Agriculture and forestry account for almost 20 percent of global emissions, yet these two sectors are largely missing from existing energy system modelling frameworks, simply because no data module exists to support the analysis. Our new research project, Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use Sector Modelling in TIMES (AFOLU), is designed to close that gap.
The project will deliver a demo model of a new data module, standardised and flexible enough to let energy system modellers properly represent factors such as the CO2 uptake capacity of forests, the consequences of switching crops to biofuel production, or the optimisation of irrigation systems.
We are carrying out the project with four partners: E4SMA, the Institute for Energy Technology (IFE), University College Cork (UCC) and VITO, funded by the Energy Technology Systems Analysis Program (IEA-ETSAP) and expected to finish in 2025.
The work builds on earlier work by Energy Modelling Lab and E4SMA on a demo version of the AFOLU module, and its main objective is to consolidate what the partners already know into a standardised, flexible module that can plug into any TIMES model, letting the ETSAP community run more integrated, holistic scenario analysis that captures the dynamic interaction between energy systems and the AFOLU sector.
The AFOLU module is built to integrate directly with the TIMES energy systems modelling framework, developed under the IEA-ETSAP programme.
We are consolidating knowledge across four partner organisations into one standardised module, tested for how well it captures the interaction between energy systems and land use, forestry and agriculture.
Once complete, the module will help energy system modellers factor climate change impacts into their analysis and chart pathways to sustainable, net-zero economies.
Client: The Energy Technology Systems Analysis Program (IEA-ETSAP)
Reference: Kathleen Vaillancourt
Collaborators: E4SMA, Institute for Energy Technology (IFE), University College Cork (UCC), VITO
EML team: Kenneth Karlsson, Ida Græsted Jensen
Budget: EURO 68,000
Duration: 2023 to 2025
Model: TIMES