Energy Modelling Lab analysed the future energy market in Northern Europe developing under the green transition, an assignment from COWI. The analysis has been used as a reference in the report “Roadmap to a Future, Danish Hydrogen Infrastructure”, published by the CIP Foundation in May 2023.
Covering Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Germany, Poland, the Netherlands, Belgium and the UK, the analysis probes the potential future markets for energy and fuels, including PtX fuels, from now until 2050. Based on data from the Danish Energy Agency, Danish electricity production is expected to increase by almost 900% by 2050, primarily from offshore wind parks expected to be established at planned “energy islands”, two to three in the North Sea and one in the Baltic Sea, alongside electrolysis facilities assumed to be sited there too.
Domestic electricity demand is expected to remain almost constant due to energy saving measures, but the overall expected increase could be about sevenfold by 2050 due to planned PtX facility expansion, with the bulk of potential electricity production used for green hydrogen production for export. Denmark could potentially produce one third of the total green hydrogen produced across the area covered by the analysis, worth an estimated 100 billion DKK per year.
Demand for hydrogen in Northern Europe is estimated to grow dramatically, with the Netherlands, Belgium and Germany forecast as the main purchasers, on the assumption that Germany’s own hydrogen production capacity remains limited because Danish offshore wind produces slightly cheaper electricity than German facilities. An alternative scenario not included in the published analysis showed Sweden could become the main purchaser of Danish produced hydrogen by 2050, given higher production costs there than in Denmark.
Updating the Open Nordic TIMES model (ON-TIMES) and developing it further into the Northern Europe TIMES model (TIMES-NEU), part of the internationally recognised TIMES energy systems modelling framework developed by an IEA working group.
Close collaboration with COWI and Brinckmann throughout the assignment, refining the scenario assumptions ahead of publication.
Results and scenarios collected in the report “Roadmap to a Future, Danish Hydrogen Infrastructure”, published by the CIP Foundation, informing Denmark’s hydrogen infrastructure investment planning.
Client: COWI
Reference: Claus C. Rebien, Vice President, COWI
Collaborators: Brinckmann
EML team: Kenneth Karlsson, Ida Græsted Jensen and Andrea Marin Radoszynski
Budget: DKK 450,000
Duration: 2022 to 2023
Model: TIMES-NEU