There is a great flurry of activity to report on in our Newsletter 2024. As a new development, we have strengthened our expertise in building models representing local entities such as district heating networks, municipalities, islands, and building complexes.
Furthermore, we have continued developing a new module for the TIMES Modelling Framework representing the AFOLU sector (Agriculture, Forestry, Land Use). We have also continued to collaborate on the research projects MissionGreenFuels and SpeedLocal.
In total, we have been working on no less than 12 models. We have built four new TIMES models, updated and further developed three models, started working on two models, and supervised the creation of three models.
This collective research paper proposes a novel framework to be applied when modelling hydrogen in sector-coupled energy systems.
Hydrogen is expected to play a key role in achieving a carbon-neutral energy system in the future. Therefore, the modelling of hydrogen is becoming an increasingly integrated part of sector-coupled energy system modelling tools. However, results from different models and scenarios show different needs for hydrogen infrastructure and the deployment of electrolyzers. There is, therefore, an urgent need for transparent communication of the main modelling features and input data that can impact the results related to hydrogen production in national energy systems.
The paper was posted on SSRN, on December 21, 2024.
EML-Team: Kenneth Karlsson and Andrea Marin Radoszynski
Collaborators: Marie Münster, DTU; Rasmus Bramstoft, DTU; Lars Bregnbæk, Nicolas Campion, DTU; Mathias Kjærgård Christensen, and Dimitrios Eleftheriou, Christos Koumparakis, DTU; Ioannis Kountouris, DTU; Jakob Zinck Thellufsen, Aalborg University; Meng Yuan, Aalborg University, and Henrik Lund, Aalborg University.
We have co-authored the article City Energy Planning: Modeling Long-Term Strategies under System Uncertainties. The article was published in Energy Strategy Reviews, Volume 56, November 2024.
The study explores the role of city energy plans on future cost-efficient energy systems. A technology-rich cost-optimization model was developed using TIMES with intra-sectoral and inter-sectoral interactions and applied to the Gothenburg energy system.
The model outcomes are investigated with the application of policy-driven scenarios. The model is further tested under system uncertainties and price sensitivities identified using a participatory approach.
Collaborators: Professor Erik Ahlgren, Department of Space, Earth, and Environment, and PhD student Kushagra Gupta, Chalmers University of Technology, Sweden
We have made a quantitative impact assessment related to load distribution for Varmelast. The impact assessment is part of the project Load Distribution based on Contract Prices. The project aims to improve the competitiveness of district heating.
Varmelast has published the EML report on Varmelast.dk.
We have supported the Report, Denmark’s Climate Targets 2050, published by the Danish Climate Council in August 2024. The Report contains an analysis of four scenarios for the future of Denmark. The scenarios have been generated using the DK-BioRes model as one of the tools.
Energy Modelling Lab developed the DK-BioRes model in 2021 as a project under the Danish Energy Agency. We have updated the model and integrated new technologies. We have also built up the capacity of the experts of the Danish Climate Council to use the model.
The Power Decisions Game provides a first-of-its-kind open-source infrastructure. It allows non-modellers to explore the impact of key decisions and preferences on the design of the future European power system. Furthermore, it provides insights into the consequences of short-sighted decision-making. The game can be used to facilitate policy-science discussions.
The game is based on more than 1700 scenarios. The scenarios have been run through an open-source and accessible, yet technologically detailed, myopic energy system optimization model for the electricity supply in the EU27 + 3.
The game allows the user to take the role of a decision-maker and make decisions in 2020, 2030, and 2040 regarding the usage of CCS, biomass imports, cross-border electricity transmission, and the pace of emission reductions.
The user is then presented with the economic, social, and environmental impacts of these choices. These impacts are, for example, measured and illustrated in the development of accumulated CO2 emissions per capita, levelised cost of electricity, and investment need per citizen.
Project:REEEM (Role of Technologies in an Energy-Efficient Economy – Model-based analysis of Policy Measures and transformation pathways to a Sustainable Energy System)
Viet Nam Energy Outlook Report 2023 shows that the country is working steadfastly to reach net zero by 2050. Simultaneously, the country faces the challenge of a fast-growing economy and a huge increase in electricity demand.
One of the keys to this successful development is strategic energy planning. Subsequently, the Vietnamese government uses the TIMES-Vietnam energy systems model and the Balmorel-Vietnam for decision-making.
We have supported the development of the TIMES-Vietnam model for almost 10 years through our engagements in the Partnership Programme between Viet Nam and Denmark, headed by the Danish Energy Agency.
Regarding the Outlook Report, we have developed scenarios for the analyses. We have also assisted the Vietnamese authorities in building up their planning capacities. To this end, we have updated the technology catalog. The catalog has been integrated into the TIMES-VNM model. It includes technologies not yet being used in Viet Nam.
Some of the key takeaways of the Viet Nam Energy Outlook Report are
• The green energy transition is cost-efficient for Viet Nam • A steady increase in renewable energy investments is required from today • Energy efficiency is a cost-effective option to reach the net-zero target
We have contributed to developing scenarios for CONCITO, a major Danish green think tank, and documented the work in the report “The Danish Bioresource”. CONCITO has analyzed the scenarios in the report The Importance of Agriculture for Future Land Use (Jordbrugets Betydning for Fremtidens Arealanvendelse), published in May 2024.
The scenarios represent different visions of land use in Denmark. The scenarios consider major concerns regarding sustainability, climate neutrality, and natural resources.
The Danish agricultural sector is facing the green transition and many ideas have been proposed to reach climate-neutral agriculture in Denmark by 2050. In this brief, we suggest two pathways to climate neutrality to follow the general goals of a 70% reduction in 2030 and a 100% reduction in 2050.
70% greenhouse gas reduction by 2030
100% greenhouse gas neutral by 2050
No animal feed import by 2050
Technology-optimistic or technology-independent
The first scenario is a technology-optimistic scenario, while the second scenario to a larger extent can reach the goals without technological development. In both scenarios, a large increase in the forest areas is necessary such that the forest area in 2050 is approximately double the area of today.
In the technology-optimistic scenario, the amount of farm animals can be kept at the same level as today because the biogas and pyrolysis plants can reduce part of the emissions and the forests compensate for the rest of the emissions. In the technology-independent scenario, it is necessary to reduce the amount of farm animals to reach the climate targets.
Key figures
FOREST 1.000.000 ha, roughly 23% of the Danish land mass, must be covered in forest by 2050.
The forestation should happen sooner rather than later so 160.000 – 200.000 ha should be converted into forest already by 2030.
LOW LAND AREAS 100.000 ha of carbon-rich lowland soil should be converted into natural areas by 2030.
All 178.700 ha low land soil must be converted into nature by 2050.
ANIMALS In a technology-optimistic scenario, with a sharp increase in forest area, animal production can remain the same size as today.
In a technology-independent scenario a 15% reduction in animal production by 2030, and a 30% reduction in 2050 relative to today is necessary.
If the steep forest area does not happen, a further reduction in animal production is necessary.
The Vietnamese economy is growing, and so is the energy demand. As the country moves forward new investments in clean energy and infrastructure are highly needed.
Energy Modelling Lab supports the Vietnamese government in developing and implementing a long-term energy strategy. We have updated and expanded an advanced energy systems model for Vietnam, the TIMES-Vietnam model.
MODELLING Energy Modelling Lab has further developed the transport sector in the energy systems model for Vietnam, TIMES-Vietnam.
The model connects all relevant sectors from energy and heating to transport, industry, and health.
SCENARIO ANALYSIS The model is used for long-term energy systems and climate policy planning. The scenarios show different paths to reach the Vietnamese government’s climate targets.
REPORT The scenario results serve as a foundation for the development of the Vietnam Energy Outlook report, showing the path ahead for the Vietnamese energy system.
