Jordan is considered among the world’s most vulnerable countries to drought as a result of climate change, facing aridity, water scarcity, heavy reliance on fossil energy imports, and rapid population growth and urbanisation. The government is addressing the need to transition to a greener and more resilient economy, with a National Long-Term Low Emission Strategy and Options Report 2050 as one key step. Energy Modelling Lab is contributing to this work by building a tailored energy systems model, TIMES-JO, representing eight key sectors and their interconnections.
Baseline scenarios are used to estimate the impact of different decarbonisation options, from which a shortlist of the least cost and most feasible options is drawn to designate optimal pathways for the country.
A series of scenarios is used to investigate the consequences of different climate pathways and consider prioritised mitigation actions, alongside socioeconomic and environmental co-benefits such as improved health and energy savings. The final report proposes optimal decarbonisation pathways and policy recommendations, validated through workshops with key stakeholders, so that the Jordanian government has a solid basis for an informed decision process going forward.
TIMES-JO includes a full investment catalogue for the entire energy sector and identifies the economically optimal pathways across the available technological solutions. EML built the model following the TIMES framework developed under ETSAP.
Scenarios are used to compare decarbonisation options and prioritise mitigation actions, identifying socioeconomic and environmental co-benefits such as improved health and energy savings alongside costs.
The report’s policy recommendations are validated through stakeholder workshops, and local partner capacity is built to use and update the model, giving the Jordanian government a continuously informed decision process.
Client: The World Bank
Reference: Karsten Holm, Danish Energy Management
Collaborators: Danish Energy Management (DEM) and the Water, Energy, and Environment Center (WEEC) of the University of Jordan
EML team: Kenneth Karlsson, Mikkel Bosack Simonsen, Ida Græsted Jensen
Budget: DKK 679,250
Duration: August 2022 to June 2024
Model: TIMES-JO