Varmelast handles load dispatching of heat production for the greater Copenhagen area, organised as a cooperation between CTR, VEKS and HOFOR, the three largest municipally owned heating companies in the region. Energy Modelling Lab carried out a quantitative impact assessment for Varmelast as part of the Load Distribution based on Contract Prices project, aimed at improving the competitiveness of district heating. The assessment compared the pricing of different load distribution systems to identify the lowest possible heating prices, and the resulting report has been published on Varmelast.dk.

Energy Modelling Lab built TIMES-Varmelast, an optimisation model based on the TIMES framework, to compare a load distribution system based on contract prices against the existing system, which minimises the total costs of running the plants. The model runs at hourly resolution across 8760 hours a year and represents the greater Copenhagen district heating area in detail, across 98 regions covering supply, transmission and demand. The analysis examines the total variable heat payment in 2030 under the two systems, and tests how electricity and fuel price assumptions affect future heat prices and production.