Author: Ida Græsted Jensen

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Modelling the Swedish energy system

Sweden has set ambitious climate targets, aiming for net-zero emissions by 2045 and negative emissions thereafter. As one of the world’s early adopters of carbon pricing and renewable energy, Sweden faces unique challenges in decarbonizing hard-to-abate sectors while maintaining its competitive industrial base and energy security.

Key challenges include phasing out remaining fossil fuel use in industry and transport, integrating variable renewables at scale, and balancing electrification with sustainable bioenergy use—all while preserving Sweden’s position as a clean energy leader.

Energy Modelling Lab has developed TIMES-SE, a comprehensive energy systems model for Sweden. This modeling framework captures the interactions between electricity, heating, industry, transport, and other key sectors. By analyzing different technology pathways and policy scenarios, TIMES-SE helps identify cost-effective strategies for deep decarbonization. The model enables exploration of optimal investment timing, technology choices, and sector coupling opportunities to support Sweden’s climate ambitions.

Building DK-BioRes

MODELLING
We have built a tailored energy systems model, the TIMES-SE, using the TIMES energy systems modelling framework developed under IEA.

The model includes a full investment catalog for the entire energy sector and shows the economically optimal pathways through the jungle of technological solutions.

SCENARIO ANALYSIS
Through a series of scenarios, we can investigate the consequences of different climate scenarios and consider prioritized mitigation actions.

DOCUMENTATION
The model documentation can be found here soon.

Duration: August 2024 – January 2026

EML Team: Ida Græsted Jensen 

Client: NA

Budget: NA

Collaborators: IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute

Model: TIMES-SE

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Newsletter winter 2023 – An inspiring visit to NY

During the past half year we have developed new features for the TIMES model framework, dived into PtX and biogas, and begun the development of a new clean model structure.

Inspired by community

The ETSAP meetup for TIMES-modellers in New York was a great inspiration. During the conference we learn of a UN-database that contains data for all countries of the world. So our new dream is to use the database to automate the model creation and build TIMES-models for all countries in the world.

Read more about the vision in the full newsletter below.

Maabjerg Bioenergy in Holstebro, Denmark.
New biogas-module

Biogas will play an increasing role in the Danish energy system. Therefore we have developed a new biogas module for the Danish Energy Agency, to ensure a detailed representation of biogas in their future mode work.

Read more about the new biogas module right here.

flows of ptx-fules

To analyse the demand and supply of green hydrogen and other synthetic fuels, we have developed a new model of Northern Europe.

The model is a combined TIMES-model that includes Denmark, Sweden, Norway, Germany, and Poland. The model also includes external trade-links to UK, Belgium, and the Netherlands.

We hope to publish some results from the analysis soon.

If you want to read the full newsletter, you can find it here:

Newsletter-Winter-2023-1Download
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New biogas module

Biogas plays an important role in the Danish energy system. That is why it is important to have a detailed representation of both existing and potential biogas technologies in the TIMES models.

Energy Modelling Lab has developed a new detailed biogas module in collaboration with The Danish Energy Agency.

Maabjerg Bioenergy in Holstebro is one of the 89 existing Danish biogas plants that has been modeled in the new biogas module.

The biogas module contains both existing and new plants

The model can now utilize the 89 existing biogas plants in Denmark, and it can choose to invest in new biogas plants when searching for solutions to cover our future energy demand.

Each plant can take classic biomasses such as manure or straw as input and generates both biogas and a fiber fraction, which can be utilized in for example pyrolysis processes. But the model is also ready to use new types of biomass like seaweed in future biogas plants.

The biogas plants in the module can each take different types of biomass as input and turn it into biogas and a fiber fraction. In the process, there is a methane (CH4) leakage depending on the age of the biogas plants.

Restrictions and regulation

A couple of restrictions have been added to the biogas plants. In this way, the model results become more realistic:

Project period: September 2022 – December 2022

EML Team: Ida Græsted Jensen and Alexandra O’Sullivan Freltoft

Client: Danish Energy Agency

Budget: DKK 265,000

Reference: Simon Brøndum Andersen

Model: IntERACT (TIMES framework)

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The future of district heating

What will the future of district heating look like when wind and solar dominate the electricity market, as expected within the coming decade?

In this analysis for Dansk Fjernvarme, Energy Modelling Lab has dived into the details of the future of district heating in Denmark. We have explored where the heat will come from, and whether our energy system will get too vulnerable without the thermal powerplants.

Our results show that the thermal power and district heating plants will close down faster than the Danish Energy Agency projected.

Key findings

In the future district heating will primarily come from large-scale heat pumps and waste heat from PtX plants and data centers.

The thermal power and heat plants are being phased out faster than the Danish Energy Agency projects.

An energy system with a low diversity comes with an increased risk of failure.

Read the full analysis here (in Danish):

Analysis: Development in thermal power and heat capacity Download
Building DK-BioRes

MODELLING
Energy Modelling Lab has updated the Danish TIMES model (TIMES-DK) to include 23 individual district heating areas and four aggregated areas.

SCENARIO ANALYSIS
Energy Modelling Lab has investigated the consequences of an upper limit in biomass used for power and heat and an upper limit in the number of PtX plants.

REPORT
All results and scenarios are collected in the report above.

Duration: 2022

EML Team: Mikkel Bosack Simonsen, Ida Græsted Jensen, Alexandra O’Sullivan Freltoft and Kenneth Karlsson

Client: Dansk Fjernvarme

Budget: DKK 350,000

Reference: Thorbjørn Nejsum, Head of Department, Dansk Fjernvarme

Model: TIMES-DK

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IEA-ETSAP Newsletter Spring 2022

In this ETSAP Newsletter Spring 2022, we share the activities that we have carried out as an active member of the modelling community. As part of the ETSAP community, Energy Modelling Lab is developing the TIMES model framework, using it for a range of projects, and sharing our experiences within the network.

PROJECTS AROUND THE GLOBE

Energy Modelling Lab has worked on models for countries around the world.

In the Nordic countries, we have both investigated paths to a climate-neutral future and dived into the shipping industry, to investigate which fuels will power the future sea transport.

In Vietnam, we have supported the local modelling team, and in Azerbaijan, we have built a full-country model from scratch, facilitated workshops with the key stakeholders with the key stakeholder in energy planning in the country, and trained local modelers to run the model.

New features in TIMES-DK

Inspired by the discussions at the ETSAP meeting in Oslo 2021, we have added energy storage in TIMES-DK.

Additionally, we have added different ancillary services to the model, such as balancing the electricity grid when the demand is greater than the supply.

Giving back to the community

We are always happy to participate in the ETSAP-community activities. After a long period of webinars, it was a relief to join the biannual ETSAP meeting in Oslo in November 2021.

Over the past year, we have also expanded the modelling community by training two new employees in the TIMES-model framework. Other than that we have supported a bachelor student from the University of Southern Denmark in a project on energy islands, three students from the Technical University of Denmark in a project on German hydrogen demand, and a Swedish PhD student on a new model of Gothenburg.

The community is growing, one modeler at a time.

If you want to read the full newsletter, you can find it here:

Newsletter-Spring-2022Download
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Net zero by 2050 in Vietnam

The Vietnamese economy is growing, and so is the demand for energy. As the country moves forward new investments in clean energy and infrastructure are highly needed. Energy Modelling Lab has developed scenarios to reach the target of net zero by 2050 in Vietnam.

The power generation and storage capacity should be 30 times higher than the current capacity.

Electricity should primarily come from solar power combined with batteries.

Power transmission should be increased by 40% compared to the present capacity.

The Vietnamese economy and energy consumption is growing.

Download the Energy Outlook Report 2021 for Vietnam

The report is written by the Electricity and Renewable Energy Authority in Vietnam (EREA) along with the Danish Energy Agency. Energy Modelling Lab has contributed to both the analysis and the report.

Vietnam Energy Outlook Report 2021Download

Duration: 2020 – 2022

EML Team: Ida Græsted Jensen, Till ben Brahim and Kenneth Karlsson

Client: This project is part of the Framework contracts with Global Cooperation at the Danish Energy Agency

Budget: DKK 410,373

Reference: Ole Emmik Søresen, Head of Divison Corporation the Danish Energy Agency

Collaborators: Ea Energy Analyses, Institute of Energy, E4SMA, Aarhus University

Model: TIMES

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The role of fossil gas in the Nordics

We participated in a research project exploring the role of fossil gas in the Nordics. The challenge of reducing the dependency on fossil gas differs between the Nordic countries. Therefore each country has its own set of challenges to solve.

Norway exports while Sweden and Finland import gas

Denmark is connected to central Europe and receives the gas mix in the grid from both Russia and Norway. (The Danish gas production is temporarily low due to maintenance of the Tyra Field).

Finland gets gas directly from Russia and through Estonia.

Norway exports a large amount of gas mainly to central Europe and partly to the Danish grid.

Sweden gets gas from the European grid through Denmark.

The import and export of fossil gas in the Nordic countries (2020). Source: Eurostat
Fossil gas use differs between the nordic countries

In Denmark around 350,000 buildings are heated by gas, and switching to district heating or heat pumps is a major task in the years to come.

Finland primarily uses gas for electricity and heat production and industry, especially pulp and paper and iron, and steel production consumes large amounts of gas. Switching to green energy sources in these processes is the primary task for Finland.

Norway does not have a high domestic gas use in the society as such, but fossil fuel extraction uses a large amount of gas today. Electrification of energy production can reduce fossil gas consumption substantially.

Sweden mainly uses gas for non-energy purposes such as fertilizer and plastics, but also for process heat in iron and steel production, chemical industry, and pulp and paper production.

The use of fossil gas differs between the Nordic countries. Source: Eurostat

If you want to dive into more details on the role of fossil gas in the Nordic countries, you can find the full analysis here:

The role of fossil gas in the NordicsDownload

Duration: 2022

Client: NEPP (North European Energy Perspectives Project)

Partners: Swedish Environmental Research Institute (IVL) and Energiforsk

EML team: Kenneth Karlsson

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Data Center Waste Heat

In the future, Dublin will be heated by recycling thermal energy. Photo: Salim Darwiche (Wikipedia Commons)

In the Tallaght area of Dublin, there is a data center that needs cooling. At the same time, the surrounding households need heating. This is a perfect case for a mutually beneficial thermal energy network.  

It is also a perfect project for TEN21, a collaboration that Energy Modelling Lab is a partner of. In Dublin, the TEN21 toolbox has been used to support local officials on how to expand the district heating network to utilize waste heat from the data center. We have built an energy system model to find an efficient expansion strategy from a techno-economic perspective. In addition, we created a strategy for commercializing the district heating activity on a cost-recovery basis.  

All of this has been done in close dialogue with South Dublin County Council and Dublin’s Energy Agency to ensure that the work will have a real-world impact. 

The TEN21 project is assisting cities all over Europe to deliver climate-friendly thermal energy.

Sewage as part of the future heating and cooling

If you want to learn more about recycling heat from for example sewage, metros, and datacenters, then go to TEN21.eu.

This is an example of a thermal energy network. Here, waste from several sources is recycled as heating for public buildings. You can read more at TEN21.eu.
Building DK-BioRes

MODELLING DUBLIN

We developed an optimization model within the TIMES framework.

It first and foremost covers the heat and power sector in Dublin. But this model has an especially high level of detail.

NEUTRAL SCENARIOS

Energy Modelling Lab developed a series of CO2-neutral scenarios for cooling and heating in Dublin.

In this way, we can identify the perfect fit for each district.

Duration: April 2021

Project: TEN21

Partners: South Dublin County Council, Dublin’s Energy Agency (CODEMA)

EML Team: Ida Græsted Jensen and Andrea Marin Radoszynski

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A mosaic of district heating sources

The climate agenda, new technologies, and geopolitical uncertainties all affect the energy system. District heating is a hot topic, and energy planners around the world are looking to Denmark for inspiration. In the future, our homes will be heated by a mosaic of district heating sources.

The mosaic will feature excess heat from data centers, Power-to-X, or Carbon Capture plants. The heat source can also be local sewage and waste from agriculture.

We help cities and district heating providers plan for the future of district heating.

Building DK-BioRes

MODELLING
We gather information about the current heating system and the local resources when we model a district heating area. Based on that we create a local optimization module within one of our national models.

SCENARIO ANALYSIS
In a collaboration between the client and the modelling team, we identify a series of potential paths to a sustainable district heating system.

A COLLECTION OF PATHS
The investment paths are gathered in a final report, which gives the client an overview of the different options.

Energy Modelling Lab Contact: Kenneth Karlsson

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Clean Nordic shipping

With a combined coastline of 43.000 km trading and traveling by sea is essential in the Nordic countries. At present, the maritime industry is facing a challenging green transition, diverting away from fossil fuels towards renewable energy sources. Probing the possibilities for clean Nordic shipping is more relevant than ever.

There are many possible paths to a sustainable Nordic shipping industry. Energy Modelling Lab is involved in the HOPE project, launched by Nordic Energy Research. The full name of the project is Hydrogen Fuel Cells Solutions in shipping in relation to other low-carbon options – a Nordic perspective.

HOPE analyses alternatives for CO2-neutral marine fuels and propulsion technologies from a Nordic point of view, by assessing the role of hydrogen and fuel cell solutions in relation to other low or zero-carbon fuel options.

SCENARIO ANALYSIS
Through a series of scenario studies, the Nordic energy model (ON-TIMES) is used to find the optimal paths to a fossil-free shipping industry.

TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT
The project has a special focus on hydrogen and fuel cells in relation to the other low-carbon options.

Duration: November 2021 – February 2023

EML team: Kenneth Karlsson, Andrea Marin Radoszynski & Alexandra O’Sullivan Freltoft

Partners: IVL – Svenska Miljöinstitutet

Client: Nordic Energy Research

Budget: DKK 148,000

Reference: Julie Hansson, Senior Project Manager

Model: The Open Nordic TIMES model (ON-TIMES) can be found open source in our GitHub repository.