, and other studied locations. Based on the analysis we study different scenarios and identify the optimal solutions.
We have been assigned by the Danish company Hybrid Greentech to develop a long-term forecast of ancillary services costs in Sweden. The forecast spans until 2050. At present, the electrification drive is inevitably leading to a surge in power demand. Consequently, a fundamental reconfiguration of our energy infrastructure is taking place. It must incorporate both intermittent renewables, flexible electricity demand, and the provision of ancillary services.
So far, ancillary services have often been the unsung heroes of the power sector as these essential support systems ensure grid reliability. To make the forecast, we integrated and updated previous investigations into power production and demand.
Potential innovative technologies
We took into consideration the production of green hydrogen in the Nordics. The flexibility of hydrogen production in the Nordics could be an important factor in the ancillary services market since a reduction of this production would most likely result in wider use of battery technologies.
Potential innovative technologies could also have a high impact on the market for ancillary services. For example, the increasing number of electric vehicles means a large increase in power consumption. This increase, if managed flexibly, could potentially contain a total battery capacity of 250 GWh with a charging capacity of 50 GW. Such a capacity could support all the balancing requirements in all of Sweden if the potential is fully utilized.
Electricity prices
A long-term forecast of electricity production, consumption, and prices in Sweden was part of the analysis. In general, from 2020 to 2030 Sweden is expected to be a net exporter of electricity and from 2035 and onwards to be a net importer. Concerning consumption, an increase of about 80% in consumption from industry from 2020 to 2050 is expected.
According to modelling results, the present price difference between the two Northern and the two Southern regions will decrease over time.
Modelling
We based our forecast of ancillary services costs on a qualitative assessment of research projects made by EML, assessing ancillary services markets in the TIMES models and other international research studies on the topic.
Analysis
We analyzed future power demand, the flexibility of electricity-demanding technologies in the power spot market, and the development of renewable intermittent technologies based on the integrated assessment model TIMES-NEU, a comprehensive energy system model covering the entire Northern European energy system.
Results
All results and calculations were presented in a comprehensive report to Hybrid Greentech.
Energy Modelling Lab has contributed to the background study “The Value of Early Action on Energy Efficiency”. The study is focusing on buildings and industries. We identified key energy efficiency messages that we presented at the IEA Energy Efficiency Conference 2022 (see full presentation below). The conference took place in the Danish city of Sonderborg.
In collaboration with our partners, we examined the importance of early action on energy efficiency. We considered the costs of delayed progress. Furthermore, we looked into the benefits of achieving energy efficiency milestones on the way to reaching net zero emissions by 2050. The study was contracted by the International Energy Agency and financed by Danfoss.
Key findings on early action
Early action matters. A low energy efficiency pathway would increase final energy consumption by 39%. CO2 emissions increase by 16% if action is delayed by 10 years.
Energy efficiency is the most effective measure to quickly improve energy security and lower electricity prices.
Reduced air pollution in a global net zero emissions scenario can reduce the cost of global health impacts by almost €500 bn in 2030.
Water heaters provide the biggest shifting potential and thereby CO2 emission reductions. Due to high savings and load-shifting potential, water heaters should be one of the first products to be digitized.
In process industries maintenance and simple upgrade of process plants can save 5 to 10% with very short payback time.
The use of electromagnetic sources for process heat is in an early stage but holds promising potential for saving energy with a factor of 10 or more.
We used the IEA’s Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario as a central focus and reference case for the analysis. Correspondingly, we focused on the implications and impacts of action within this decade, in all major energy-using regions globally.
Scenario analyses
We analyzed scenarios of low energy efficiency and high energy efficiency and estimated the accumulated final energy consumption, CO2 emissions, and air pollution.
Results
We presented the key findings at the International Energy Agency (IEA) Energy Efficiency Conference 2022 in the Danish city of Sønderborg.
Early action matters. A low energy efficiency pathway would increase final energy consumption by 39%. CO2 emissions increase by 16% if action is delayed by 10 years.