What will the future of district heating look like when wind and solar dominate the electricity market, as expected within the coming decade? In this analysis for Dansk Fjernvarme, Energy Modelling Lab explored where future heat will come from, and whether the energy system will become too vulnerable without thermal power plants.
The results show that thermal power and district heating plants will close down faster than the Danish Energy Agency projected, with future district heating primarily coming from large-scale heat pumps and waste heat from PtX plants and data centres, and that an energy system with low diversity carries an increased risk of failure.
Future district heating will primarily come from large-scale heat pumps and waste heat from PtX plants and data centres. Thermal power and heat plants are being phased out faster than the Danish Energy Agency projects, and an energy system with low diversity comes with an increased risk of failure.
Energy Modelling Lab updated the Danish TIMES model, TIMES-DK, to include 23 individual district heating areas and four aggregated areas.
The analysis investigated the consequences of an upper limit on biomass used for power and heat and an upper limit on the number of PtX plants.
All results and scenarios are collected in a full report published by Dansk Fjernvarme, providing an evidence base for future district heating policy.
Client: Dansk Fjernvarme
Reference: Thorbjørn Nejsum, Head of Department, Dansk Fjernvarme
EML team: Mikkel Bosack Simonsen, Ida Græsted Jensen, Alexandra O’Sullivan Freltoft, Kenneth Karlsson
Budget: DKK 350,000
Duration: 2022
Model: TIMES-DK