During the past half year we have developed new features for the TIMES model framework, dived into PtX and biogas, and begun the development of a new clean model structure.
Inspired by community
The ETSAP meetup for TIMES-modellers in New York was a great inspiration. During the conference we learn of a UN-database that contains data for all countries of the world. So our new dream is to use the database to automate the model creation and build TIMES-models for all countries in the world.
Read more about the vision in the full newsletter below.
Biogas will play an increasing role in the Danish energy system. Therefore we have developed a new biogas module for the Danish Energy Agency, to ensure a detailed representation of biogas in their future mode work.
The biogas module contains both existing and new plants
The model can now utilize the 89 existing biogas plants in Denmark, and it can choose to invest in new biogas plants, when searching for solutions to cover our future energy demand.
Each plant can take classic biomasses such as manure or straw as input and generates both biogas and a fiber fraction, which can be utilized in for example pyrolysis processes. But the model is also ready to use new types of biomass like seaweed in future biogas plants.
Restrictions and regulation
A couple restrictions have been added to the biogas plants. In this way the model results become more realistic:
A maximum dry matter content for each biogas plant.
In the near future wind and solar will take over the electricity market. As a result the thermal power and district heating plants will close down faster than the Danish Energy Agency projects.
In this analysis for Dansk Fjernvarme, Energy Modelling Lab has dived into the details of the future of district heating in Denmark, to explore where the heat will come from, and if our energy system will get too vulnerable without the thermal powerplants.
In the future district heating will primarily come from large scale heat pumps and surplus heat from PtX-plants and data centers.
The thermal power and heat plants are being phased out faster than the Danish Energy Agency projects.
An energy system with a low diversity comes with an increased risk of failure.
In Vietnam we have supported the local modelling team, and in Azerbaijan we have build a full country model from scratch, facilitated workshops with the key stakeholders with the key stakeholder in energy planning in the country and trained local modelers to run the model.
New features in TIMES-DK
Inspired by the discussions at the ETSAP meeting in Oslo 2021, we have added energy storage in TIMES-DK.
Additionally we have added different ancillary services to the model, such as balancing the electricity grid when the demand is greater than the supply.
Over the past year we have also expanded the modelling community by training two new employees in the TIMES-model framework. Other than that we have supported a bachelor student from University of Southern Denmark in a project on energy islands, three students from the Technical University of Denmark in a project on German hydrogen demand and a Swedish PhD student on a new model of Gothenburg.
The community is growing, one modeler at a time.
If you want to read the full newsletter, you can find it here:
The challenge of reducing the dependency of fossil gas differs between the Nordic countries. Therefore each country has its own set of challenges to solve.
Norway exports while Sweden and Finland imports gas
Denmark is connected to central Europe and receives the gas mix in the grid from both Russia and Norway. (The Danish gas production is temporarily low due to maintenance of the Tyra Field).
Finland gets gas directly from Russia and through Estonia.
Norway exports a large amount of gas mainly to central Europe and partly to the Danish grid.
Sweden gets gas from the European grid through Denmark.
Fossil gas use differs between the nordic countries
In Denmark around 350,000 buildings are heated by gas, and switching to district heating or heat pumps is a major task in the years to come.
Finland primarily uses gas for electricity and heat production and industry, especially pulp and paper and iron and steal production consumes large amounts of gas. Switching to green energy sources in these processes is the primary task for Finland.
Norway does not have a high domestic gas use in the society as such, but the fossil fuel extraction uses a large amount of gas today. Electrification of the energy production can reduce the fossil gas consumption substantially.
Sweden mainly use gas for non-energy purposes such as fertilizer and plastics, but also for process heat in the iron and steal production, chemical industry and pulp and paper production.
If you want to dive into more details on the role of fossil gas in the Nordic countries, you can find the full analysis here. The analysis is made in collaboration with IVL and Energiforsk.
The possibilities for sustainable heating and cooling are many, but where is central heating the best option? And what local heat sources are available in different areas? These are some of the questions we are going to help answer in Dublin.
A cool collaboration
Energy Modelling Lab has joined the TEN21 project. Here we are going to help cities all over Europe deliver climate friendly thermal energy.
TEN21 consists of a strong team. Firstly energy modelers build a digital version of the heat system. Thereafter we use the model output to create net zero scenarios. Finally investment experts step in to ensure the plans can become reality. This ensures the entire development path from early planning to financing the implementation.
Sewage as part of the future heating and cooling?
If you want to learn more about recycling heat from for example sewage, metros, and datacenters, then go to TEN21.eu.
MODELLING DUBLIN We develop an optimization model within the TIMES-framework.
First and foremost covers the heat and power sector in Dublin. But this model has an especially high level of detail.
NEUTRAL SCENARIOS Energy Modelling Lab is developing a series of CO2-neutral scenarios for cooling and heating in Dublin.
In this way we can find the perfect fit for each district.
The climate agenda, new technologies, and geopolitical uncertainties all affect the energy system. District heating is a hot topic, and energy planners around the world are looking to Denmark for inspiration.
Local heat resources
In the future our homes are heated from a variety of sources. It can be excess heat from data centers, Power-to-X, or Carbon Capture plants. Or the heat source can be local sewage or waste from agriculture.
We help cities and district heating providers plan for the future of district heating.
MODELLING We gather information about the current heating system and the local resources when we model a district heating area. Based on that we create a local optimization module within one of our national models.
SCENARIO ANALYSIS In a collaboration between the client and the modelling team we identify a series of potential paths to a sustainable district heating system.
A COLLECTION OF PATHS The investment paths are gathered in a final report, which gives the client an overview of the different options.